tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62146540881650863332024-03-13T02:08:19.307-07:00Project Management 101 BootcampGEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-50353924732906742016-12-06T09:27:00.000-08:002016-12-18T01:41:49.683-08:00PM101: Course Aims, Outline, Scope & Sequence (also, key resources)<br />
<b>MOTIVATION:</b> The Caribbean region is a developing region, which makes development oriented projects especially important. Accordingly, it is helpful to set up a workshop that will help people in our region achieve initial capability to develop and implement projects. Hence, this workshop: Project Management Bootcamp. There is no pretence at being made into experts in just one workshop, but first level proficiency is also important. As UNIT 2 notes:<br />
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". . . our <i><b>focus</b></i> is on
</blockquote>
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<blockquote>
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(1) equipping a participant in this workshop with perspectives and tools to initiate and start up [then carry out] a fairly simple project, and </blockquote>
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(2) to equip such a person to appreciate and work with the qualified and
certified professionals leading a more complex project." </blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br />
<b>AIM:</b> To provide basic, functionally oriented familiarity with and initial proficiency in project management concepts and skills, for undertaking simple development-oriented projects. Also, to allow participants to appreciate what is required to manage more substantial projects, so that such individuals will be able to work with those who are managing more complex and elaborate projects. Where, no,<i> <span style="background-color: yellow;">this is specifically NOT a PRINCE2 Foundations preparatory course</span></i><span style="background-color: yellow;">.</span> <br />
<br />
<b>OUTLINE/SYNOPSIS:</b> Project Management -- what is that? why? who? where? when? Preparation: initiating and starting up a project -- how, phase 1. Getting to agreement and obtaining funding. Setting up and carrying out simple projects. Implementation and Management. Completion and evaluation, with lessons learned. Face to face workshop. Student projects. Where to go from here.<br />
<br />
<b>SCOPE & SEQUENCE:</b> This online and face to face workshop short course is intended to cover the following topics in the following sequence, with room for options or selections, or for use in a 1:1 tutorial setting to assist people working with projects:<br />
<ul class="posts">
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u1-project-management-what-why.html">PM101 U1: Project Management -- What, Why, Who, Where, When</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u2-project-initiation-and-start-up.html">PM101 U2: Project Initiation and Start-up</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u3-getting-to-agreement-to.html">PM101 U3: Getting to Agreement to Implement and ob...</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u4-implementing-and-managing.html">PM101 U4: Implementing and Managing a Project</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u5-completion-evaluation-lessons.html">PM101 U5: Completion, Evaluation & Lessons Learned...</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u6-workshop.html">PM101 U6: Workshop</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pm101bootcamp.blogspot.com/2016/12/pm101-u7-summary-outlook-challenge.html">PM101 U7: Summary, Outlook & Challenge</a></li>
</ul>
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<b>-END-</b><br />
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<b>PS:</b> It is helpful to list . . .</div>
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<b> Some key reference resources</b></h3>
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<b>1: Tasmanian Government Project Management Resources:</b></div>
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A main resource for this workshop, <a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/project_management">here</a>. (Especially note, the Guidelines, templates and fact sheets etc <a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/project_management/supporting_resources">here</a>. [Some of these will be linked at appropriate points in the text.] The project life cycle stage by stage resources <a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/project_management/project_life">here</a>, are also helpful.) </div>
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<b>2: Tasmanian Government Project Management Guidelines:</b></div>
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An excellent text on PM from the resource just above, <a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/project_management/tasmanian_government_project_management_guidelines">here</a>. If there is a "textbook" for this workshop, this is it, so please download and save the PDF.</div>
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<b>3: Archived, Polish Ministry of the Environment Project and Project Cycle Management Resource:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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A fondly remembered oldie but goodie, now preserved <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20051224000216/http://www.mos.gov.pl/mos/publikac/Raporty_opracowania/manual/">here</a>. Particularly note the examples and case studies -- many of them real world. Kudos to the Wayback Machine!</div>
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<b>4: EU Project Cycle Management Guidelines:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
A go-to on project cycle management and linked issues on development programmes. If you need to think about development, aid, projects, programmes, policy and challenges, start <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/sites/devco/files/methodology-aid-delivery-methods-project-cycle-management-200403_en_2.pdf">here</a>.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>5: Project Management Institute (PMI) Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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The PMBOK guide is a world-class go-to reference and toolbox from the professional society behind the Project Management Professional (PMP) qualification framework. The latest edition (the fifth) can be bought <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Project-Management-Knowledge-PMBOK-Fifth/dp/1935589679/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1482003741&sr=8-1&keywords=PMBOK+guide">here</a>, at Amazon.</div>
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<b> 6: UK Gov't BERR Guidelines for Project Management:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20090609003228/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file40647.pdf">Here</a>. Before there was Axelos, there was BERR as owner of the PRINCE system.
Accordingly, it is well worth taking time to look at framework that
gives the pattern of thought behind PRINCE2, and which is a useful
overview in its own right -- one that is particularly helpful in
learning "PRINCE2-speak." </div>
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<b>7: PRINCE2 Wiki:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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A good online reference for all things PRINCE2, <a href="http://prince2.wiki/PRINCE2">here</a>. Note, the list of online manuals with links, <a href="http://prince2.wiki/PRINCE2_Manual_PDF">here</a>. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>8: PRINCE2 Glossary:</b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.axelos.com/Corporate/media/Files/Glossaries/PRINCE2-2009-Glossary-of-terms_GB-v1-1.pdf">Here</a>. Necessary, period. Download and save this, too.</div>
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<b>9: The NASA Project, Programme and Systems Engineering-related handbooks:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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This trove of documents gives a survey of a rich and distinguished tradition in project and programme management, which may be intuitively more familiar to many than the PRINCE2 approach. Key works:<br />
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<a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20150000400.pdf">Space Flight Projects and Programmes Handbook</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/npg_img/N_PR_7120_005E_/N_PR_7120_005E_.pdf">Space Flight Projects and Programmes Requirements</a> (a companion)<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.acqnotes.com/Attachments/NASA%20Systems%20Engineering%20Handbook,%202007.pdf">Systems Engineering Handbook</a> (a technical guide to designing socio-technical systems)<br />
<br />
<a href="http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/npg_img/N_PD_1000_000B_/N_PD_1000_000B_.pdf">Governance and Strategic Management Handbook</a>.</blockquote>
<b>10: The DSDM Atern, Agile Project Management Handbook:</b><br />
<br />
A well thought through agile perspective. <a href="https://www.agilebusiness.org/resources/dsdm-handbooks/dsdm-atern-handbook-2008">Here</a>.</div>
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vvv <b><br /></b></div>
</div>
GEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-55621626668633204182016-12-06T09:25:00.000-08:002016-12-31T01:15:01.523-08:00PM101 U1: Project Management -- What, Why, Who, Where & When?xxx<br />
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<br />
<br />
xxx<br />
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<b>INTRODUCTION:</b> If you have ever planned a wedding, moved house (or <u>built</u> one!) or even just planned a beach trip, you are already familiar with the basic idea behind<b> <i>projects</i></b>. In a nutshell:<i> trying to achieve a definite, unique result of some importance, in a limited time, with limited resources</i>.<br />
<br />
More formally, <i><b>a project</b> is </i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>(a) a time-limited set of efforts and activities, </i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>(b) that requires appropriate resources, planning and organisation, </i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>(c) which are directed towards a definite goal; and, </i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>(d) produce a unique deliverable result towards gaining desired onward benefits</i>. </blockquote>
Where also, the <i><b><a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/147511/Tasmanian_Government_Project_Management_Guidelines_V7_0_July_2011_2.pdf">Tasmanian Government Project Management Guidelines</a></b></i> (2011)-- a main reference for this workshop (please, download) -- provides a key pair of observations: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A <b>project</b> is a group of interrelated activities that are planned and then executed in a certain sequence to create a unique product or service to defined quality criteria within a specific timeframe, in order to achieve planned and agreed outcomes . . . . The structure of a project will vary depending on the benefits it is intended to provide. It may even be necessary to restructure a project into a number of sub-projects or establish a program of projects to achieve these benefits. [pp. 9 - 10]<br />
<br />
<b>Project management</b> is a structured way of managing change [through implementing projects]. It focuses on developing specifically defined Project Outputs that are to be delivered by a certain time, to a defined quality and with a given level of resources so that planned Project Outcomes are achieved. Effective project management is essential for the success of a project.<br />
<br />
In applying any general project management methodology, it is important to consider the corporate and business culture that forms a particular project’s environment. [p. 10] </blockquote>
Already, this brings us face to face with the notorious <i><b>Iron Triangle</b></i> of Project Management:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmmiQE0cxhVR8sTVDdrGIPHtMSEW6W7uJ1DGV7Z2C32-aQBHxCz704f-Z7WXyB2pB2-6toCIte3dRbWINXxXv4Xv2wzdgrWdIXWUCrmX3LTl7j-sAHp3KHz_4l-Zts2caWTaeYwG6gu5PP/s1600/irontriangle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmmiQE0cxhVR8sTVDdrGIPHtMSEW6W7uJ1DGV7Z2C32-aQBHxCz704f-Z7WXyB2pB2-6toCIte3dRbWINXxXv4Xv2wzdgrWdIXWUCrmX3LTl7j-sAHp3KHz_4l-Zts2caWTaeYwG6gu5PP/s640/irontriangle.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
In effect: <i>good, cheap, fast -- pick any two (you will pay for it with the third)</i>.<br />
<br />
A common solution is to go for generations of product. That is, we seek to deliver an initial product of reasonable quality in good time, then extend the scope later on. But, judging and delivering "reasonable" performance/quality in "good" time can be tricky indeed. And thereby hangs the challenge, study, science and practice -- nowadays, even, profession -- of <i><b>project management</b></i>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Background: What is Project Management about? <br /> (Why the fuss and bother?)</b></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1ufxx1YzIEwpa0oqkBugGfMHs9OXr9z0-lcSfcGXzq6r3b5XrPbkilyQokNIpfPodIWsjP5J1i_9kSzj-O18ch_AR48-BFcPajs_qlXEmgRMvSousaj2SJBSDLnd5s_2Ds7u9KemXytYi/s1600/pyramids_today.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1ufxx1YzIEwpa0oqkBugGfMHs9OXr9z0-lcSfcGXzq6r3b5XrPbkilyQokNIpfPodIWsjP5J1i_9kSzj-O18ch_AR48-BFcPajs_qlXEmgRMvSousaj2SJBSDLnd5s_2Ds7u9KemXytYi/s400/pyramids_today.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
The Pyramids of Egypt (and of course Noah's famous Ark that was 120 years in the building) stand in testimony to just how ancient project management is. And, of how long the benefits of a successful project may last -- including, in unexpected ways.<br />
<br />
Today, the Pharaohs are long gone (and their mummies long since had to be moved into caves hidden in the Valley of the Kings . . . with the tomb-looters following hot on their heels!). The Pyramids of Giza near Cairo have long been stripped of their shining polished limestone facings, and these grand artificial mountains were equally long since vanadalised otherwise for building materials etc. But, they are now major tourism assets.<br />
<br />
One rather doubts that there was a Steering Committee meeting in the days of Khufu, in which is was opined that forty centuries on, the pyramids would be centres of tourism to Egypt and so the cost-benefits balance should be tipped just a tad more in the direction of benefits. The workmen doubtless complained that they needed more pay and better benefits, but even a Pharaoh has his limits on what he can pay or command. As a later king of Egypt learned the hard way, when he called the Israelite workmen "lazy," beat their supervisors and demanded that they make the same quota of mud-bricks without being pre-supplied with straw.<br />
<br />
(It is suspected, too, that some of the tomb-building workmen were likely among the first looters of the tombs of their Kings; yes, bullying, corruption, theft and sabotage as resistance to real or perceived oppression have long been associated with grand construction projects!)<br />
<br />
To give an idea of just how major a project building a pyramid was, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0RnvIl9cQ">here</a> is an internal "ramp" theory for <a href="http://archive.archaeology.org/0705/etc/pyramid.html">Khufu's Great Pyramid</a>:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Bj0RnvIl9cQ" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
(And yes, it is not known just how it was done. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lifmEx7GtBQ">Here</a> is a far less conventional, water-shaft theory. Ponder the implications in terms of design and planning, then executing structures that are nearly exactly square and aligned with the directions of the compass, with -- for Khufu's Great Pyramid -- precise and fairly complex internal structures. Then, have them faced with smoothly finished white limestone faces. [Notice, too, the videos themselves were developed through projects also; projects are "everywhere."])<br />
<br />
Just from these classic examples and preliminary thoughts, we can already make out many of the key issues we will need to focus on, if we are to build up basic understanding and skills for project management. For instance:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
1] <i><b>Projects are common and important</b></i> in personal life, business, government, not- for- profits, charities, schools etc. (So, Project Management (PM) skills are very relevant and are widely transferable.)<br />
<br />
2] <i><b>Projects target definite and somehow unique goals</b></i>, where we face limited time, money (and other resources), may need scarce skills, and often face uncertainties and challenges. In short, we bother with projects because they allow us to achieve important goals in an effective, well-organised, reasonably efficient way in the face of an uncertain world. For instance, we can see how a a <i><b>project-at-a-glance worksheet</b></i> (used as a cover page for a project proposal or project concept note or project brief) makes the case for a project; in a nutshell:</blockquote>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3cg-BslMlv-OFNH3x7ISkx34uTXwSOWl6YM_kGRdpkjmivmOcPKbXxSEHhT7TSWrE5Xte5xAeHu-eH0C0HTgSa60x9w_xDOjiIM7CmAcOZDNPR0pP_52C_QEinooGJRxEK0VquvwTQZkM/s1600/proj_on_a_page.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3cg-BslMlv-OFNH3x7ISkx34uTXwSOWl6YM_kGRdpkjmivmOcPKbXxSEHhT7TSWrE5Xte5xAeHu-eH0C0HTgSa60x9w_xDOjiIM7CmAcOZDNPR0pP_52C_QEinooGJRxEK0VquvwTQZkM/s1600/proj_on_a_page.gif" /></a></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
3] To be able to summarise the project like that, it is wise to first lay out its process and context logic using a logical framework -- <i><b>Log Frame</b></i> -- chart (here, in a format modified to support project implementers rather than what donor agencies tend to emphasise):</blockquote>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6iO6nng2jRNb4MMnnSFLOWp3lkUD94POWHH87WwZhj4wKi5E1O9IgPYKPJKF9SJLApYBs01d4ErzpgoykxTs_fbYODL_g4cNipYq3SPIL6E0I7eMBB5kO7iS6m0cs0FnckvtFLZjooBzE/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6iO6nng2jRNb4MMnnSFLOWp3lkUD94POWHH87WwZhj4wKi5E1O9IgPYKPJKF9SJLApYBs01d4ErzpgoykxTs_fbYODL_g4cNipYq3SPIL6E0I7eMBB5kO7iS6m0cs0FnckvtFLZjooBzE/s640/logframe_implementers.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
4] <i><b>The Iron Triangle</b></i>: trading off scope, cost/resource use and time required to achieve a result of adequate quality, is obviously a focal issue that drives the management of a project.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv-8Ie9_Z0VYwEaVdcsrE7Nx-9u2hwI8jlEAqA-wQjdYFkdW7ng_Qcul7wEH4FYpkSMc-_0OalQWvhDOm1QRQmJxCS0r0kVFvZUaAlpQXt2jZCY_u8srr-bk8PlOXE12hx-xaFgIVm_1Ub/s1600/GanttChartAnatomy500px.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv-8Ie9_Z0VYwEaVdcsrE7Nx-9u2hwI8jlEAqA-wQjdYFkdW7ng_Qcul7wEH4FYpkSMc-_0OalQWvhDOm1QRQmJxCS0r0kVFvZUaAlpQXt2jZCY_u8srr-bk8PlOXE12hx-xaFgIVm_1Ub/s400/GanttChartAnatomy500px.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An example of a Gantt Chart showing activities (and summary activities),<br />
process logic order (and hierarchical work breakdown structure) , <br />
timeline, percent completion and a "now" marker </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
5] There is often a <i><b>process logic</b></i> in projects that forces a pattern of chained activities. E.g. step A (straw, mud, moulds etc) needs to be done before step B (make the bricks), and forces scheduling of resources and effort against a timeline, with specific deliverable results (e.g. quotas) due at milestone points. (This shows the usefulness of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gantt_chart">Gantt timeline charts</a> with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work_breakdown_structure">work breakdown structures</a> and other soon- to- be- familiar planning tools.)<br />
<br />
6] Good <i><b>project governance</b></i> -- making good project decisions and making them stick
-- is also a challenge given not only uncertainties and risks in general, but also temptations to bully, abuse, steal (by
force or fraud), cut corners, waste, etc. That brings up <i><b>the 3-4-5 SWOT-GOVERNANCE managerial issues</b></i>:</blockquote>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc8W9DMV4Wu-jYcdUfHfAf-sRd8CiTr7DjY9BwB88ag2bj-irS17irQew-cau484cTLBdQwnYzMonFe1QN-ATP5p6t0CMB2MxempSD1CuvXPB_ro0W13UcF9rP29nsNGFAzddoUVtX2-K5/s1600/345-swotgovce+issues.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc8W9DMV4Wu-jYcdUfHfAf-sRd8CiTr7DjY9BwB88ag2bj-irS17irQew-cau484cTLBdQwnYzMonFe1QN-ATP5p6t0CMB2MxempSD1CuvXPB_ro0W13UcF9rP29nsNGFAzddoUVtX2-K5/s640/345-swotgovce+issues.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 3-4-5 SWOT-Governance issues. Understanding trends & shocks, evaluating Strengths & Weaknesses<br />
in the face of Opportunities and Threats (SWOT), to address Vision, Mission, Values, Goals & Strategies,<br />
then Ethics/Equity ("fairness"), Efficiency, Effectiveness, Economy & the Iron Triangle</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
7] With that degree of care required just to plan and propose a project, obviously projects (other than hobby activities!) are seldom taken up just for their own sake; we seek <i><b>deliverable benefits</b></i> that contribute to <i><b>immediate and long term desirable outcomes</b></i>, that <u>justify</u> the <i><b>costs, challenges and risks</b></i> of a project.<br />
<br />
8] Thus there are many things to be negotiated among <i><b>project stakeholders </b></i>-- those who influence or benefit from or are affected by the project -- and <i><b>the "business case"/"proposal"</b></i> for undertaking a project therefore has to address and balance: good value for money, risks, costs, benefits and challenges. </blockquote>
<br />
This list helps us to see how to best organise this workshop: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>OUTLINE</b>: First, this unit gives an overview of the framework for projects, the what, why, who, where and when. Several following units will address how-to, and as workshop participants pick a sample project assignment and develop it, they will prove helpful. So will the resources page. Then, a face- to- face workshop session will allow us to discuss our sample project frameworks and work to improve them. For evaluation, the improved assignments will be the heart of assessing and certification of achieved project management skills. And there will be an outlook unit that points to where we can go from this "Bootcamp" level.</blockquote>
<br />
(PRINCE2 is recommended -- and, it will be the background concept for this workshop:)<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHsVZzCHIR2dXTjfcDZBUrZAMn7HlmW9dZanDaptWU_l5VG76vzE6i7W2zsZ35uw77BJ5l0IMSa2-aVafEGZg8Sa2jyScx2aVbbUMdpKrLu7dLaApoX7KpZ-n-82WVAUP1eaYOqQyN2zzE/s1600/PRINCE2-outline.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHsVZzCHIR2dXTjfcDZBUrZAMn7HlmW9dZanDaptWU_l5VG76vzE6i7W2zsZ35uw77BJ5l0IMSa2-aVafEGZg8Sa2jyScx2aVbbUMdpKrLu7dLaApoX7KpZ-n-82WVAUP1eaYOqQyN2zzE/s1600/PRINCE2-outline.gif" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An outline framework for the PRINCE2 -- <b><u>PR</u></b>ojects <u><b>I</b></u>n <u><b>C</b></u>ontrolled <u><b>E</b></u>nvironments -- approach to PM </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Who, Where, When? (The PEST-SWOT-Strategic Change factors)</b></div>
<br />
Already, we can see that projects -- formal and informal -- are "everywhere." They are going on all the time . . . and that they fail too often. Frequently, because they have not been properly thought-through, organised, resourced and supported.<br />
<br />
That points straight to us, as <i>"nothing works right, unless <u>we</u> work right."</i><br />
<br />
That also means we first have to:<br />
<ul>
<li> properly understand ourselves in our situation, </li>
<li>investigate what the balance of opportunities and threats we face is like, so that</li>
<li>we recognise how best to capitalise on our strengths, in order to</li>
<li>identify and make good use of opportunities,</li>
<li>effectively countering threats, and </li>
<li>compensating for (or, if reasonably possible, correcting . . . ) weaknesses. </li>
</ul>
In short, given that Aristotle rightly pointed out that <i><b>strategy</b> is the science and art of opportunity</i>, we can see that <i>projects are about strategic change</i>.<br />
<br />
Where, change is always a challenge, as it is at best discomforting and can be seen as itself a threat.<br />
<br />
Partly, by those who are very uncomfortable with or feel threatened by a proposed change.<br />
<br />
More importantly, change will be openly opposed or subtly undermined by powerful factions in a situation that draw power, profit and other benefits from continuing along the path of <i><b>business as usual (BAU)</b></i>. [Cf. and ponder analyses of the dynamics of Bureaucracy <a href="http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html">here</a> and <a href="http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-cabal-of-its-enemies_20.html">here</a>, applying to our circumstances.]<br />
<br />
So, while there is always continuity and many functions and operations have to be kept going, strategic change projects often become a challenge because they are putting forward <i><b>an alternative (ALT) to BAU</b></i>.<br />
<br />
This tends to provoke conflicts, may trigger clashes (or <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/passive-aggressive-diaries/201305/confronting-passive-aggressive-behavior">evasive, undermining behaviour</a>), and it will certainly bring up pressure to conform to comfortable or accustomed ways.<br />
<br />
The degree of likely conflict thus depends on how wedded the dominant factions are to BAU, how threatened they feel, how obvious the change need is; and, how marginalised change advocates and champions of ALT are.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, this can be happening even when "we" are <u>obviously</u> heading over a cliff:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifONzMVjs2qFqJNh-8jq3ObxoAbGlJpqEN4fjRNV_OtXoejCK7SRhl8_czbe2gROVnIpRiJaeBqGIPrpgQchD9fgZ27OF0PsgHn2MluAnYgm67aK3rkMSOTkGcQmWynFQ-TJz-pnd7aQQ/s1600/ToTheSea.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifONzMVjs2qFqJNh-8jq3ObxoAbGlJpqEN4fjRNV_OtXoejCK7SRhl8_czbe2gROVnIpRiJaeBqGIPrpgQchD9fgZ27OF0PsgHn2MluAnYgm67aK3rkMSOTkGcQmWynFQ-TJz-pnd7aQQ/s400/ToTheSea.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
(The joke in this cartoon is only funny if you are not caught up in such a <i><b>march of folly</b></i>.)<br />
<br />
More formally, we can picture the challenge in terms of reading warning signs right and in good time to turn back from ruin. Turning back also typically requires that we build <i><b>a critical mass coalition</b></i> that can initiate, sustain and carry forward the required changes:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtXR0uu3PbqS-VqGFOW9s38GIEY5X2RL2msGHteiL9oDsc7lOcnj-2xa16jiT0ZImIwUwNgkR5LEy-wE12oxzGnlxAErR__8fQIy0p92uPXFopkM6qxiqk1gQy_9CxPnUVn2K3SqyS6Gc/s1600/change_chall.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtXR0uu3PbqS-VqGFOW9s38GIEY5X2RL2msGHteiL9oDsc7lOcnj-2xa16jiT0ZImIwUwNgkR5LEy-wE12oxzGnlxAErR__8fQIy0p92uPXFopkM6qxiqk1gQy_9CxPnUVn2K3SqyS6Gc/s640/change_chall.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
Or, in sustainable development and change strategy terms, using SWOT and BAU vs. ALT:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjW4TKdCZtUNWKv2XmQSSgbfUPSnYokuBV9enZCEsFfD263TAURBf4WXr1o2KDCRFJeBM4lBlbVfK6Gb8fm4kw_VKnzsdDXqfw4M5aQ7JVYsAl2VGy884FUw6HzAlfkYMihf0RMp7w6Lo/s1600/SWOT_bau_vs_alt.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="377" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjW4TKdCZtUNWKv2XmQSSgbfUPSnYokuBV9enZCEsFfD263TAURBf4WXr1o2KDCRFJeBM4lBlbVfK6Gb8fm4kw_VKnzsdDXqfw4M5aQ7JVYsAl2VGy884FUw6HzAlfkYMihf0RMp7w6Lo/s640/SWOT_bau_vs_alt.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
This can actually be used directly in a session where a good cross-section of stakeholders have been gathered under the umbrella of a "Godfather" and "Sponsors" of change. For instance, <br />
<ul>
<li>set up a large wall-chart as above and circulate sheets of bristol board and felt-tip pens to participants working in small groups,</li>
<li> then work through the elements of the chart step by step, using the groups. </li>
<li>Start with, what do you think our three to five main opportunities and three to five main threats over the next five years are, or the like. </li>
<li>Then, relative to these challenges, what are our three to five main strengths and weaknesses? [Somehow, being specific like this helps draw out perspectives and issues that otherwise tend to get locked out or overlooked. Depending on how tense the situation is, you may wish to mix groups at random, or use natural stakeholder group based teams. If some groups are marginalised, you may need the latter, even though it tends to be more tense. A good facilitator and a good moderator are worth their weight in gold, here. Be prepared to pay the going rate.]</li>
<li>Collect the submissions and post them -- use little masking tape loops to stick up the bristol board strips and, for documentation, snap a photograph -- a key advantage is this approach is self-documenting. </li>
<li>Discuss and winnow down to a reasonable consensus, or to the main schools of thought. Put those on pre-prepared overlays for the charts -- or, you can use another old favourite: flip charts . . . or even white boards, and again snap pictures. (Today's Tablets and Smart Phones make this easy to do. The way this makes the workshop self-documenting is a great advantage. [Stick key pics in the appendix on documentation!])</li>
<li>Then, ask, what is our present path, and where is it likely to end up in the next five to ten years. </li>
<li>How well does it match the requirement of building on strength to exploit opportunities, counter threats, and compensate for weaknesses? </li>
<li>Who benefits and who gets hurt by it? Short term, long term?</li>
<li> Is this BAU approach acceptable to our various stakeholders, why or why not? </li>
<li>What are three to five main potential alternatives? </li>
<li> How well do these alternatives match the SWOT picture? </li>
<li>Which of these is best, why, and where would it take us in the next five to ten years? </li>
<li>What are the gaps between the expected BAU-track future and the suggested ALT future? </li>
<li>Should we make a change, how -- and how long will it take, with what sort of resources?</li>
</ul>
The BAU vs. ALT approach also expresses <i><b>the principle of sustainable development</b></i>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
better and more fairly meeting our needs today, without undermining the ability of our children to meet their needs tomorrow; through correctly understanding and husbanding/responding to our natural [bio-physical], socio-cultural and economic-policy environment, its resources, trends and hazards. [Adapted, Gro Harlem Bruntland et al, WCED, 1987.]</blockquote>
<br />
How all of this can work out in terms of fostering decisions for major projects at national level (the level we have to think about here in Montserrat and across the Caribbean) can be understood in light of a model for stakeholder interaction proposed by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ5ghdpT7ZfGSigziFGp1to4oW8of35Agy5q_ON1XKlEBY2QoQ2D2DrFxE4VNoPUOO5qx7n1UtHtRTuZJHZasChCqVaGOj6E_vRghG5S8x3kCOHOmevMFHyNyZZ_aZmUWN5fUSXIhGbVM/s1600/nat_resce_stress_decisions.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="598" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ5ghdpT7ZfGSigziFGp1to4oW8of35Agy5q_ON1XKlEBY2QoQ2D2DrFxE4VNoPUOO5qx7n1UtHtRTuZJHZasChCqVaGOj6E_vRghG5S8x3kCOHOmevMFHyNyZZ_aZmUWN5fUSXIhGbVM/s640/nat_resce_stress_decisions.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
(This chart is also of great help in identifying, understanding and reaching out to various stakeholders, to move us beyond locking out the marginalised. In the Caribbean, we should consider establishing national stakeholder forums that are attached to our Parliaments and which can then be formally integrated into development of major projects, programmes of action, policies, legislation, regulations etc.)<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>A Case Study on BAU vs. ALT, Acts 27</b></div>
<br />
There is a lot of practical, relevant, hard- to- dismiss wisdom in the scriptures, especially when they describe specific historical events; so let us now go there:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMjeWlJQbwJmEDgAnaHZgpq_p7X_YIBV2_uvgJllsp_8llYvuiaCLBr-vpjhHmGciP8WfbAkhZqiTPszIS7FMsbN1ogG9pH9glg-Yu9PUjmkLZRdub8hO8m8UdVODBL3gB3EFTvoULL4o/s1600/Paul-shipwreck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMjeWlJQbwJmEDgAnaHZgpq_p7X_YIBV2_uvgJllsp_8llYvuiaCLBr-vpjhHmGciP8WfbAkhZqiTPszIS7FMsbN1ogG9pH9glg-Yu9PUjmkLZRdub8hO8m8UdVODBL3gB3EFTvoULL4o/s320/Paul-shipwreck.jpg" width="241" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Shipwrecked at Malta</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Acts 27:1 <span class="text Acts-27-1">And when it was decided that we should sail for Italy [--> so Paul's appeal to Caesar's judgement seat could be heard], they delivered Paul and some other prisoners to a centurion of the Augustan Cohort named Julius.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-2" id="en-ESVUK-27843"><sup class="versenum">2 </sup>And
embarking in a ship of Adramyttium, which was about to sail to the
ports along the coast of Asia, we put to sea, accompanied by Aristarchus, a Macedonian from Thessalonica.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-3" id="en-ESVUK-27844"><sup class="versenum">3 </sup>The next day we put in at Sidon. And Julius treated Paul kindly and gave him leave to go to his friends and be cared for.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="text Acts-27-4" id="en-ESVUK-27845"><sup class="versenum">4 </sup>And putting out to sea from there we sailed under the lee of Cyprus, because the winds were against us.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-5" id="en-ESVUK-27846"><sup class="versenum">5 </sup>And when we had sailed across the open sea along the coast of Cilicia and Pamphylia, we came to Myra in Lycia.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-6" id="en-ESVUK-27847"><sup class="versenum">6 </sup>There the centurion found a ship of Alexandria sailing for Italy and put us on board.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="text Acts-27-7" id="en-ESVUK-27848"><sup class="versenum">7 </sup>We
sailed slowly for a number of days and arrived with difficulty off
Cnidus, and as the wind did not allow us to go farther, we sailed under
the lee of Crete off Salmone.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-8" id="en-ESVUK-27849"><sup class="versenum">8 </sup>Coasting along it with difficulty, we came to a place called Fair Havens, near which was the city of Lasea.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"><span class="text Acts-27-9" id="en-ESVUK-27850"><sup class="versenum">9 </sup>Since much time had passed, and the voyage was now dangerous because even the Fast<sup class="footnote" data-fn="#fen-ESVUK-27850a" data-link="[<a href="#fen-ESVUK-27850a" title="See footnote a">a</a>]">[<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Acts+27&version=ESVUK#fen-ESVUK-27850a" title="See footnote a">a</a>]</sup> was already over, Paul advised them,</span> <span class="text Acts-27-10" id="en-ESVUK-27851"><sup class="versenum">10 </sup>saying, “Sirs, I perceive that the voyage will be with injury and much loss, not only of the cargo and the ship, but also of our lives.”</span> <span class="text Acts-27-11" id="en-ESVUK-27852"><sup class="versenum">11 </sup>But the centurion paid more attention to the pilot and to the owner of the ship than to what Paul said.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-12" id="en-ESVUK-27853"><sup class="versenum">12 </sup>And
because the harbour was not suitable to spend the winter in, the
majority decided to put out to sea from there, on the chance that
somehow they could reach Phoenix, a harbour of Crete [--> about 40 miles further down the coast], facing both
southwest and northwest, and spend the winter there.</span></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"><span class="text Acts-27-13"><sup class="versenum">13 </sup>Now
when the south wind blew gently, supposing that they had obtained their
purpose, they weighed anchor and sailed along Crete, close to the
shore.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-14" id="en-ESVUK-27855"><sup class="versenum">14 </sup>But soon a tempestuous wind, called the northeaster, struck down from the land [--> it seems, an early winter storm].</span> <span class="text Acts-27-15" id="en-ESVUK-27856"><sup class="versenum">15 </sup>And when the ship was caught and could not face the wind, we gave way to it and were driven along.</span></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="text Acts-27-16" id="en-ESVUK-27857"><sup class="versenum">16 </sup>Running under the lee of a small island called Cauda,<sup class="footnote" data-fn="#fen-ESVUK-27857b" data-link="[<a href="#fen-ESVUK-27857b" title="See footnote b">b</a>]">[<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Acts+27&version=ESVUK#fen-ESVUK-27857b" title="See footnote b">b</a>]</sup> we managed with difficulty to secure the ship's boat.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-17" id="en-ESVUK-27858"><sup class="versenum">17 </sup>After hoisting it up, they used supports to undergird the ship. Then, fearing that they would run aground on the Syrtis [--> dangerous sand bars on the Libyan coast off to the SW], they lowered the gear,<sup class="footnote" data-fn="#fen-ESVUK-27858c" data-link="[<a href="#fen-ESVUK-27858c" title="See footnote c">c</a>]">[<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Acts+27&version=ESVUK#fen-ESVUK-27858c" title="See footnote c">c</a>]</sup> and thus they were driven along.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-18" id="en-ESVUK-27859"><sup class="versenum">18 </sup>Since we were violently storm-tossed, they began the next day to jettison the cargo.</span> <span class="text Acts-27-19" id="en-ESVUK-27860"><sup class="versenum">19 </sup>And on the third day they threw the ship's tackle overboard with their own hands.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="text Acts-27-20" id="en-ESVUK-27861"><sup class="versenum">20 </sup>When
neither sun nor stars appeared for many days, and no small tempest lay
on us, all hope of our being saved was at last abandoned . . . [ESV, UK]</span></blockquote>
<br />
Of course (as we can see by <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Acts+27&version=ESVUK">reading on</a>), by the grace of God, they shipwrecked on the coast of Malta.<br />
<br />
However, vv 9 - 15 tell us an all- too- familiar story of governance and decision-making gone bad; leading to a march of folly that ended in shipwreck. For, Mr Moneybags and his bought- and- paid- for sailing master were obviously concerned for the ship, cargo and investment more than for lives at risk in a dangerous season and environment. Fair Havens was too open a bay for their liking, and they wanted to slip 40 miles down-coast to a superior harbour. But sailing was dangerous at that time, it was very late in the year. They likely argued that it was just a quick afternoon's sail once there was a good little bit of wind. Paul, a prisoner in chains (and by then already a veteran of three shipwrecks) just did not look credible enough by contrast. Both the Centurion in charge and the majority -- see, nice and democratic! -- went with the "experts."<br />
<br />
Right over the cliff.<br />
<br />
So, we need to ponder how to create a critical mass for sound change in good time.<br />
<br />
That puts the PEST + BP factors on the table:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: red;"><b>P</b></span> - political (including legal and regulatory) issues and trends<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>E</b></span> - economic ones<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">S</span></b> - socio-cultural factors<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>T</b></span> - technology and science issues<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>BP</b></span> - bio-physical/natural environment </blockquote>
This points to the opportunities and threats we face. We then match these with our strengths and weaknesses profile to see where BAU is most likely headed, or could possibly be headed. This may motivate a shift to a sounder, more sustainable ALT-ernative. But to get to the critical mass to change, you may well have to identify people with a stake in the outcomes who are likely to have been pushed to the margins and effectively silenced like the lemming being told <i>"Shut up, you moron!"</i><br />
<br />
That brings up the cluster of key factors that creates <b>critical mass for change</b>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Idea <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Originators</b></span><br />
Idea <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Champions</span></b><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Sponsors</b></span> at Middle/Senior Management level<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Incubators</b></span> that allow initiatives to be developed and practically demonstrated<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Godfathers</b></span> at Top Management level</blockquote>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS_ZSSZep-7SIP6kcdavbgtzpgViqDbs3wLz6U-2tKHk8-BASOJ7Iiovm6RDZ7iFXCiIOTqHbef98aLWO72Uqdk-SW-BP5Ckm4aYVqnkzx6_EaKUrs9ysmwvX8SXx317Dq6szDBTWNc_yG/s1600/devilsadvocate.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS_ZSSZep-7SIP6kcdavbgtzpgViqDbs3wLz6U-2tKHk8-BASOJ7Iiovm6RDZ7iFXCiIOTqHbef98aLWO72Uqdk-SW-BP5Ckm4aYVqnkzx6_EaKUrs9ysmwvX8SXx317Dq6szDBTWNc_yG/s320/devilsadvocate.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Responsible critic or destructive hit-man?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Given that there are <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Idea- and- Implementer hit-men</b></span> (as opposed to <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>responsible, reasonable critics</b></span>) out there gunning for those who dare to challenge business as usual, all five factors are important to build a sound critical mass for change. The fewer of these factors that are in place, the less likely will it be that even a first class idea not sponsored by the dominant faction makes it through to the point of success.<br />
<br />
Where, in an organisation with an <b>institutional culture</b> dominated by irresponsible behaviour, a climate of intimidation/ bullying and <b>ruthless office politics</b>, business as usual is very likely indeed to be on an ill-advised <b>march of folly</b>.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK9Z3ObMUjnXNSL5qRWkjT_ED1-k_c5n4G5QfB7lStzDZ_ZmxiV8c5EhWLxLFy6l07fxf_K2JC8YSV0p2pMnP_B7UWN-U6t_wFwmN20VjNSHRC-rpV5cnS2N_NylO4kWoRHISzwiqJrgtr/s1600/lemmings_chute.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK9Z3ObMUjnXNSL5qRWkjT_ED1-k_c5n4G5QfB7lStzDZ_ZmxiV8c5EhWLxLFy6l07fxf_K2JC8YSV0p2pMnP_B7UWN-U6t_wFwmN20VjNSHRC-rpV5cnS2N_NylO4kWoRHISzwiqJrgtr/s1600/lemmings_chute.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Watch out for that golden parachute! <br />
(Or, the one who <i>"always lands on his feet <br />like a cat"</i> -- leaving others "holding the bag")</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Ironically, such an organisation is exactly the sort that most urgently needs healthy innovation. So, a culture of marches of folly, in the end indicts the top leadership of an organisation as utterly failing in their stewardship. But, in many cases, utterly cynical and manipulative, <b>highly machiavellian looter leadership</b> is busily planning its <b>"golden parachute</b>" escape strategy. (Indeed, in the Acts 27 case, the sailors, on a ruse of putting out anchors from the bows, were trying to abandon the passengers to their fate; this was spotted and stopped through intervention of the apostle Paul. [By this time, Centurion Julius had learned -- at sobering cost -- whose counsel was likely to be sound and trustworthy.])<br />
<br />
By contrast, healthy organisations, businesses and communities will see to it that the critical mass is in place and that a steady stream of credibly sound change initiatives is flowing. (Which means there must be an appetite for a certain degree of <b>manageable risk</b>, shown in willingness to have a due proportion of failed change initiatives.) <br />
<br />
And,<i> they will be particularly concerned to identify, develop, and incubate promising, well- thought- out ideas and initiatives to the point where practical demonstration at some reasonable scale removes reasonable doubt on <b>feasibility and desirability</b>.</i> For, that is how the future is built in a rapidly changing world -- good ideas are developed and demonstrated then scaled up and pushed hard.<br />
<br />
But, sadly, unhealthy organisations are very common.<br />
<br />
They can be readily recognised by how quickly they habitually push sound but politically incorrect ideas and their would-be implementers to the fringes; promoting polarisation, hostility, stereotyping, scape-goating and targetting. It is then a simple step to send out the career-busting hit-men to keep such undesirables out or to drive them out.<br />
<br />
This pattern of unhealthy organisations is so important that we should expand a bit: <br />
<ul>
<li> A key indicator of this is <b>organisational favouritism</b>, where, </li>
<li>even when -- nominally -- centres and structures of innovation and support for innovation are present, they have in fact been co-opted by domineering factions.</li>
<li>This leads to a culture of favouritism, back-stabbing and slanderous gossip, lack of trust-worthiness, questionable deals made behind closed doors, demand for conformity to party-line agendas, picking and targetting scapegoats and manipulation; such that </li>
<li>evaluation of innovations and would be innovators is drastically undermined and such evaluation as happens is "political" rather than responsible, objective and fair. This creates </li>
<li>a self-perpetuating, cynical <b>institutional culture of abuse</b>, marked by intimidation, <b>silencing of responsible concerns</b>, frustration, domineering, bullying and folly [cf. the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster <a href="http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/space-disasters/challenger-disaster/">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_Colloquium1012.html">here</a>, <a href="http://thinkreliability.com/case_studies/root-cause-analysis-challenger-explosion/">here</a>]; </li>
<li>even, in cases where the domineering bullies imagine themselves to be representing "diversity" and "progress" or "justice" as champions of "the marginalised" or "the oppressed." </li>
</ul>
<br />
Unfortunately, this latter pattern is exceedingly common all over the Caribbean -- and far beyond. <br />
<br />
So, we must now turn to the challenge:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Promoting a healthy portfolio of sound strategic change projects</b></div>
<br />
How can we build a sound strategic change portfolio; one full of good, healthily progressing projects that help us fulfill a long term vision -- for an organisation, a business, a government, a community?<br />
<br />
This is obviously not an easy task.<br />
<br />
The best way probably begins by recognising that projects (like many other things) are based on the pattern:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #990000;"><b> INPUTS --> TRANSFORMATIONAL ACTIVITIES --> OUTPUTS +</b></span><span style="color: #990000;"><b> OUTCOMES:</b></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ8I1hX9C4Hjr2xzoW81wEBbZhwwsxctonNjodfXuVIWW3-mGf7jlvi9-xlQDjGxNnmFJd6aJ1Sv1LYFkiTMyexQvtnRBfvU5eDi8qw9WpEUa3NEaH0_oDZ5mdChUQPJBQ4ZDz_lkqGva-/s1600/Smyrk_ITO-model.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ8I1hX9C4Hjr2xzoW81wEBbZhwwsxctonNjodfXuVIWW3-mGf7jlvi9-xlQDjGxNnmFJd6aJ1Sv1LYFkiTMyexQvtnRBfvU5eDi8qw9WpEUa3NEaH0_oDZ5mdChUQPJBQ4ZDz_lkqGva-/s1600/Smyrk_ITO-model.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
. . . and projects thus have a "natural" life cycle that we must learn how to manage, e.g.:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4GkquL-wIT4xSANKJvs8JfjEltpMePIO0KtwMstgF3wi1l2MpJAJMpalVQP1UeLdU6Tbs0tc1C_8nLuFGUr7GSpvhL3GWdYb9kl3seV6HSsK51Ai5nmcZ0FHKmfsBLdnQwZF4aqpX3B5P/s1600/PM_life_cycle.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4GkquL-wIT4xSANKJvs8JfjEltpMePIO0KtwMstgF3wi1l2MpJAJMpalVQP1UeLdU6Tbs0tc1C_8nLuFGUr7GSpvhL3GWdYb9kl3seV6HSsK51Ai5nmcZ0FHKmfsBLdnQwZF4aqpX3B5P/s640/PM_life_cycle.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Where, too, projects are inherently diverse -- they target unique outcomes so every project is different and requires specific understanding and management of its own particular circumstances. That said, we need to appreciate that there are several schools of thought and linked broad types of project, requiring some flexibility in project management approaches. For instance, consider the commonalities and differences between:<br />
<ul>
<li>Construction and Civil Engineering projects</li>
<li>Organisation or community development "soft" projects</li>
<li>Public or health education and mobilisation initiatives</li>
<li>IT and Software development projects </li>
<li>research and development projects for new technologies</li>
<li>Development Agency initiatives</li>
<li>Procurement or Defence Acquisition projects (especially when dealing with risky, unknown or unfamiliar technologies)</li>
<li>And, more</li>
</ul>
Clearly, we need flexibility with unifying principles and an over-arching strategic vision/focus and action-agenda. Multiplied, by a cluster of capability to actually move things forward and break through obstacles and roadblocks. Perhaps, even, ability to deal with hitman ambushes.<br />
<br />
All of this brings us to the need for: <i><b> </b></i><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Programme-based Project Cycle Management (PbPCM)</b></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhURqhNarICkZ8ladTU84SQJQsF4N2ynZd5xIgLnLiNSSIApIyfCoUmbaIONLFuK993x4BRGk4s9LSe0iWY48LU0Uee2Bg2iKTqK1Tcygb_t6d5sQWLnE6rwOVNL2-7TrWwmyMy_fhPsFxE/s1600/Robotic-hand.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhURqhNarICkZ8ladTU84SQJQsF4N2ynZd5xIgLnLiNSSIApIyfCoUmbaIONLFuK993x4BRGk4s9LSe0iWY48LU0Uee2Bg2iKTqK1Tcygb_t6d5sQWLnE6rwOVNL2-7TrWwmyMy_fhPsFxE/s320/Robotic-hand.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
That is, projects work best when they are grouped like fingers in a hand, so they can work together towards a common goal, even as we use our hands to type, write, knit, play an instrument such as a piano, or whatever.<br />
<br />
The unifying element for a group of projects towards a common vision is <i><b>the programme</b>, a unit of organisation that binds together projects and associated activities and operations towards a common mission and goal</i>. For instance, in the 1960's, the Apollo Program -- that is how Americans spell it -- developed the rockets and the mission that put men on the Moon on Sunday July 20, 1969 [a moment I listened to on shortwave radio along with my family; a moment that is forever burned deep into my memory]. Spin-off results of that programme are all around us, for it created a world of technology that led to the modern microprocessor and micro computer (thus eventually today's ICT age), new materials, a whole new way to organise major initiatives . . . the programme of action [which is what we are now studying!], etc., etc., even something as mundane as Tang, the well-known powdered breakfast drink.<br />
<br />
Programmes host projects, often using a "project team" or "matrix" type organisational structure:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVpllmabhUgOg_TQeXQZ7l4-KFoRc4Y2iCSMd9YJxyq69ev3qacGGZnKWOC-dt5jpPD6h6ROMygJEfiCKBW4E79YozdOibUoHlySeUEs3VBRn4P6Aqt13Zf_ll0tWM16YLBJR6Bkm078/s1600/pgm_of_action_matrix_team_org.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="625" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVpllmabhUgOg_TQeXQZ7l4-KFoRc4Y2iCSMd9YJxyq69ev3qacGGZnKWOC-dt5jpPD6h6ROMygJEfiCKBW4E79YozdOibUoHlySeUEs3VBRn4P6Aqt13Zf_ll0tWM16YLBJR6Bkm078/s640/pgm_of_action_matrix_team_org.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Now, here is a subtle trick: <i>it is a common error to imagine that programmes are "more difficult/ more advanced" than projects, so it is best to dispense with the programmes and just focus on trying to get "simple" projects right.</i><br />
<br />
The problem is, projects still -- naturally -- have life cycles and need to be carefully managed, and it is this life cycle process that drives their complexity and tendency to get into hot water. That is, projects (other than extremely simple and routine ones) <u>naturally</u> embed key elements of a programme. So it often makes sense to cluster projects together and manage them as a programme.<br />
<br />
So, too, if we try to dispense with the programme idea and manage reasonably complex and non-routine projects as they come based on whatever seems good at the moment, we are very likely to make big mistakes. Mistakes, that we will only learn of when they are blowing up in our faces. At which point the projects will become very costly to either fix or to abandon.<br />
<br />
So,<i><b> the first strategic change project</b></i> we need in our strategic change portfolios is <i>"the project to create the programme that manages our portfolio of strategic change projects."</i><br />
<br />
We have to build the capacity to do it right, to do it right reliably.<br />
<br />
On this matter, flying by the seat of our pants is a recipe for crashing and burning.<br />
<br />
This, then, brings <i><b>project cycle management (PCM</b></i>) to the fore. So, let us refer to the framework adopted by the European Union:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIcBYZQYuGwcN-Xhaxg5rTNkhHILxlIXqyXKDys55GsEz16QEjgIpFx3P7P8IA3VeWIkc8YrhIcqqv1JEug6fPXZ0NSSM2c_zMNnapdFI3csjAsLqgpB8_-GxRCjTjRXXh5FxUTazCO1NL/s1600/EU_PCM_Frwk.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIcBYZQYuGwcN-Xhaxg5rTNkhHILxlIXqyXKDys55GsEz16QEjgIpFx3P7P8IA3VeWIkc8YrhIcqqv1JEug6fPXZ0NSSM2c_zMNnapdFI3csjAsLqgpB8_-GxRCjTjRXXh5FxUTazCO1NL/s640/EU_PCM_Frwk.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
In short, we can best manage a portfolio of strategic change initiatives by creating a programme unit, and using a proper programme-based project cycle management framework. The first project for such a programme is to create the Programme Unit, by whatever name, and to properly charter it so that it is properly governed and supported.<br />
<br />
Now, let's flesh out this initial, skeletal overview a bit by moving on to the meat of the matter: HOW . . . <br />
<br />
<b>FOR DISCUSSION:</b><br />
<br />
XXXXX<br />
<br />GEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-89450675899542590992016-12-06T09:22:00.001-08:002017-01-01T03:14:44.581-08:00PM101 U2: Project Initiation and Start-upxxx<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
XXX<br />
<br />
<b>INTRODUCTION:</b> To understand and appreciate what is required for initiating and starting up a project nowadays, we have to face a painful, hard- to- swallow fact:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The days of the "simple" "one-off" project are now effectively over.</i></blockquote>
There simply have been too many failed grand Development Projects and over-promised Business, Information Technology or community projects that sounded good, attracted support (or even enthusiasm) and funding, but then failed. And, from biblical days, the need to count up the cost to see if one can finish a building before starting its construction has been proverbial:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Luke 14:<span class="text Luke-14-28" id="en-ESVUK-25573"><span class="woj"><sup class="versenum">28 </sup>[Jesus said:] " . . . For which of you, desiring to build a tower, does not first sit down and count the cost, whether he has enough to complete it?</span></span> <span class="text Luke-14-29" id="en-ESVUK-25574"><span class="woj"><sup class="versenum">29 </sup>Otherwise, when he has laid a foundation and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him,</span></span> <span class="text Luke-14-30" id="en-ESVUK-25575"><span class="woj"><sup class="versenum">30 </sup>saying, ‘This man began to build and was not able to finish.’ " [ESV]</span></span> </blockquote>
When big projects fail, too often the most guilty have their golden parachutes to get away with fatter bank accounts, and they also may have scapegoats set up to take the blame. Reputations are tainted, people are demoted or fired, some may even go to gaol. The famed investor Warren Buffet aptly said that <i>if you are in a Poker game and cannot figure out who is the sheep there to be shorn, look in the mirror</i>.<br />
<br />
Worse, in cases where lives are lost -- especially when something like the O-ring failure that caused disintegration of the billion-dollar Space Shuttle Challenger (cf. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnmSdVbgQ4M">video</a>) leads to patently avoidable loss of lives -- those responsible have to live with blood guilt for the rest of their lives. (Where, in almost all such cases, there were warning signs there in the project initiation and start-up processes, which were overlooked or dismissed without good cause. So, the stringency of modern project management standards and systems is quite understandable.)<br />
<br />
For the sake of sensitising our consciences, let us pause and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O_DMyHdq_M">watch</a>:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-O_DMyHdq_M" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
Sobering.<br />
<br />
This sets the context for this second unit.<br />
<br />
For, given that stringency, the underlying issue is that projects inherently embed elements of programmes in them, as we can see from the outline PRINCE2 process framework that it is well worth the pause to look at, a second time:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBq2pRW-tIa3XaznTiBokcGw4l1yFVsfF0lVbwmUUJWZO6JQmK7cpxi0-9B9AXHDhm-eabubPOUSFNRNXc-io-gLHkxXReFErca_Cqk1PSlqxW-lVnwBCNIqqF6wsd69K8CwDh2n16aek/s1600/PRINCE2-outline.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBq2pRW-tIa3XaznTiBokcGw4l1yFVsfF0lVbwmUUJWZO6JQmK7cpxi0-9B9AXHDhm-eabubPOUSFNRNXc-io-gLHkxXReFErca_Cqk1PSlqxW-lVnwBCNIqqF6wsd69K8CwDh2n16aek/s1600/PRINCE2-outline.gif" /></a></div>
Consequently, <i>it is best to cluster "simple" small scale projects under the umbrella of a programme as a sort of mini-grants and technical support/ capacity-building initiative</i>.<br />
<br />
That way,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
a: the stringent issues are taken care of by qualified and certified project management professionals in <i><b>the project to set up the programme</b></i>; and, in the ongoing programme's oversight. </blockquote>
<br />
Similarly,<i> </i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
b: development agencies are moving away from the one-off big ticket project to a collaborative programme-based partnership approach that typically targets a sector and embraces several individual projects. </blockquote>
Likewise,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
c: in corporate contexts, projects are increasingly undertaken as parts of a corporate, "building the future" change management programmes. </blockquote>
So,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
d: the "simple," "small- scale" project is then embraced as part of a wider framework. In short, we are looking at programme-based project management in light of the project life cycle.</blockquote>
Where, if you doubt the importance, effectiveness and validity of small projects, kindly pause and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5qFLd1u0XQ">watch</a>:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r5qFLd1u0XQ" width="640"></iframe>
<br />
In this unit, then,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
e: our <i><b>focus</b></i> is on </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(1) equipping a participant in this workshop with perspectives and tools to initiate and start up a fairly simple project, and </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(2) to equip such a person to appreciate and work with the qualified and certified professionals leading a more complex project. </blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br />
In both cases, it is assumed that there is an overarching programme in which the projects fit, like fingers of a hand:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVpllmabhUgOg_TQeXQZ7l4-KFoRc4Y2iCSMd9YJxyq69ev3qacGGZnKWOC-dt5jpPD6h6ROMygJEfiCKBW4E79YozdOibUoHlySeUEs3VBRn4P6Aqt13Zf_ll0tWM16YLBJR6Bkm078/s1600/pgm_of_action_matrix_team_org.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="625" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVpllmabhUgOg_TQeXQZ7l4-KFoRc4Y2iCSMd9YJxyq69ev3qacGGZnKWOC-dt5jpPD6h6ROMygJEfiCKBW4E79YozdOibUoHlySeUEs3VBRn4P6Aqt13Zf_ll0tWM16YLBJR6Bkm078/s640/pgm_of_action_matrix_team_org.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The further context is that we must also address how to initiate and start up projects in the PRINCE2 framework:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Initiating and Starting up Projects in the ("tailored") PRINCE2 context</b></div>
<br />
First, please forgive and be patient with necessary complexity, including some diagrams that will take effort to figure out -- and if you think diagrams are complicated, try to put the same in words without using illustrations! (In the end, working through the words and pictures together will help us understand more deeply and thus work in a more insightful, capable way. So, pardon our progress.)<br />
<br />
Now, a good start-point for looking at project initiation and start-up is the American Project Management Institute's principles + phases/challenges + solutions + issues framework:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL9jnRWyjqLkcb1Jt7la518s1TpdRAAhB2ljnGDHFX6uLUm3BMTkkV9KfKGIOfb5nax7WhFB3yJE2WoJEALn3jf-dk7Cw6ktj1TDPgBRdXv7t3ygWaEGsQ3RlPoWfoD7Ein1-Qp05_nRRC/s1600/pmbok_proj_mgt_lcyc-processes_750px.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL9jnRWyjqLkcb1Jt7la518s1TpdRAAhB2ljnGDHFX6uLUm3BMTkkV9KfKGIOfb5nax7WhFB3yJE2WoJEALn3jf-dk7Cw6ktj1TDPgBRdXv7t3ygWaEGsQ3RlPoWfoD7Ein1-Qp05_nRRC/s1600/pmbok_proj_mgt_lcyc-processes_750px.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
The key deliverables at this stage -- Project Proposal/Business Case and onward to start-up approval -- show that projects have to be identified, developed in terms of their logic to show feasibility, desirability and priority, then agreed before they can be properly started up. The above generic themes then lead to a wider pattern of governance, organisation and execution that can be seen in light of the PRINCE2 framework as we already saw.<br />
<br />
Let us mark up the drawings:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFpohlxASKz6ZS-_IwOmD3nP9KXULMSPWcVHiny2cbvitSxHk7DErfOjBSiaO1sexey-6-MOe2BsGk9KUvhFKKG_RJ-xwem0BtnI78vYDWSZxLdB-vYE-iMVe5CeHEQIvTZaweI4D70sxr/s1600/proj_process_govce%2526mgt.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFpohlxASKz6ZS-_IwOmD3nP9KXULMSPWcVHiny2cbvitSxHk7DErfOjBSiaO1sexey-6-MOe2BsGk9KUvhFKKG_RJ-xwem0BtnI78vYDWSZxLdB-vYE-iMVe5CeHEQIvTZaweI4D70sxr/s1600/proj_process_govce%2526mgt.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
From the marked up drawings, we can now see how PRINCE2 addresses the organisation of projects: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>A:</b> Corporate and/or Programme Management sees to <i>making the major decisions and "making them stick,"</i> i.e. overall governance.<br />
<br />
<b>B:</b> Those who manage the project level are delegates of the Board/Programme, <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>B1:</b> The Project "Board" represents the Executive, the "User"and a delegate of the suppliers of inputs. The logic here is that Users generate outcomes as they use the delivered results, so must have a voice on their being fit for purpose. Likewise, suppliers provide inputs -- including especially the skilled effort that produces the deliverable results, so they too should be heard. The Executive is the direct delegate of the Corporate/Programme directors who have commissioned the project -- often, through a statement of approval of the Business Case and instruction to start the project -- and holds authority to direct it. (NB: In Montserrat's context, it would likely reduce confusion if we referred to "the Project Steering Group" or "Committee.")</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>B2:</b> The Project Manager is a delegate of the Project Board (on which s/he <u>may</u> sit and/ or reports to, ex officio), and is the key day to day manager of the project.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>B3:</b> Project assurance must have some credible independence of the executive and evaluates the stewardship of those involved, as to quality of output, management and accountability over inputs, records, process etc. In effect evaluation and/or audit towards in the first instance, lessons learned. (Sterner measures are called upon, if necessary.)</blockquote>
<b>C, D & E:</b> The designated Project Manager and his Work Team Leaders undertake day to day management and supervision of the planning and execution of the project, down to individual work packages generated using a hierarchical work breakdown analysis.</blockquote>
Also, as the 2009 official manual notes, PRINCE2 is intended to be quite generic, <i>"a flexible framework that can readily be tailored to any type or size of project."</i> Accordingly, in Ch 19, it notes:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Tailoring does not consist of omitting elements of PRINCE2. The method is not a series of isolated silos whereby any element can be omitted with no effect on the others . . . . [Instead,] tailoring is about adapting the method to external factors (such as any corporate standards that need to be applied) and the project factors to consider (such as the scale of the project). The goal is to apply a level of project management that does not overburden the project but provides an appropriate level of control given the external and project factors. </blockquote>
In short, there is a system involved, and it should only be adapted based on sound understanding. Any tailoring, therefore, must take care that does not damage the integrity of the process logic and especially, effective governance, prudent risk management, ability to deliver good value for money and responsible assurance of high quality. So, no, we cannot just pick and choose bits and pieces we like and toss away or ignore the rest. (That would be rather like the NASA Managers tolerating a Criticality 1 fault for years; as -- so far, the second O-Ring had always saved them. Then, one launch day, it was a fateful cold morning in January 1986 and the second ring failed, tragically.)<br />
<br />
Clearly, the easiest adaptation is teminology, e.g. as the Government of Montserrat has had a "Project Board" that does not match the PRINCE2 term, a different term is advisable. We suggest, perhaps: <i>project steering group or committee</i>.<br />
<br />
More complex adaptations relate to things like the need to work with Development Partners/ funding agencies that have their own systems and organisation culture/ traditions. For example, a DFID Business Case is owned by DFID and will typically only be modified under unusual circumstances. In that context, it may be better to submit a <i><b>project proposal</b></i> that -- after a <b><i>feasibility study</i></b> -- is used in creating such a business case with our input. Under that case, perhaps <i><b>implementing plans</b></i> can then be commissioned with some degree of delegated flexibility, built-in contingency responses and accountability at review points. Such can be written into <i><b>implementation-oriented Log Frames</b></i>, for instance:<br />
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmfreQNgiyRM36PsXfGbBE3OSlzfsx8BxFN-TnAXrRaGGst9SKUpaJEK6hsXDHEg56I85utwUF3O40yuXyjtt7gcjIIIavHwyOCLL_Oo623rx1LllQVYKGb5b_cppxkEU6vwe8l2jorxB/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmfreQNgiyRM36PsXfGbBE3OSlzfsx8BxFN-TnAXrRaGGst9SKUpaJEK6hsXDHEg56I85utwUF3O40yuXyjtt7gcjIIIavHwyOCLL_Oo623rx1LllQVYKGb5b_cppxkEU6vwe8l2jorxB/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Obviously, that will have to be hammered out in a <i><b>development partnership memorandum of understanding</b></i>. Likely, as a <i><b>technical appendix</b></i>. <br />
<br />
Happily, the simple projects envisioned in this workshop may only require a simpler<i><b> project concept note</b></i> with a project- at- a- glance cover sheet and an implementation-oriented log frame, outline budget and project timeline chart (i.e. a simple Gantt chart).<br />
<br />
However, before going into that, it is necessary to pause and look a bit at:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> PRINCE2-oriented Corporate/Programme governance organisation</b></div>
<br />
So far, Corporate/Programme Management has been a <b>black box</b>, now it is time to lift the lid and look inside to see what PRINCE2 suggests regarding organisation at that level. For example:<br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />
Instantly, we see that PRINCE2 is based on a three-tier concept: (1) portfolios of (2) programmes and (3) projects.<br />
<br />
Where, an underlying concept is that projects are a means to the end, future-building strategic change. So, in effect, programmes and projects are further clustered in a <i><b>strategic change investment portfolio</b></i>. Thus, naturally, we see support facilities -- and here, we continue the above:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A: The Main Board and its Delegate, the Director for the strategic change investment portfolio.<br />
<br />
F: The Corporate Portfolio Office<br />
<br />
G: Hub Portfolio/ Programme Offices and<br />
<br />
H: local Programme Offices -- often, Programme Management Offices.<br />
<br />
I: Project Offices</blockquote>
Obviously, the elaborate framework is put up to cover the needs of globe-spanning complex organisations. PRINCE2 is generic and intended to be tailored and scoped to fit the scale of a given organisation.<br />
<br />
For instanced, if we are not spanning continents, we do not need to think in terms of hub offices. If things are small enough, we do not need multiple programme offices either, a single Progreamme Management Office will do, understanding that it also carries out strategic change investment portfolio management functions.Both the strategic decision-maker support functions and the delivery capacity support functions. To some extent other offices or external suppliers may carry out detailed work e.g. on contracts -- that's a <i><b>make vs. buy decision</b></i> -- but there must be a definite desk accountable and capable to co-ordinate the relevant functions.<br />
<br />
The Centre of Excellence cluster is particularly interesting, as this is where capacity is built and sustained across time.<br />
<br />
It bears repeating, <i>these strategic change investment portfolio management functions <u>must</u> be carried out in a definite, organised, accountable way, without overloading any one officer</i>.<br />
<br />
And yes, this is an <u>investment</u>, even in a not for profit or government organisation.<br />
<br />
Human resources are the most important form of "soft capital" there is, and supporting such with appropriate equipment, organisation and facilities is also an investment. The costs of strategic change projects and their host programmes is also another investment, one with significant risk, which must be carefully managed so that they in aggregate provide good value for money. (And no, it is unrealistic to expect to be able to plan out every detail in advance and guarantee that all projects will be successful, a wiser strategy is to undertake a programme, and to carry forward the risky projects in distinct stages, where the early stages reduce the risk of the later ones. It may even be advisable to set up a distinct exploratory sub-programme for high risk, high potential payoff risky initiatives. Here in Montserrat, the Geothermal exploration programme is an example, one that currently seems to be moving from moderate success to potentially much better payoff.)<br />
<br />
But also, we can see a possible point of confusion:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Balancing Business As Usual with the need for Strategic Change</b></div>
<br />
"Business as usual," is a traditional sign put up by a shop hit by a fire or other emergency, that is continuing with its day to day breadwinner operations even while it copes with damage, recovery, rebuilding etc. And that is valid. So, we can readily see the way PRINCE2 arrived at the concept of balancing business as usual with a strategic change effort.<br />
<br />
However, in sustainable development circles, it was long since recognised that there is a business as usual attitude that too often lurks behind the putting up of <i><b>a brave, resilient front</b></i> that keeps on on a "steady as she goes" path in the face of a crisis.<br />
<br />
In this context, it becomes pivotal to see that business as usual is there for a reason.<br />
<br />
Namely, it is the compromise hammered out across time by the dominant factions in an organisation or community. It is thus going to be in the comfort zone of those who rose to dominance based on past track record, wealth, power, sponsorship by the powerful and connexions. Therefore, it can lead to resistance to change, and even to rejection of warning signs that radical strategic change is needed, that is, to <i><b>a march of ruinous folly</b></i>:<br />
<br />
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<br />
This then points to the collective, sobering responsibilities of governance-level leaders of an organisation (or even a community). The 3-4-5 SWOT governance framework can help focus on those responsibilities:<br />
<br />
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<br />
Clearly, there is always a duty to soberly monitor and understand the times, trends, potential shocks, risks, hazards and uncertainties, leading to an accurate picture of opportunities and threats.<br />
<br />
That duty includes being willing to hear and honestly assess unwelcome news and views from sources that may not be very welcome in the halls of power. Where, again (given that part of our national vision and heritage is that we are a God-fearing community), it is very appropriate to point to a confrontation between Jesus and the leading figures of his day on the subject of discernment:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Matt 16:1<span class="text Matt-16-1">Now the Pharisees and Sadducees came up,
and testing Jesus [to get something to use against Him], they asked Him
to show them a sign from heaven [which would support His divine
authority].</span> <span class="text Matt-16-2" id="en-AMP-23675"><sup class="versenum"> </sup></span><br />
<br />
<span class="text Matt-16-2" id="en-AMP-23675"><sup class="versenum">2 </sup>But He replied to them, <span class="woj">“<sup class="footnote" data-fn="#fen-AMP-23675a" data-link="[<a href="#fen-AMP-23675a" title="See footnote a">a</a>]">[<a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=1+Chron+7%2C+1+Chron+12%2C+Matt+16&version=AMP#fen-AMP-23675a" title="See footnote a">a</a>]</sup>When it is evening, you say, ‘<i>It will be</i> fair weather, for the sky is red.’</span></span> <span class="text Matt-16-3" id="en-AMP-23676"><span class="woj"><sup class="versenum">3 </sup>And in the morning, ‘<i>It will be</i>
stormy today, for the sky is red and has a threatening look.’<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"> You know
how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but cannot interpret the
signs of the times?</span></span></span> <span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj"><sup class="versenum">4 </sup>An evil and</span> [morally] <span class="woj">unfaithful generation craves a</span> [miraculous] <span class="woj">sign; but no sign will be given to it, except the sign of</span> [the prophet] <span class="woj">Jonah.” . . . . [AMP]</span></span></blockquote>
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj">Instead, we should be like the 200 delegates of Issachar in David's day (speaking for a tribe that per 1 Chron 7:5 disposed of 87,000 fighting men) who came to Hebron when David was to be called as king over all of Israel, c. 1000 BC:</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj">2 Chron 7:</span></span><span class="text 1Chr-12-32" id="en-AMP-10753"><sup class="versenum">32 </sup>Of
the tribe of Issachar,<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"> men who understood the times, with knowledge of
what Israel should do</span>, two hundred chiefs; and all their relatives were
at their command [AMP]</span></blockquote>
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj">Where were the rest of the 87,000, why?</span></span><br />
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj"><br /></span></span>
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj">They were back in Jezreel, guarding the back door and doing the day-to-day business of farming the bread basket while the critical strategic change was being made down to the South in Hebron:</span></span><br />
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj"><br /></span></span>
<br />
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<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj"><br /></span></span>
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj">The Jezreel Valley -- aka, Armageddon -- was Israel's bread basket, and an invasion route from the North and from the sea. It was guarded by two key cities, Megiddo and Jezreel. So, the main body of the men of Issachar were continuing to guard the back-door while Israel resolved a civil war by making David king. (And, it is not at all an accident that David was married to a certain Ahinoam of Jezreel. His other wife at that time -- in those days when polygamy was acceptable -- was Abigail of Carmel. Not coincidentally, that region is the high ground at the Mediterranean end of the same strategic valley.)</span></span><br />
<span class="text Matt-16-4" id="en-AMP-23677"><span class="woj"><br /></span></span>
So, yes, there is clearly a place for maintaining routine operations and a guard on the back door while strategic changes are being made. But such must never become an excuse for refusing to heed the signs of the times and move to a more sustainable strategic alternative.<br />
<br />
A well-judged strategic balance is always called for.<br />
<br />
Hence the subtle wisdom in the Boston Consultant's Group's Growth/Share model of investment portfolios, as we ponder the life cycle of a product-market:<br />
<br />
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We see here how as a new technology comes into commecialisation, a product-market grows theough a wave of adoption. That feeds sales growth which eventually slows and leads to a shake-out crisis as the market saturates. What is now faced is a mature market, which may continue for a time until it fades as a new technology wave takes over. In recent years, for instance, we saw PC's come in, then laptops/ notebooks, then tablets and smart phones, with a bridging market, phablets.<br />
<br />
This means that at any time, we have to exist in the present and support moving to the future. So, at any given time, firms in an industry need <i><b>cash cows</b></i> to feed the <i><b>rising stars</b></i> and <i><b>promising question marks</b></i>, to build the future; even while the cash cows are also feeding us. And, if we have <i><b>"dogs,"</b></i> maybe we need to convert them into profitable niche items.<br />
<br />
That is, if we have items that do not or cannot dominate the overall market, we can seek to dominate specialist sub-markets [strictly, market segments], by in effect redefining what our products are about and just who we must make extra special efforts to tailor and target our marketing mix to. (Apple did this by how it retargetted the Mac PC line towards multimedia productivity, and eventually further specialised on that applications context by moving to standard Intel Architecture motherboards and basing the operating system software on the existing Unix OS. This took out the need to focus on hardware and operating system development (drastically reducing hidden costs), and shifted to optimising the user interface experience. And of course, they shifted to iPods then iPhones, which have dominated the smart phone market, allowing Apple to peak as the highest market capitalisation firm in the world for a time.)<br />
<br />
This context of reflecting for a moment on the world of business raises a logical issue:<i><b> business planning</b></i>. <br />
<br />
While this workshop is in the main about other types of projects, a business launch is indeed a project and business people will profit from this general framework. The key insight for such is that <i><b>a business exists to sustain a profitable customer basis</b>, and as such must compete to win and hold <u>customers</u> in a market where it can so control costs and expenses that it is able to consistently <u>make a profit</u>; whilst, it must also win and hold <u>good staff</u> and it must have a solid base of <u>suppliers</u>, while meeting <u>regulatory and legal requirements</u> as well as the subtler ones of <u>good corporate citizenship</u>.</i> A tough balancing act, but often enough, a rewarding one. If you are considering a project to launch a new business, or to extend or upgrade an existing one -- in effect to re-launch or to do a sub-business -- you will need to use a business plan to help guide you to a feasible approach (and to attract investment).<br />
<br />
The Government of Australia has kindly provided useful guidance on business plans <a href="https://www.business.gov.au/info/plan-and-start/templates-and-tools/business-plan-template-and-guide">here</a>.<br />
<br />
Here, too, is a business proposal at a glance cover sheet template:<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
For Montserrat, all of this speaks straight to our need to appropriately tailor our tourism industry to key niches; then, to use success in that sub-industry to feed well judged future development. And yes, that points to a whole portfolio of projects to move us forward. In the wider Caribbean, there are similar lessons to be taken to heart -- we cannot afford to be caught ill-prepared for the future in a time dominated by rapid change and economic instability.<br />
<br />
If we do not strike this balance, in a world of accelerating change, we will find ourselves trapped in dying markets (likely with high cost undifferentiated products), while new technologies and markets leave us behind. That is, we will be caught on the wrong side of <a href="http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/CreativeDestruction.html">Schumpeter's Creative Destruction</a>.<br />
<br />
So, starting with national level decision makers, we must make a strategic decision to sustain a strategic change programme that allows us to remain competitive in coming decades and generations. (As just one step, this requires sustained investment in education transformation.)<br />
<br />
In a nutshell, this is the strategic marketing challenge our region faces:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU_FSqPTwoXG6n8Pno0kuEzJocqhLLR-9WOp9CugzC8jVj_N0gHVnjBj4A9tShbpB6Owufbr91ZaZbs6fXQNvYgYNqoERCOiwQAWc_J2ii1vsoyglPKTB3Yx1DbMWNrqQDr5wL9VP_REE/s1600/diff_costlship.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU_FSqPTwoXG6n8Pno0kuEzJocqhLLR-9WOp9CugzC8jVj_N0gHVnjBj4A9tShbpB6Owufbr91ZaZbs6fXQNvYgYNqoERCOiwQAWc_J2ii1vsoyglPKTB3Yx1DbMWNrqQDr5wL9VP_REE/s1600/diff_costlship.gif" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cf. IEEE Jamcon 2000 presentation <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByZKFBHV9ve0TlpTeFk1dGRDbkE/view?usp=sharing">here</a> and paper <a href="http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/mechatronics_ja.htm">here</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The world is moving to computer driven high differentiation with relatively low costs, often through mass customisation, allowing great strategic flexibility in marketing. To even be capable of competing in this arena, we have to systematically transform education across our region, so that we can become not just consumers but effective producers using digital technologies. This includes that computer programming and computer science and broader mathematics, science, engineering and technology -- STEM -- is now a critical emphasis for education. In turn, this requires a transformation of basic literacy, reasoning and mathematics education -- the roots of capability in STEM fields.<br />
<br />
We can no longer afford to imagine these are just for a few "bright" people, as the rest of us lack the intellectual horsepower to become more than the equivalent of hewers of wood and drawers of water.<br />
<br />
Here in Montserrat, this already points to a longstanding cluster of key initiatives that are serious candidates for transforming our economy after twenty-plus years of volcano crisis, and we and our development partners must ask, what are we doing to move forward in these areas over the next, five, ten, twenty years:<br />
<ol>
<li>
<b>the Sea Port</b> development (and, subject to agreements, enhancements to the Air
Port),
</li>
<li>
the creation of a stable and cost effective <b>electrical power supply grid</b>,
</li>
<li>
<b>Geothermal energy</b> initiatives, wind, solar, biofuels and other renewable energy
initiatives and energy efficiency initiatives under an Energy Policy,
</li>
<li>
as well as <b>information access</b> (e.g. Fibre Optics),
</li>
<li>
<b>the new town</b> development centred on Little Bay & Carr's Bay, </li>
<li>
support for development of agriculture, energy, technology-based and other potential
industries, financial services and other strategic economic sectors,
</li>
<li>
<b>business development</b> through enterprise incubation and venture capital funding
initiatives designed to foster entrepreneurship and improve the
performance of small and micro businesses, pioneering industrial
initiatives and agricultural enterprises,
</li>
<li>
<b>good governance initiatives</b>, including social welfare, health, youth, minorities, children,
education and training, women, the aged, the vulnerable, the mentally challenged and disabled, poverty, employment, housing
(social and affordable) and similar challenges. (For instance, repatriation of many Montserratians involuntarily displaced due to the volcano crisis.)
</li>
</ol>
So, while day to day operations in government, businesses, education and community must continue, we definitely need a strategic change investment portfolio. One, that is so structured that it allows us to build the capacity to become economically self-sustaining and buoyantly growing in coming years, all in a community that fulfills the Montserrat national Vision since 1997:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
A healthy and wholesome Montserrat, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
founded upon a thriving modern economy </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
with a friendly, vibrant community, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
in
which <b>all</b> our people </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
through enterprise and initiative, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
can fulfill their hopes </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
in a truly democratic and God-fearing society<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif;">.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif;"> </span></span>
<br />
This has been given operational focus through a policy agenda rooted in the 2008 - 2020 sustainable development plan's five main goals:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I: Prudent Economic Management;
<br />
II: Enhanced Human Development;
<br />
III: Sustainable Environmental Management and Appropriate Disaster Management Practices
<br />
IV: Good Governance; and
<br />
V: Improved Population
</blockquote>
In short, there is more than enough basis for a sustained strategic transformation programme here in Montserrat and across the wider Caribbean.<br />
<br />
This also sets the context and fundamental rationale for what is needed for project initiation and start-up:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Project Initiation and Start-up (for "simple" projects)</b></div>
<br />
Yes, for "simple" projects.<br />
<br />
This is after all a 101-level bootcamp workshop, beyond which one needs to do PRINCE2 Foundation, Practitioner and other courses or the substantially equivalent to be fully equipped to practice at the full-bore professional level. But, many of the projects that will be needed will be small and simple ones that can be covered by a small grants/projects scheme integrated into the overall development programme as was already discussed. In addition, people who have some appreciation for project management and some basic skills are then equipped to work better with the professionals working on the more rigorous development projects.<br />
<br />
Let us begin by again looking at the programme-based project cycle, again in the European Union format:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRoMO2a4cx6hWnApHSCyt4BENC8z3I81mACHi1k482A_YAwOZJgM21kGAvRACeCEETLT1EsL1cH2JpI5txKo0edxHEbovkfsdw8ITPUlOb-W8C1QxCJrySt5T5XgRbziqyLQ-AxUPnqYGw/s1600/eu_PCM-fwk.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRoMO2a4cx6hWnApHSCyt4BENC8z3I81mACHi1k482A_YAwOZJgM21kGAvRACeCEETLT1EsL1cH2JpI5txKo0edxHEbovkfsdw8ITPUlOb-W8C1QxCJrySt5T5XgRbziqyLQ-AxUPnqYGw/s1600/eu_PCM-fwk.gif" /></a></div>
It can readily be seen that <i>PRINCE2 and the project cycle management approach are generally compatible, but differ in emphasis</i>. Here, the EU's focus is first on <u>establishing the programme</u> then identifying, <u>formulating</u> (or developing, negotiating, agreeing and funding) a cluster of projects that move towards the programme goals. <u>Implementing</u> (with monitoring, managing and controlling) follows, and that leads to a major <u>evaluation and audit phase</u> that draws lessons for the next loop of the cycle. Issues of course come at the level of detailed integration, tailoring and adaptation. For such, the rule of thumb is, <i>one in the end has to meet funders' criteria and meet quality assurance requisites</i>.<br />
<br />
For the "simple"/"small" projects now in view, we can take it that a programme is set up that generally meets the benchmarks set by PRINCE2 or the like, and is acceptable to funders. That allows us to focus on identification, development, appraisal, funding agreement and chartering of projects to go ahead. Also, on the tools that we can use to help us do a responsible, effective, generally acceptable job.<br />
<br />
From such we see that: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
1] A main tool here is the brief project concept note, with something like a project- at- a- glance cover sheet, log frame, budget and a simple Gantt timeline chart.<br />
<br />
2] Of these, the main design tools are typically the log frame, the budget and the outline Gantt chart.<br />
<br />
3] Where, this will require some clarification of objectives, deliverable results and outcomes/benefits they contribute to, the activities that create the results, and of inputs required.<br />
<br />
4] This implies at least some degree of hierarchical breakdown of the work to be done (and of required time and inputs). The budget's expenditures side comes from this, and the income side comes from the various contributions.<br />
<br />
5] Once these are worked out at least in a rough form, a concept note and a cover sheet can be prepared.<br />
<br />
6] Where, it is also very important to make sure the proposed project is well aligned with the goals, framework and funding criteria for the programme.<br />
<br />
7] Likewise, it is important to show that a project is likely to give good value for money and is not unmanageably risky.</blockquote>
Here, again, is an implementer-oriented log frame:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmfreQNgiyRM36PsXfGbBE3OSlzfsx8BxFN-TnAXrRaGGst9SKUpaJEK6hsXDHEg56I85utwUF3O40yuXyjtt7gcjIIIavHwyOCLL_Oo623rx1LllQVYKGb5b_cppxkEU6vwe8l2jorxB/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmfreQNgiyRM36PsXfGbBE3OSlzfsx8BxFN-TnAXrRaGGst9SKUpaJEK6hsXDHEg56I85utwUF3O40yuXyjtt7gcjIIIavHwyOCLL_Oo623rx1LllQVYKGb5b_cppxkEU6vwe8l2jorxB/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
The <i><b>project framework</b></i> is where we should start, outlining the programme aims the project contributes to, the goals of the project (outcomes to be achieved), the deliverable outputs that enable users or beneficiaries to attain outcomes, then activities and inputs that drive those.<br />
<br />
Here, at initial outline level, ideally as part of a one page, landscape mode table.<br />
<br />
(NB: This is less stringent than may be imagined. If a letter-sized sheet will not do, use a Tabloid one in landscape mode instead and Z-fold it to fit into the printed out version. Use section breaks in the concept note document, to insert it electronically. [This also obtains for Gantt charts and budgets --and, notice how the three charts collectively show how the proposed project is intended to manage effort towards goals, time and money.] Beware, though: inserting sections with odd page types can cause problems with some files. For submission and printing, PDF is -- on long experience -- the most mild-mannered document file format. But if there is a persistent problem, submit a set of files.)<br />
<br />
The next focus is <i><b>implementation, monitoring and control</b></i>.<br />
<br />
Where, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_success_factor"><i><b>critical success factors</b></i></a> are the few things that must be achieved or must be in place if the various elements of the project's framework are to be feasible. In short, what do you need to get the inputs, activities, delivered results, then to achieve outcomes and longer term purpose?<br />
<br />
(That list, by the way, is the <i><b>"Vertical Logic</b></i>" of the Log Frame; for obvious reasons. it sets out how the goals and long-term vision are to be achieved based on given inputs and activities yielding deliverable results as outputs. Then, as we begin to move across the table from left to right, we are now filling in the <b>"Horizontal Logic,"</b> which is the key to understanding how the project is to be managed and why it is feasible.)<br />
<br />
What are the indicators of these CSFs? How can these be observed or measured, and how can these be monitored, for management and control? (Again, brief outlines in the table.)<br />
<br />
Critical success factors, invariably, depend on the environment being in a supportive condition. So, the next logical question is, what are the <i><b>key assumptions</b></i> that lie behind the CSF's and the project framework?<br />
<br />
Then, <i><b>how risky are these assumptions</b></i>: high, medium or low?<br />
<br />
If key assumptions break, what can you do to address these <i><b>contingencies</b></i>?<br />
<br />
(This tells us a lot about risk management and also value for money. Which, we now need to address:)<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Value for Money and Management of Project Risk</b></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7eLqVJzBR8SJDCm60dw03nmXqOQEWOFw0BfoFd_-BaBrzpKexfBLRl38PYu5knr89WEnYJphUvoIMHqhdn3qRJ7yGet9YuYfo6EjpIATmpbrvux7LH-KqKJ65krZuzKASEaxU6vGatggy/s1600/st_geo_draco.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7eLqVJzBR8SJDCm60dw03nmXqOQEWOFw0BfoFd_-BaBrzpKexfBLRl38PYu5knr89WEnYJphUvoIMHqhdn3qRJ7yGet9YuYfo6EjpIATmpbrvux7LH-KqKJ65krZuzKASEaxU6vGatggy/s320/st_geo_draco.gif" width="251" /></a></div>
It is time for St George to go slay a dragon or two.<br />
<br />
Two of the issues that have long been bugbears for development projects in Montserrat (and elsewhere) are the twin perils: value for money and risk management.<br />
<br />
Let us first ask: what is risk?<br />
<br />
The answer is, a way to understand uncertainty and variability of outcomes, or else of our lack of full, certain knowledge about a situation, say, X. If we knew about X beyond all doubt the risk would be zero. X will be so for sure, or X will not be so for sure. In the murky middle, we are dealing with our degree of ignorance, which (oddly enough) maximises at 50:50 odds -- as far as we can tell, X is as likely to be so or not be so, we have no further basis for concluding its odds.<br />
<br />
We might as well flip a coin.<br />
<br />
In short, <i>probability is a measure of degree of ignorance and thus uncertainty</i>.<br />
<br />
When we can assign reasonable values [at minimum, high, medium, low], we term it risk, otherwise it remains uncertainty. (And, suddenly the reason for the three categories of odds on assumptions in the log frame swims into view, when we know assumption A is unlikely to break, it is of low risk. If it is likely indeed to break, it is of high risk. If we are facing high uncertainty, for all we know we should be flipping coins here, and so we are in the middle, "medium" risk.)<br />
<br />
For projects, we may wish that assumptions were certainties, but reality is not like that.<br />
<br />
The very fact that we are dealing with assumptions not facts means we are facing a degree of ignorance and are betting on the state of the world or of others we have to deal with. And obviously low risk assumptions are better than high risk ones.<br />
<br />
Ones we lack enough information to decide either way, belong in the middle.<br />
<br />
Now, just a few high risk assumptions can break a project, so if there is a mounting number of such in your log frame, refocus the project design towards being an exploration, a research into the circumstances that then reduces risk for onward work.<br />
<br />
(For instance, in recent years, we can see how first, we recognised from the eruption and the history of hot water springs. This indicated that we may have a viable Geothermal Energy resource. Surface investigations allowed us to identify zones of interest, and these were followed by mapping exercises that led to the famous X marks the spot. Then, the high cost, high risk drilling was done. We hit a resource, but the two wells were a bit marginal. Now, we are in progress with Well 3, to see if we can get a bigger proved resource. Initial signs are promising, but that is not the same as certain. Similarly, in the 1960's NASA did not go straight to the Moon. First, there were sub-orbital rocket flights, then there were orbital flights, then there were space walks, and other exercises that allowed a knowledge base to be built up. Then, when Apollo 1 was built, disaster struck, three Astronauts were burned to death in a capsule fire on the launch pad. A lot of redesign had to be done, and then by Christmas time 1968, they were confident enough that the very first manned Apollo flight went to the Moon, orbited it and returned to Earth. By July 1969, we had the first Moon landing.)<br />
<br />
Likewise, when a project design has a significant number of "medium risk" assumptions, that points to a likelihood that some at least will break. In effect, we have a high degree of ignorance regarding the situation. In that case, again, redesign towards being an exploratory project.<br />
<br />
With explorations in hand -- often, via consultancies -- we can proceed to stronger evidence-driven projects to exploit opportunities and counter threats, compensating for weaknesses that remain.<br />
<br />
This already shows us how an incremental -- "exploration first" -- approach can allow us to manage risk and improve expected value for money. Which, is Dragon No. 2.<br />
<br />
Dragon No. 2 turns out to be our old friend the Iron Triangle, in disguise. As in, if we set a reasonable quality threshold, we face a three way trade-off: wide scope, cheap cost, short time. Pick any two, you pay for it with the third. To see that, let us consider:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt4s1Lb9ORLYQ_3NrcmP4MGrGqtrrAniqFI4oWaiDJpKP5hvtpmSTxmUD2LAIkZ41mB1eok1Onp6eQlJnpJ4F1rBWBwCkPFLz4LQ4VvwA20naPP8QqWNWzP2qqtB_3pRFjFBSmVcY21e1i/s1600/vfm-tradeoff.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt4s1Lb9ORLYQ_3NrcmP4MGrGqtrrAniqFI4oWaiDJpKP5hvtpmSTxmUD2LAIkZ41mB1eok1Onp6eQlJnpJ4F1rBWBwCkPFLz4LQ4VvwA20naPP8QqWNWzP2qqtB_3pRFjFBSmVcY21e1i/s1600/vfm-tradeoff.gif" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">SOURCE: GEM/TKI, 2016, cf. <a href="http://www.acqnotes.com/Attachments/NASA%20Systems%20Engineering%20Handbook,%202007.pdf">NASA Sys's Eng'g H/b, 2007</a>, pp. 16 - 17. Note, "affordability"<br />
offers more flexibility than "cost," as a cost can be made more affordable by how it is financed and <br />
paid for across time. (Cf. Hire Purchase and Lease-To-Own. In a national development <br />
context, a well managed key project can pay for itself through induced economic growth.)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First, the performance floor sets the minimum acceptable threshold for "fair" quality performance. Second, we see a trade-off along the arc with cases A, B and C on it, showing how affordability and performance are traded off. Timeliness is of course an aspect of performance. So, along the trade off arc, we are exchanging performance and affordability, seeking to get a sweet-spot where there is acceptable and even good performance that is reasonably affordable. <br />
<br />
Second, affordability and performance are <b>weighted scorecard indicators</b> ("metrics"). In effect we have, for cost linked factors C1 to Cn with weights w1 to wn:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Affordability, A = w1 x C1 + w2 x C2 + . . . wn x Cn</blockquote>
<br />
and for performance factors P1 to Pm, with weights v1 to vm, <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Performance, P = v1 x P1 + v2 x P2 + . . . vm x Pm </blockquote>
This way, we can compare options, The result is generally that some point A has a better balance than C or B, as it is of good performance, without losing a lot of affordability to gain a fairly modest further increment of performance .<br />
<br />
(We must also recognise that affordability is not quite the same as price or cost. For, if something is such that we can afford to lease it now towards ultimate purchase, the overall cost may be higher but the cost now is lower. If well judged, the item may then help us earn enough to pay for itself. If an item is built to be extended, it is also possible to buy at A and as one's capacity increases, extensions can be used to enhance performance. For example, it is wise to build a house with room for extension, and it is advisable that the sea port development be such that it has room to grow with our economy.)<br />
<br />
Now, too, performance factors are often traded off against one another.<br />
<br />
For instance, time is often a key issue. So, if other desired performance factors ("features," etc)can be ranked in priority, we can then decide how to adjust performance in light of time pressure or delays etc.<br />
<br />
This points to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MoSCoW_method"><b>the MoSCoW prioritisation rule</b></a>:<br />
<dl><dd>MUST have this requirement to meet the business needs.</dd><dd></dd><dd>SHOULD have this requirement if at all possible, </dd><dd>(but the project success does not rely on this).</dd><dd></dd><dd>COULD have this requirement </dd><dd>(if it does not affect the fitness of business needs of the project).</dd><dd></dd><dd>WON'T represents a requirement that stakeholders have postponed </dd><dd>(due to the timeliness requirement) </dd></dl>
This now sets up:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Budgeting and Timelines</b></div>
<br />
As we already saw from Smyrk's ITO model, in projects, effort is applied to (or by) inputs to carry out activities that give rise to outputs. These initial outputs then come together to yield the overall deliverable results that provide benefits to users. These benefits then give rise to outcomes and help to attain long-term goals:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8LIVReexMqYiinWDtm5HduxvxUmHZwJu06h9lxfJ9JKNULnkI2LB9cz65F2_B96V6Qi6YEBEr1rI3GfTVcuqA-sjomQksOEDtATUuZqwZsW5Y1iUBsdjAUDkGBE8TDZrUeOtJtqV7grHZ/s1600/Smyrk_ITO-model.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8LIVReexMqYiinWDtm5HduxvxUmHZwJu06h9lxfJ9JKNULnkI2LB9cz65F2_B96V6Qi6YEBEr1rI3GfTVcuqA-sjomQksOEDtATUuZqwZsW5Y1iUBsdjAUDkGBE8TDZrUeOtJtqV7grHZ/s640/Smyrk_ITO-model.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Generally inputs have associated costs and the process of delivering outputs takes both skilled effort and time. In addition, there are going to be overheads such as administration, accounting and quality assurance, facilities, utilities etc.<br />
<br />
An older version of Microsoft Project allows us to see how these come together in project planning:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr86VMbEColLYy29nq5v-t_CAVEeSGCBVIXVqEg0TBQ19IXyQjvuK79J01lxBDLpngp1WWq0mn6i5S6NiBF0uc-9eLPq75HC3CShxXOFbEvB5TxU7BMfLIpTIiZkjDiCj07eSZU2aoKbWn/s1600/pm_wbs_t_cost.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr86VMbEColLYy29nq5v-t_CAVEeSGCBVIXVqEg0TBQ19IXyQjvuK79J01lxBDLpngp1WWq0mn6i5S6NiBF0uc-9eLPq75HC3CShxXOFbEvB5TxU7BMfLIpTIiZkjDiCj07eSZU2aoKbWn/s1600/pm_wbs_t_cost.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
To see how simply such a chart can be composed, here is an image from <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060116024116/http://www.mos.gov.pl/mos/publikac/Raporty_opracowania/manual/source_4.html#9.25">a key case study</a> in an old Polish Ministry of Environment Project Cycle Manual (cf. Wayback Machine, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20051224000216/http://www.mos.gov.pl/mos/publikac/Raporty_opracowania/manual/">here</a>):<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvV1rS-ubj3G288i2brKgXUk8Ti10qatdUnVvt-k2P3yApJ7T_x4pC3hzXSyyBDJ3EDRrpF2rr09Amp_-dBPNyvIkd4Y8cPIPvFTN5dO3OQZSaYigU0eJf9Pu9JqP2NpQnpyyHmfzgXFaa/s1600/PL_simple_gantt.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvV1rS-ubj3G288i2brKgXUk8Ti10qatdUnVvt-k2P3yApJ7T_x4pC3hzXSyyBDJ3EDRrpF2rr09Amp_-dBPNyvIkd4Y8cPIPvFTN5dO3OQZSaYigU0eJf9Pu9JqP2NpQnpyyHmfzgXFaa/s1600/PL_simple_gantt.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The hierarchical work breakdown can be shown through <a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/78182/Steering_Committee_Nuts_and_Bolts_Fact_Sheet.pdf">a work breakdown structure chart</a> [cf linked Tasmanian Government Fact Sheet], illustrating how work and budget go together:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj20_tumacd1eRyYrGJQBTbf7Jf5alnuQ8_TqSfloU5CvSikhY_h2IGj8g4sn_rysf6gpq3_dPp5GRARjAoRF72qDlEveGK3hV6pIUoeC5CSbyUfgWzDI5RvjHKWBINf4ipsUAJDwV2K0U0/s1600/wbs-sample.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj20_tumacd1eRyYrGJQBTbf7Jf5alnuQ8_TqSfloU5CvSikhY_h2IGj8g4sn_rysf6gpq3_dPp5GRARjAoRF72qDlEveGK3hV6pIUoeC5CSbyUfgWzDI5RvjHKWBINf4ipsUAJDwV2K0U0/s1600/wbs-sample.png" /></a></div>
<br />
A simple format for a project budget could be:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieekgm_yOFR0gH83FaRoQ-7kO1k7aQVeEA3IFAElwNc63oCfsweywRKgoq04lbM_ZY1ChLLfKbasj68sijAtkTbaPwnHyMtegctT7GcHk_ROo5ewR9qjnHWk-BQSXmuQymm8_BV1Xgs626/s1600/simple_proj_budget.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieekgm_yOFR0gH83FaRoQ-7kO1k7aQVeEA3IFAElwNc63oCfsweywRKgoq04lbM_ZY1ChLLfKbasj68sijAtkTbaPwnHyMtegctT7GcHk_ROo5ewR9qjnHWk-BQSXmuQymm8_BV1Xgs626/s1600/simple_proj_budget.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Obviously, for a complex project, such would be composed using project management software, but they can be done more or less by hand on a whiteboard or the like for a simple project, and/or for initial design sketches. (Of course, a smart phone or tablet pc then allows self-documentation through snapshots.)<br />
<br />
Effort in man-hours or days by type of work can also be put in.<br />
<br />
Projected numbers would come from informed judgement, or from norms established through experience.<br />
<br />
With these in hand, budgets can be composed, timelines can be worked out and the log frame can now be updated with more specific information.<br />
<br />
In fact, the process is usually interactive and iterative, until a reasonably coherent view is in hand.<br />
<br />
It is worth the momentary pause to point out that a summary level, <a href="http://www.egovernment.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/78112/Developing_a_Gantt_Chart_Fact_Sheet.pdf">simple Gantt Chart</a> [cf. linked Tasmanian Government Fact Sheet] can be used to present the timeline for a programme, such as <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByZKFBHV9ve0R3pfalhEeDh5Z0E/view?usp=sharing">this live example</a> composed using a MS Word Table:<br />
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFnCHG0YqhppaWkWM3b9STvyW6dmcjFZt4WDwwc9sdCc4W5CL1UyPAGvXGrSHnOLEAhtMFm_I-6lmChCQ09ii3aUk5NS4cm-c9jOkrx8nHIeP2vt2txTvYFl2WRoHMjmgRPlSY8YBmwLFk/s1600/MNI-08-27energy-5y-plan.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFnCHG0YqhppaWkWM3b9STvyW6dmcjFZt4WDwwc9sdCc4W5CL1UyPAGvXGrSHnOLEAhtMFm_I-6lmChCQ09ii3aUk5NS4cm-c9jOkrx8nHIeP2vt2txTvYFl2WRoHMjmgRPlSY8YBmwLFk/s1600/MNI-08-27energy-5y-plan.gif" /></a></div>
(A summary level log frame can be similarly used to outline a programme.)<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjy_xAoIUhyZNAdzHcoUSBBT9a7GY9pvz_Cz_46DXW1DYeZdVakXVNNjNIJAIYtI7QgJYEUmODOQGTtvSEXytKnc3ja0-Xtd1V0ebtLQc1sP6eyD4siRVEXhNWciEaZnKbwRruqxbDk-nH/s1600/tacking+sailboats.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjy_xAoIUhyZNAdzHcoUSBBT9a7GY9pvz_Cz_46DXW1DYeZdVakXVNNjNIJAIYtI7QgJYEUmODOQGTtvSEXytKnc3ja0-Xtd1V0ebtLQc1sP6eyD4siRVEXhNWciEaZnKbwRruqxbDk-nH/s200/tacking+sailboats.jpg" width="123" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tacking upwind to the goal</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The above are main, well-tested design tools. They are also well suited for onward management of execution and adjustments can be made as necessary while this is in process.<br />
<br />
The real world course of a project is seldom direct, it is rather like a sailing yacht making progress upwind by tacking from side to side (see the illustration) as conditions allow.<br />
<br />
We may now turn to writing up a coherent, well-grounded project concept note:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The Project Concept Note</b></div>
<br />
This note is a short (aim for 3 - 5 pages) summary of the project for initial exploration and preliminary feasibility- desirability- priority assessment. It will append the log frame, timeline chart and budget (and perhaps an outline work breakdown structure if such is desired.)<br />
<br />
For small, simple projects it is often enough. With more elaborate projects, this is the point where the professionals would come in, to help develop a full project proposal or "business case" for more elaborate appraisal and possible initiation.<br />
<br />
Such a project concept note -- cf. sample worksheet <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByZKFBHV9ve0WW1FMGIyRGg5VmM/view?usp=sharing">here</a> -- may be structured as follows:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>ORGANISATION<br />PROJECT CONCEPT NOTE<br />By John R Doe/ Jane R Doe et al <br />DATE</b></blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>TITLE:</b> Be brief, descriptive, and memorable. <br />
<br />
<b>INTRODUCTION:</b> A brief statement of the need for the project, why it is important/urgent to meet the need, and how it may be successfully and sustainably met through carrying out this project. What is the FIRST thing you want the reader to know about your project? <br />
<br />
<b>1] Background and Rationale:</b> An exploration of the context for the project, in light of the underlying analysis, giving a bit more detail than the introduction on:<br />
<ul>
<li> How the need for a project came to be; </li>
<li> A thumbnail sketch on the state of the art in knowledge on the matter: environmental [PEST + Biophysical] factors, trends and dynamics, issues/controversies and perspectives, how interventions could give rise to the desired outcomes. </li>
<li> The existing/expected resources and stakeholder commitments that permit an effective response to be developed; and, </li>
<li> What factors could motivate a switch from business as usual to a more sustainable path through doing the project. </li>
</ul>
<b>2] Goals and Objectives:</b> Concisely state the overall goal to be achieved through doing the project. Then, break it down into a small list of more specific, brief, observable (and preferably quantitatively measurable) objectives that can be achieved by given times (to the day, week, or month, typically). When attained, these objectives should collectively indicate the achievement of the goal. <br />
<br />
<b>3] Proposed Implementation:</b> Briefly outline how the project would be organised, managed and carried out using people, organisational, financial and material resources, across time. (It may be helpful to draw a log frame, a timeline chart and a work breakdown structure chart. An organisational framework for making decisions about and managing the project will also be helpful.) <br />
<br />
<b>4] Milestones and Deliverables:</b> Identify and list, stage by stage, what the project is to achieve and produce as outputs. (These will be used for monitoring, management, control and evaluation of the implementation process, so inception, interim ["progress/gap"] and final narrative and financial reports will be important deliverables.) <br />
<br />
<b>5] Inputs:</b> Identify and list the inputs required for the project: people and skills, teams/work-groups, reporting linkages, equipment, space, materials, funds, permits required, etc. <br />
<br />
<b>6] Estimated Budget:</b> A summary budget based on reasonable estimates of the costs for major activities, and on contributions from the different funding (and in-kind) sources. Perhaps, best as an appendix, with a reference in the main text, as that allows easy exclusion in copies circulated to those who do not need to see a budget. (The log frame and work breakdown structure are very helpful in budget construction. It is often useful to include a contingency sum, to be released under appropriate authorisation if/as contingencies are warranted or unforeseen opportunities arise.) <br />
<br />
<b>7] Key Assumptions:</b> Identify and list critical environmental conditions that may affect the achievability of the project's goals. Some assessment of their risk and impacts on the project may prove helpful, with some brief reference to how they will be monitored and responded to as necessary. <br />
<br />
<b>8] Outcomes, Benefits and Impacts:</b> A year or so after the project has been completed and users will have been using its delivered results, what will it have changed for the good? What about five to ten (or more) years after? Who will directly benefit from these medium- to long- term changes? Who else may be affected by the project, for good or ill? [These groups are the stakeholders.] Also, if the project is likely to significantly affect the human or natural environment (e.g. gender issues, cultural heritage sites, stakeholder groups, economic prospects of stakeholders, rivers, watersheds, forests, coastal zones, threatened flora and fauna), favourably or adversely, this should be briefly noted and requirements for preparing an Environmental Impact Assessment (if one is needed) should be listed. <br />
<br />
<b>SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS:</b> Summmarise the point of the project as briefly as you can, state your verdict on feasibility, importance and desirability, and invite participation. A respectful, professionally dignified tone is best. <br />
<br />
<b>APPENDICES:</b> Logical Framework (which will provide the basis for many of the above sections of the paper), and contact information for the project implementers. Any other reference material that seems appropriate, such as a SWOT analysis chart, a Budget, or a Gantt Chart or a Work Break-down Structure chart.) </blockquote>
<br />
In addition, it may be advisable to head it with a one-page project at a glance summary, such as:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR1bcAgDUE-DAHVCjPP-yxQIQdZj6dlbENaCkamgx8wb8L5-mu7U6LSWRWFaiAs9YTpqSnZOlR186Ga3HYt8p83oiXAeR-XTy7V0BWraY3CASQV7MvHZHXWXBmNIpRSzLlyEUUtd78-MAd/s1600/proj_on_a_page.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR1bcAgDUE-DAHVCjPP-yxQIQdZj6dlbENaCkamgx8wb8L5-mu7U6LSWRWFaiAs9YTpqSnZOlR186Ga3HYt8p83oiXAeR-XTy7V0BWraY3CASQV7MvHZHXWXBmNIpRSzLlyEUUtd78-MAd/s1600/proj_on_a_page.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
(Great care should be taken with such a one-page summary, as this is likely to be the point where a decision to take as closer look is made.)<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Getting to Project Start-up and actual Implementation </b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>(From the Proposer's/ Implementer's Point of View)</b></div>
<br />
Obviously, a lot of work has already been done to get us to the point of a project concept note backed by a credible organisational framework and matching contributions in cash or kind to present to a potential project partner. Work, that is on speculation fired by hope.<br />
<br />
The issue is to close the deal.<br />
<br />
Which can be very hard to do.<br />
<br />
Potential grant agencies (or lenders or equity investors, or working partners) have their own priorities, limited resources, limited time to assess proposals, and -- often -- serious questions about the credibility of would-be partners. They do not want messy divorces, too.<br />
<br />
Our mission at this point -- building on the work done under the first two Units -- is to break through those barriers and close the deal, getting to actual launch. Potential partners have to buy in, not only to the ideas but the would-be implementers. (And, let us remember, there are likely several suitors for the same funds and/or technical support etc.)<br />
<br />
How can we stand out?<br />
<br />
It helps, if there is an existing relationship, or if the development process is in the context of building a relationship.<br />
<br />
It helps, if there is a track record of success.<br />
<br />
It helps, if there are some known, credible names with good track records involved.<br />
<br />
(And no, do not yield to the temptation of padding resumes; that will not work in a modern, Internet and social media world.)<br />
<br />
It helps, to see what sort of enemies key names have -- you can tell a lot about someone by knowing who do not like him or her, why. It helps to have the right sort of enemies, not just friends in high places.<br />
<br />
It helps, to do your homework: research the potential partner, and subtly tailor what is proposed to meet their history, culture, priorities and contexts.<br />
<br />
It helps, to be able to quietly show that you have in place the key elements of a critical mass to move an initiative forward. As was noted in Unit 1:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Idea <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Originators</b></span><br />
Idea <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Champions</span></b><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Sponsors</b></span> at Middle/Senior Management level<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Incubators</b></span> that allow initiatives to be developed and practically demonstrated<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Godfathers</b></span> at Top Management level</blockquote>
It helps, to have built a credible programme-based organisation, or to be part of one. At least, show good reason as to how the project will enable formation of an effective organisation structure.<br />
<br />
It helps, to pay attention to quality and performance assurance.<br />
<br />
It helps, to have a solid log frame that shows adequate attention to risk management and value for money etc.<br />
<br />
Budgets, work breakdowns and timelines should be realistic.<br />
<br />
A solid one-page project at a glance is more than worth its weight in gold.<br />
<br />
Do you have in place a good MoSCoW prioritisation of deliverable results?<br />
<br />
Is your framework clearly capable and flexible?<br />
<br />
And, more.<br />
<br />
Sadly, sometimes, all of this is just not enough.<br />
<br />
There are no guarantees, and we must learn to live with rejections.<br />
<br />
So, have a network of potential donors and partners, and be persistent.<br />
<br />
(More than one best-selling novel was tossed by editors in major publishing houses before someone spotted the gold and ran with it.)<br />
<br />
Do not give up hope, if you have a solid vision, persist.<br />
<br />
At minimum, go for a shoestring-snowball strategy. (That is, take a shoestring and ball it up, form a snowball, and get it rolling and picking up mass. It is not just Oak trees that start from little nuts that got going and -- despite long odds, daunting obstacles and many disappointments -- just plain kept on going.)<br />
<br />
It is not for nothing that Faith is <i>the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen</i>.<br />
<br />
Persist, as one who <i>sees the invisible</i>. <br />
<br />
<b>FOR DISCUSSION</b>: xxx GEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-22359422708359963832016-12-06T09:20:00.002-08:002016-12-24T20:47:12.283-08:00PM101 U3: Getting to Agreement to Implement and obtaining Resources for a Projectxxx<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
XXX <br />
<br />
<br />
<b> INTRODUCTION:</b> For this workshop, while commercial or construction or information technology projects are relevant, our main focus is on national or community development initiatives. A key constraint for such projects is that, <i>when one puts forth a project beyond the reach of one's own resources, one must find a suitable investment partner (as well as a network of support to get the idea to a point where it is "bankable") and strike a deal in order to implement at full scale</i>. This is quite challenging, as potential development partners must always bear in mind the long (and unfinished) history of once promising but now failed grand development projects. This also means, that getting to agreement to implement a project and then actually obtaining resources to carry it forward will always be a challenge.<br />
<br />
How to address this challenge, then, is the logical focus of this third unit; requiring that we focus on several fairly technical issues. Such as, the BATNA concept and negotiations, evaluation of net present value and other discounted cash flow based financial metrics, associated estimation of unit and life cycle costs of initiatives, requisites for "business cases" posed by development agencies, and more.<br />
<br />
Where, too, given that the DFID-backed St Helena Airport investment was held up to us as a "yardstick" for development initiatives in Montserrat, the sobering outcome to date is a very instructive place to begin:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The St Helena Airport Project <br />(From "yardstick" to cautionary tale . . . )</b></div>
<br />
In the DFID May 2012 report on its work with UK Overseas Territories, we may read -- yes, right from p. 1:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirn_DsQhSmB11O48zjwo7Ayk7tG9sGEbq1i4CkSQQ5_JAIz7cNmqcYowld2dQfmU8cE924at4oe_GWKIWOV2PAC91p0wSh95R8ny2lASVoJ5NyL4UiEQSpNHdSX4VINoyVG3nMA3ua6ozU/s1600/st_helena_yardstick_doc.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="602" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirn_DsQhSmB11O48zjwo7Ayk7tG9sGEbq1i4CkSQQ5_JAIz7cNmqcYowld2dQfmU8cE924at4oe_GWKIWOV2PAC91p0wSh95R8ny2lASVoJ5NyL4UiEQSpNHdSX4VINoyVG3nMA3ua6ozU/s640/st_helena_yardstick_doc.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
As Pitcairn is an isolated Pacific island territory with some fifty permanent residents at any given time, and as St Helena had already been awarded a major development project, it is fairly obvious that the authors of this report were trying to draw the attention of Montserrat to what was needed to follow the path laid out by St Helena. Namely, good governance reforms and linked transformation of financial management capacity to move to a self-sustaining local government based on a sufficiently large, growing and stable economy.<br />
<br />
Where, Montserrat did just this between the 1960's and 80's -- itself a yardstick of the likely scope and duration of of effort required. Yes, a generation.<br />
<br />
Of course, in the aftermath of financial scandals that hit world news in the late 1980's, followed by the devastating Hurricane Hugo in 1989, we were hit by the even more destructive volcano disaster since 1995. Montserrat lost access to 2/3ds of its land, lost 2/3rds of its population, lost its main infrastructure (such as sea and airport, power plant, capital town, etc.) and had its economy crash in upon itself to the point where today it is about 50% of what it once was. It is likely that we will need a major development programme of 10 - 20 years to get back up on our own two feet.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rcsCEv5jh4">Back to the yardstick</a>, the very familiar economy transformation hope, and the huge scale and scope of the effort to begin its fulfillment:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0rcsCEv5jh4" width="640"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, however, despite construction success, something has gone seriously wrong with the "yardstick."<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6_bD_7QptAyVRMzFgpLzE7YuRSqInbBGpBZ18XYEDDYJVpxY9xgjtlFfDS0z7uf8tFIJ1tfct6Jb6gg__RKOwmbrx3gVpsEp6V7NpeP2d2iiLb25XBwNM7pLc8OPcwo3Njnjy8aS86Tl4/s1600/First_Comair_Boeing_737-800_flight_to_Saint_Helena.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6_bD_7QptAyVRMzFgpLzE7YuRSqInbBGpBZ18XYEDDYJVpxY9xgjtlFfDS0z7uf8tFIJ1tfct6Jb6gg__RKOwmbrx3gVpsEp6V7NpeP2d2iiLb25XBwNM7pLc8OPcwo3Njnjy8aS86Tl4/s400/First_Comair_Boeing_737-800_flight_to_Saint_Helena.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">First Comair flight to St Helena (HT: Wiki & Paul Tyson)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Something, that is commonly reported in the UK press in terms we may summarise as <i>DFID incompetently wasting £ 285 millions of UK taxpayer funds to build a useless airport because it suffers a wind shear problem</i>. (Cf. recent UK newspaper reports <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3622981/The-250m-island-airport-jets-t-land-windy-guess-aid-money-paying-it.html">here</a>, <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2396780/where-is-st-helena-airport-and-why-is-it-controversial/">here</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/21/st-helena-islanders-compensation-285m-airport">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
Ironically (given its sometimes all- too- deserved reputation for lack of balance),Wikipedia has a much more informative and fair-minded <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Helena_Airport">report</a>, which reads in key part:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAcDCWEgCX9rH0GH-q3_u0mHxaZQJQ52H43QXc-21GeNh9JfKFJ735k4RiHg88vbP47JO2XaBEI-dLdHyltqnhTerKaSkHbCeN4OL-TZF-Uk9hwnXOF-4cC9tY_fla7oCzf6LA_WRKY83A/s1600/shear_st-H.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAcDCWEgCX9rH0GH-q3_u0mHxaZQJQ52H43QXc-21GeNh9JfKFJ735k4RiHg88vbP47JO2XaBEI-dLdHyltqnhTerKaSkHbCeN4OL-TZF-Uk9hwnXOF-4cC9tY_fla7oCzf6LA_WRKY83A/s320/shear_st-H.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Wind Shear issue (HT: Guardian: it is convenient<br />
to include this separate illustration here.)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In November 2015 a delay of the opening [of the recently constructed St Helena Airport at Longwood] from February to May 2016 was announced.[49]
This was needed "in order to fine tune the operational readiness of the
airport".<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"> On 26 April 2016 a further delay to the opening, without a
specified end date, was announced by St. Helena Government because of
concerns regarding wind shear, after a problematic landing by the [British Airways livery] Comair 737-800 intended for regular flights.[50] It is southbound landings (runway 20) that have wind shear problems, not northbound.[51]
There is a need to define measurement methods for the wind shear in
order to understand when landing can be done, and when to cancel
flights.</span> The late postponement has caused extra cost, for example
contracted employees and contracted airlines that cannot operate, hotels
that have been built, and also the need to extend the usage of the RMS
ship, which was contracted to end its sailings.<br />
<br />
UK-based Air Safety Support International (ASSI), a subsidiary company of the <span class="mw-redirect">Civil Aviation Authority</span>
responsible for aviation safety in Overseas Territories, issued on 10
May 2016 a safety certificate after having conducted an inspection in
April. The certificate indicates ASSI's satisfaction with the airport's
infrastructure and aviation security measures, and that its air traffic
control service complies with international aviation safety and security
standards. ASSI did not allow the airport to go into commercial
operation, however, due to concerns over operational readiness of
monitoring and clearing issues that include wind shear and turbulence.[52]<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">There is a suggestion to use only runway 02, that is northbound
landings and southbound starts, but then 737-800 aircraft cannot be
used, because planes need to be able to land in tailwind.[53]
If runway 20 is used, it will have severe wind restrictions.</span> (This is
the same one runway, designated differently as 02 or 20 depending on
either north or south direction of travel).<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">An important reason to build the airport was availability for medical
emergency evacuation. On 3 June 2016 the first ambulance flight took
place, for a baby and its mother.</span>[54]<br />
<br />
A debate about the project was held by the House of Lords in London on 17 October 2016.[55]<br />
<br />
A new certificate was delivered on 26 October 2016 by ASSI[56] [Acc: Dec 19, 2016, typo corrected and links, styles etc. removed.]</blockquote>
Wiki's discussion of key reasons for the project is also relevant, including the discussion of the planned wharf at Rupert's Bay:<br />
<ul>
<li>Air access would allow St Helena to develop its tourism sector.</li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">A planned wharf in Rupert's Bay could allow regularly passing cruise
ships to land passengers at the island and bring tourists if sized
appropriately. The lack of a protected landing facility represents a
limitation on the development of cruise tourism. In unfavourable sea
conditions, landing is hazardous and potential revenue is lost as many
cruise ships refuse to allow passengers to land in such circumstances.
In addition, because there is no protected landing facility, many cruise
companies do not incorporate St Helena into their itineraries.</span> The sea
is roughest in summer which marks the peak of the cruise season.[60]</li>
<li>Medical evacuations to South Africa for treatment of serious cases
of illness would be sped up significantly: it may take up to one month
until transport to South Africa by the RMS St Helena becomes available.</li>
<li>The availability of heavy construction equipment would facilitate alternative energy projects, such as the construction of larger wind turbines, a tidal power plant or a dam with a hydro-power station in one of St Helena's valleys.[61] Limitations in cargo size of RMS St Helena and the unavailability of a large crane prohibit construction of larger wind turbines.[62]</li>
</ul>
Now, there is something passing strange here, as wind studies and computerised modelling of wind flows seem to be reasonable bits of due diligence regarding feasibility. These should be <i>standard</i> steps to design a modern airport. Plainly, something did not go right in the scanning of and response to the environment, especially the bio-physical environment; leading to a serious problem. But, apparently, one that can be lived with, many airports do suffer wind shear challenges but operate.<br />
<br />
This unfortunate development, however, inadvertently highlights how tempting it is to short-circuit the project cycle management process, and how important it is to resist that temptation. Hence, we now turn to:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The pivotal impact of Programme-based Project Cycle Management [PbPCM]</b></div>
<br />
A good first point of discussion is the older form of the EU project cycle management process. One, which emphasises documents and decisions at each phase -- and please pardon the fuzziness of an old diagram:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgulvfatWi8yz01w-7EYZtQVKEtbcW4a-_Bp75sj2KWzezacszgB-MR-Oi7D7T3YZ7Aq8mqMkjmSypJa3WQ66cpnIqiTljJfSMKqGj1rrgvL22LNwZAx-LoYpC4h06GHEN8bDRGXvVGj82Z/s1600/eu_pcm_cyc_deciss--old.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgulvfatWi8yz01w-7EYZtQVKEtbcW4a-_Bp75sj2KWzezacszgB-MR-Oi7D7T3YZ7Aq8mqMkjmSypJa3WQ66cpnIqiTljJfSMKqGj1rrgvL22LNwZAx-LoYpC4h06GHEN8bDRGXvVGj82Z/s640/eu_pcm_cyc_deciss--old.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Older EU PCM framework, emphasisisng decisions and key documents. (NB: as always, terminology varies. E.g.<br />
a <i>"Project ID Sheet"</i> is substantially equivalent to a 1 page project-at-a-glance backed by a concept note, and the<br />
<i>"[Draft] Financing Proposal"</i> is a stand-in for "[Draft] Business Case"; on the premise that<i><b> the portfolio of<br /> projects is a <u>strategic change investment portfolio</u></b></i>.) Observe, especially,<i> the pre-feasibility and feasibility studies</i>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Where, we may recall, projects are like the fingers of a hand (the programme) that help the programme to work towards its goals. So, let us again unpack what is inside the <strike>black</strike> -- err, <i>blue</i> -- box bearing the innocent and simple-seeming label "programming." A lot, frankly potentially involving a managerial mine-field:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVpllmabhUgOg_TQeXQZ7l4-KFoRc4Y2iCSMd9YJxyq69ev3qacGGZnKWOC-dt5jpPD6h6ROMygJEfiCKBW4E79YozdOibUoHlySeUEs3VBRn4P6Aqt13Zf_ll0tWM16YLBJR6Bkm078/s1600/pgm_of_action_matrix_team_org.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="625" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixVpllmabhUgOg_TQeXQZ7l4-KFoRc4Y2iCSMd9YJxyq69ev3qacGGZnKWOC-dt5jpPD6h6ROMygJEfiCKBW4E79YozdOibUoHlySeUEs3VBRn4P6Aqt13Zf_ll0tWM16YLBJR6Bkm078/s640/pgm_of_action_matrix_team_org.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Accordingly, we can see that<i> when a strategic change programme is undertaken, its associated portfolio of projects -- in aggregate -- should make direct and strong contributions to achieving the programme's goals</i>. This, we can assess and track by using <b>an initiative-goals alignment matrix</b>, e.g.:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP8dvcWY5DzfLr2OWfzjTXbNCwmAhXcQ5_BRw1qbkcMsFgqT8rrYlBW9_z5vXPyT1x4YGOFT-klWTJXEr5zhFSCM4vU_YCFnt-RGvWSg5bEjPjyfyF7d3aUyiiC9C7vwo4ZcdkF0DDYMso/s1600/pgm_acn_means_vs_ends.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP8dvcWY5DzfLr2OWfzjTXbNCwmAhXcQ5_BRw1qbkcMsFgqT8rrYlBW9_z5vXPyT1x4YGOFT-klWTJXEr5zhFSCM4vU_YCFnt-RGvWSg5bEjPjyfyF7d3aUyiiC9C7vwo4ZcdkF0DDYMso/s1600/pgm_acn_means_vs_ends.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Here, we see how <i><b>a programme's vision</b></i> defines its <u>end</u>, while its <u>means</u> are <i><b>the initiatives towards that end</b></i>:<br />
<ul>
<li> first, it needs to see about its own <i><b>organisation and governance</b></i> (which need to be credibly conducive to actually making good progress), then </li>
<li>there must be a sustained focus on the <i><b>portfolio</b></i> of projects and sub-programmes it considers, evaluates and undertakes, then </li>
<li>the actual <i><b>implementation and supervision</b></i> of projects (including handling inevitable contingencies), and also</li>
<li>fourthly, tracking of what <i><b>projects</b></i> should do vs what they do in fact do, milestone by milestone.</li>
<li>Stage by stage, project by project, <i><b>lessons</b></i> need to be drawn, learned and applied, in order to build <i><b>capacity</b></i>. </li>
</ul>
Patently, such a programme can fail at any stage, so it has to be carefully chartered and managed indeed. (Here in Montserrat, it would probably be an instructive exercise to look at the projects over the past 20 years (or even just the past 10 years), to see how well means and reasonable ends have been aligned.)<br />
<br />
Nor, can we get away from this complexity by thinking, <i>well . . . programmes are too complicated, let us stick to "simple" projects</i>. The challenge here, is that projects of any serious complexity inherently involve programming issues and so the choice is: <i>do we do the same over and over again project by project or do we co-ordinate the projects under one head and set up the capacity to do it right in one centre of excellence?</i><br />
<br />
The better alternative is obvious: <i>programmes</i>.<br />
<br />
All of this also has to be keyed to the inherent degree of complexity (and linked uncertainties/ ignorance/ risks) of a given proposed project. Which, we may illustrate:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm4KvwksC_d5JxFrobqQmx1FPOw5AA1GL20m_RPVetyRLVNREWMOgeSmoaC5VsQZeS8lySYDHmhM_5-ZkquVBfFyV2gqL5qirWFLw55EXPZyu0b463dWSCeTQR7ex8NfitJmDChrUfxRYK/s1600/project_complexity_visualiser.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="558" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm4KvwksC_d5JxFrobqQmx1FPOw5AA1GL20m_RPVetyRLVNREWMOgeSmoaC5VsQZeS8lySYDHmhM_5-ZkquVBfFyV2gqL5qirWFLw55EXPZyu0b463dWSCeTQR7ex8NfitJmDChrUfxRYK/s640/project_complexity_visualiser.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
Some projects are fairly routine, like building a house. While there may be problems and contingencies, we can generally predict what will happen and so we can plan with high confidence that the plan can be made to work, maybe with a delay or two and some modest provision for contingencies.<br />
<br />
Other projects face much higher levels of uncertainty and/or disagreement on requirements or the technology involved. Such projects necessarily will involve learning and adaptation to contingencies along the way. At moderate levels, these require adaptive planning such as <a href="http://www.dummies.com/careers/project-management/agile-project-management-for-dummies-cheat-sheet/">the Agile methods</a> that now dominate Information Technology projects.<br />
<br />
But, there are projects that go well beyond merely moderate uncertainties and/or disagreements.<br />
<br />
These are the most challenging and potentially chaotic projects.<br />
<br />
When we face high uncertainty and lack of agreement as to what is feasible, desirable and good value for money on an important initiative, it is obvious that we need to explore possibilities and see if we can create the technology and systems to deliver the desired results. Perhaps, as prioritised on a MoSCoW type schedule (as was already mentioned): <br />
<dl><dd><u>M</u>UST have this requirement to meet the business needs.</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>S</u>HOULD have this requirement if at all possible, </dd><dd>(but the project success does not rely on this).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>CO</u>ULD have this requirement </dd><dd>(if it does not affect the fitness of business needs of the project).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>W</u>ON'T represents a requirement that stakeholders have postponed </dd><dd>(due to the timeliness requirement)</dd></dl>
<br />
When the degree of disagreement emerges across stakeholders that points to such a potentially chaotic project, a logical first step is to try to undertake a preliminary project to investigate what is credibly possible. That instantly points to creating a programme of projects that start with explorations to reduce the uncertainties and clarify options so that we can move to a much clearer cost-effectiveness decision on performance and affordability.<br />
<br />
And yes, that decision framework chart is needed again:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtCTGAmeuuxp75xdi3iWm4cVmGs319naJWYqaw20jzXe5mCtiluSnbKATFXg9pe5nWUBkoHYiDyD8duhugJrr1khh9CFFsWeW4u6iFBy7lVTjz90zpFaINcIc5bIvTGwuhHhiQnP0dMiH2/s1600/vfm-tradeoff.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtCTGAmeuuxp75xdi3iWm4cVmGs319naJWYqaw20jzXe5mCtiluSnbKATFXg9pe5nWUBkoHYiDyD8duhugJrr1khh9CFFsWeW4u6iFBy7lVTjz90zpFaINcIc5bIvTGwuhHhiQnP0dMiH2/s1600/vfm-tradeoff.gif" /></a></div>
The arc BAC defines a frontier of credible or actualised possibilities -- backed by some evidence and analysis, and we then can reduce the degree of disagreement on requirements. Obviously, we do not want to fall far within the frontier, and yet -- given high uncertainty -- some alternatives may have two possible outcomes: (a) success, more or less along the frontier somewhere, or (b) failure which gives poor -- or no -- performance at a high price. A flop, and in the worst case, with funerals.<br />
<br />
This, we wish to avoid or avert.<br />
<br />
So, it is likely best to identify a clutch of candidates and explore initially, then hold a contest to identify which should go ahead. This points to the world of <a href="https://acc.dau.mil/adl/en-US/19255/file/81380/DoD%20Extension%20to%20PMBOK.pdf">Acquisition projects</a>, similar to what the leading militaries of the world undertake. In some cases, the best answer is a blend of the candidates (e.g. the World War I era British 18 pounder field artillery piece), but that, too, may fall between stools. So can the "compromise" to do an incremental upgrade on existing kit. (Typically, this sacrifices some degree of future performance in the interests of higher affordability. If you will pardon an extended military example, the successor to the 18 pounder -- the famous World War II 25 pounder -- started out as an upgrade to the 1918 upgrade of the earlier gun, then was itself upgraded. However, it sacrificed range requirements identified in the 1920's. It was only in the 1960's - 70's that a weapon with truly adequate range was finally developed and issued. The lesson is,<i> if we extend or modify an existing system, what are we sacrificing, and is that vital -- a case where half a loaf is as bad as none? </i>[Or, sometimes worse, as it may give false hopes or even breed over-confidence.] It is therefore suggested,<i> we need to pay particular attention, here in Montserrat, to the hospital, sea port and air port projects.</i>) <br />
<br />
It helps to see what NASA -- a world expert agency carrying out this sort of project -- does with such projects, through its <i><b>systems engineering engine</b></i>:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ3VdypR4KTjPaKYsaHm9Zv-qTS-oqJX5j8WBZvsoVbBboqJOrRVBIiA477VgWmQPyCWZkE0U_G6j_mhbsIw3aZQ6eQegXYXkH9lDw9VG0EEGac3c0Y_DP9m49-VmgVjCb8aqX6P23Ngfx/s1600/NASA_syss_engg_engine.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ3VdypR4KTjPaKYsaHm9Zv-qTS-oqJX5j8WBZvsoVbBboqJOrRVBIiA477VgWmQPyCWZkE0U_G6j_mhbsIw3aZQ6eQegXYXkH9lDw9VG0EEGac3c0Y_DP9m49-VmgVjCb8aqX6P23Ngfx/s640/NASA_syss_engg_engine.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
And yes, that is <u>seventeen</u> different standardised interacting stages in such a development, and that does not count the similar work on sub-levels for work packages or sub-systems.<br />
<br />
There is a reason why they talk about "bleeding edge" technologies.<br />
<br />
And while this workshop is not about preparing people to work on NASA Moon Shot type projects, sometimes it is necessary to explain to (or, work out with . . . ) stakeholders what sort of sharks may lurk in the waters we are swimming in.<br />
<br />
In doing this sort of exploration, two worksheets -- they can be done as large wall-charts also! -- may be helpful. First, on environment scanning PEST+BP Alignment:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmqH8ht9WKKjOtiRWOPuttRqP-g6-xTHrk2FkdBJiVxXJk0cknCYiE3tYY8B9orRuvdRoYv7mZEPoqGdY3RhaYF97F4x4YZWexFvkgEFR7NepGEoxvN9KmRqJ89IyybDe3SZ8uAFHcTrli/s1600/pest-bp%2526swot_frwk.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmqH8ht9WKKjOtiRWOPuttRqP-g6-xTHrk2FkdBJiVxXJk0cknCYiE3tYY8B9orRuvdRoYv7mZEPoqGdY3RhaYF97F4x4YZWexFvkgEFR7NepGEoxvN9KmRqJ89IyybDe3SZ8uAFHcTrli/s1600/pest-bp%2526swot_frwk.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Second, SWOT-Strategy alignment, with an emphasis on strategic change:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQPgVetRnH5VXMDszSqliZAU0xraBUMdbeKpF-yKDtopwYNjZUNMaA8rpS8qpJu8nQDIKpSRRSNrJubSdKuvwYqpxeTo6pI8UfBArv3qJePUVJyuUQalnSZI5lDKdCpybSdtzRua2yl5tW/s1600/swot-strat_alignt.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQPgVetRnH5VXMDszSqliZAU0xraBUMdbeKpF-yKDtopwYNjZUNMaA8rpS8qpJu8nQDIKpSRRSNrJubSdKuvwYqpxeTo6pI8UfBArv3qJePUVJyuUQalnSZI5lDKdCpybSdtzRua2yl5tW/s1600/swot-strat_alignt.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
When used with proper stakeholder consultation and investigatory studies -- a preliminary project -- these allow us to move to an agreement on reasonable options informed by a credible view of the facts, conceptual issues, complexity challenges and more.<br />
<br />
Where, the key strategic issue is to move to critical mass informed by sound understanding. Recall, such <i><b>critical mass</b></i> involves:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Idea <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Originators</b></span><br />
Idea <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Champions</span></b><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Sponsors</b></span> at Middle/Senior Management level<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Incubators</b></span> that allow initiatives to be developed and practically demonstrated<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Godfathers</b></span> at Top Management level</blockquote>
When you have such, have satisfied significant <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>responsible critics</b></span> and are able to handle<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b> idea and implementer hit-men</b></span>, then progress can be had.<br />
<br />
Then, we may properly organise a sound programme backed by adequate support. Such a sound programme, obviously, must involve an agreed -- documented! -- standardised framework for project cycle management. (Or else, we will forever be moving in fits and starts: <i>okay, go . . . no, stop . . . okay go again . . . no, stop, stop, STOP!</i> . . . endlessly. [Sounds familiar? (For starters, cf. the EU PCM Handbook, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/sites/devco/files/methodology-aid-delivery-methods-project-cycle-management-200403_en_2.pdf">here</a>.)]) <br />
<br />
After these issues are tackled, we can get projects moving.<br />
<br />
The next step in that process is:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The value for money (and linked risk management) challenge</b></div>
<br />
Projects involve effort and resources, may require purchase of equipment and more, all of which comes with costs, directly in money or generally reducible to money. So, the natural question arises, is this project delivering good value for money, compared to alternative uses of the funds and effort required?<br />
<br />
That is already a challenge as we have seen from the chart on performance vs affordability. (Notice, not costs directly!)<br />
<br />
Closely tied to this is the issue that there is a <i><b>time value of money</b></i>. That is, <i>once there is a rent on the use of money -- the rate of interest -- money takes on a time value, such that money now is equivalent to a larger sum later</i>, which must be <u>discounted</u> to be compared to other relevant sums. Money must be compared to money as discounted to the same point in time, often "now."<br />
<br />
Suppose, we have EC$ 1,000 now. Suppose also, the rate of interest is 10 percent. After one year in the bank on a fixed deposit, that EC$ 1,000 would grow to EC$1,100. So, EC$ 1,000 a year from now is obviously worth less in present value than EC$ 1,000 now. In fact, to get the equivalent in now-dollars, we would need to divide: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
[EC$1,000/ (1.10) ] = EC$ 909.09 . . . now.</blockquote>
For the now-cash equivalent of EC$ 1,000 two years from now, we would need to divide by 1.10 again (giving us EC$ 826.45), and so forth. (The origin of the term <i><b>"discounted" cash flows</b></i> is now obvious. The more distant a cash flow CF is in the future, the lower its <i><b>present value</b></i>, PV, is.) <br />
<br />
Discounting applies to cash inflows and cash outflows. And so, when we look at a project, typically we pay out a fairly large sum now, then more in several succeeding periods, to get started. Then, we hope to receive benefits later. That already means that benefits are at a disadvantage, but that is the nature of things. We can picture this, through the <i><b>net present value</b></i>, the sum of the cash flows all reduced to now -- and the "M on the side" is the Greek capital letter sigma, for SUM:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKg5ryM4iL8XmgG08ZgXW1jJH78IzQ2TBaBsph-gWlKk2mv-yTwF5hBxlBjQsrqGyr3jwVhod60KdefdOvaUbmzKA2IkPUo-sr2tavDhC8zj3Dp6wo2h1ZdNthwI28YXcwu_L3yZNLqVmN/s1600/project_CF-tval.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKg5ryM4iL8XmgG08ZgXW1jJH78IzQ2TBaBsph-gWlKk2mv-yTwF5hBxlBjQsrqGyr3jwVhod60KdefdOvaUbmzKA2IkPUo-sr2tavDhC8zj3Dp6wo2h1ZdNthwI28YXcwu_L3yZNLqVmN/s1600/project_CF-tval.gif" /></a></div>
A closely related idea is <i><b>internal rate of return</b></i>, IRR; in effect <i>the value of the fractional rate of interest r that is such that NPV of a project's cash flows falls to zero</i>.<br />
<br />
While IRR is mathematically more problematic, it has the practical advantage of allowing potential investors to think in terms of rates of return. As in,<i> is the effective "internal bank" that this project is, giving enough of a higher rate of return than putting the same sum in an external bank at lower risk of loss</i>. For NPV, <i>if the net discounted value of a project is positive, it is worth investing in</i>. Though, of course, one would be well advised to test the sensitivity of NPV to reasonable contingencies and risks. And, <i>rate picking is often a bit of a debate</i>.<br />
<br />
Economists often favour <i><b>cost-benefits ratio analysis</b></i>: taking a ratio of summed discounted cash values of benefits to that of costs, looking to see if this is at least one.<br />
<br />
An older "simpler" evaluation is <i><b>payback period</b></i>, how long a project takes to pay back its costs -- without discounting. This is not recommended by financial professionals.<br />
<br />
All of these methods target value for money invested or expended.<br />
<br />
In a not for profit, or an energy conservation or a development project context, often projects do not turn over a profit. However, <i>if a project significantly reduces costs that would otherwise have had to be met, that is a measure of its value</i>.<br />
<br />
We need not more than mention that there are ways to estimate the value of things that are not directly traded in markets, e.g. if an improved highway reduces accidents, the income losses averted is an index. For some things, surveys have been done on things like how much would you accept not to make a visit to a park to go fishing today, etc.<br />
<br />
Similarly, for energy projects, <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0ByZKFBHV9ve0dEIxYWVKeUt6dWc">the Montserrat Energy Policy 2008 - 27</a> discusses cost per unit of electrical energy on p. 60 ff, using a <i><b>levellised cost per unit model</b></i> put forward by the Ampere Commission of Belgium:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM5SsdhfCHev7juPYRVv-I3-pUta9tInk_0r4x2xXqkJ-7muuqvr_sNWBXtN-OCCPToJGzNcK-yaDm65gnSJXC7HcNk2ezkVC_pIgxkfVApbWztSi6c64g5vQuGwC3RYSYjV_yZZXmHanH/s1600/amp_com_lev_costs.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM5SsdhfCHev7juPYRVv-I3-pUta9tInk_0r4x2xXqkJ-7muuqvr_sNWBXtN-OCCPToJGzNcK-yaDm65gnSJXC7HcNk2ezkVC_pIgxkfVApbWztSi6c64g5vQuGwC3RYSYjV_yZZXmHanH/s640/amp_com_lev_costs.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
(This model directly speaks to geothermal energy development, or to solar photovoltaic development or to wind development. It can readily be adapted to other cases where a capital-intensive investment provides small lumps of benefits to various users over many years. Think, cost per mile of use of a vehicle or fleet of similar vehicles, or the like. Cost per hour of highly technical services can be used to compare developing capability in-house vs. hiring an outside supplier or even putting one on retainer. This is a classic <i><b>make vs. buy</b></i> acquisition decision.)<br />
<br />
Obviously, these waters get very deep very fast; one would be well advised to bring in professional advice. But, equally, we need to have enough of an idea of what is being done that we are not simply blindly accepting Expert X's say-so.<br />
<br />
We now have in hand a way to look at investments, outlays, cash flows, costs or benefits in financial terms across time. This then allows us to for instance compare <i><b>discounted life cycle costs and benefits</b></i> of alternatives. However, as we readily know from say buying a car on a loan -- for which we have to pay "rent" to use the funds -- affordability is not the same as cost and affordability that brings benefit flows now may well trump raw differences in cost. In effect, we are implying that the value of getting benefits now outweighs the additional cost -- and our willingness to take up such a car-loan tells a savvy analyst an estimate of the implicit value of getting the benefits now.<br />
<br />
We already know that performance can be assessed on a weighted score-card.<br />
<br />
That brings us back to the "value for money" chart above, and its curve of the "frontier" of options. Obviously, alternatives along arc CAB exceed those inside the curve and given state of the art, we typically cannot credibly go beyond it. This means debate focusses on options along the arc. Of these, <i>generally speaking, we are willing to pay a modest bit more to gain a jump from marginal or fair to good performance, but will find it harder to push on towards much more costly further increments of performance</i> that challenge affordability or perhaps force us to <i><b>"rob Peter to pay Paul."</b></i> <br />
<br />
The trick then becomes, can we find an alternative that builds in room for growth, so picking A for the long haul does not lock out adding increments as our ability to afford improves? Where of course such modularity and ability to add further performance can be duly factored into our performance scorecard. (A classic here is a starter home designed to be extendable. Similarly, we often see software with core features and add-on optional modules.)<br />
<br />
The further issue on this is, we are often pushing technological limits and are less than certain that promised or hoped for performance will be actualised. So, we may find ourselves paying for flops. Which, contrary to lurid investigative reports, is not by itself proof of incompetence, waste, fraud or abuse etc. There is such a thing as a high-risk, high potential pay-off option, and a calculated risk sometimes has to be taken.<br />
<br />
In this case, if we can reduce uncertainty by doing preliminary exploratory studies, this may well be worth it. Of course, we must expect to pay the realistic going rate for requisite expertise. Just make sure it can stand reasonable scrutiny in some of the more notorious Fleet Street tabloids that seem to see every overseas aid expenditure as waste or worse. It may well be worth the while to inform such, that the alternative to a global major aid effort is war followed by recovery and then development aid in the midst of post conflict fragility. Let us ponder an overview of current geo-strategic issues and challenges, for a moment, to give a deep background:<br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />
In short, there are major destabilising trends and there are those only too eager to pounce. Especially on Africa, the unguarded, distressed, largely poorly governed but resource-rich continent. Where, we of the Caribbean must understand that we are in effect an extension of Africa (and in the SE Caribbean, Asia) in the Americas. With the Panama Canal next door and the USA to our North. Which makes us an extension of what is credibly the principal geo-strategic target zone in this century.<br />
<br />
Nor, can major powers simply withdraw from or try to ignore geo-strategic contests in an increasingly global world. That sort of failure of resolve simply hands an open invitation to would-be looters and conquistadores.<br />
<br />
So, it may be a lot cheaper, less risky and less bloody to simply go straight to aid backed by governance reform and security/stability efforts.<br />
<br />
Where, it has been suggested that if the 40 or so leading countries expend 0.7% of their annual national income on aid, across a generation or a few, global poverty can be eliminated. In the case of DFID, there is an additional remit to see to the reasonable assistance needs of UK overseas territories as priority. And, under the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/chapter-xi/">UN Charter Article 73</a>, the UK is duty bound to promote development transformation in its overseas territories. Something, acknowledged in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/14929/ot-wp-0612.pdf">the 2012 FCO White Paper on Overseas Territories</a>, cf. pp. 13 and 17.<br />
<br />
The ALARP principle of risk management -- <b><u>a</u></b>s <b><u>l</u></b>ow <b><u>a</u></b>s <b><u>r</u></b>easonably <b><u>p</u></b>ossible -- therefore applies; and, here we can give also a way to think about DFID's favoured <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffic_light_rating_system">"red- amber- green" scales</a>:<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
The result of this balance is that we are back at MoSCoW priority rules, accepting good enough, affordable performance (and managing the degree of risk stage by stage) while looking to the future hoped-for increments. It is worth repeating these, for emphasis:<br />
<dl><dd><u>M</u>UST have this requirement to meet the business needs.</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>S</u>HOULD have this requirement if at all possible, </dd><dd>(but the project success does not rely on this).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>CO</u>ULD have this requirement </dd><dd>(if it does not affect the fitness of business needs of the project).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>W</u>ON'T represents a requirement that stakeholders have postponed </dd><dd>(due to the timeliness requirement)</dd></dl>
We must not forget, too, that the implementer-oriented, adapted log frame allows us to highlight and manage risk of critical success factors and associated assumptions. This is to be achieved through contingency planning carried out stage by stage of the project:<br />
<br />
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<br />
This enables us to list business as usual -- make no significant change to the present situation -- and several alternatives along the arc CAB, and discuss the issues of risk, value for money, likely outcomes of various options, then to put forward one or more main recommendations.<br />
<br />
Such becomes particularly important when we consider major development initiatives, but in embryonic form will be present even with simple projects being proposed under a small projects grant scheme. Indeed, the two can be tied together, as some small projects may well be exploratory, research phases for major development interventions.<br />
<br />
All of this now points onward to:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> The risky, development-catalysing strategic project challenge</b></div>
<br />
The St Helena airport case highlights how a catalytic initiative involving one or more strategic projects can credibly catalyse development. But also, such may be quite risky, and may fail. This often results in a "bubble" of unsustainable growth that looks rosy at first and feeds a consumption boom, but then one day, pop! And, the economy can then crash in on itself, getting stuck in long-term low-growth stagnation. (Arguably, our failure to adequately manage volcanic hazards here in Montserrat led to a situation where a significant slice of the growth trend up to the 1980's proved to be unsustainable because of failure to adequately identify and manage PEST + BP trends and potential shocks. [A point that we need to seriously discuss -- never mind the pain -- and draw lessons from.])<br />
<br />
A useful context for understanding this, is, first, <a href="http://geographyfieldwork.com/MultiplierEffect.htm">Myrdal's circular, cumulative causation</a>:<br />
<br />
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<br />
The idea is, that when a new industry of significant size opens up in a community or region (or an old one receives a major investment), it induces onward growth in other industries, which spreads through the economy in waves. This then can come back full circle and there is a self-reinforcing growth in the economy. However, this also works in reverse, once an economy receives a shock, it can lead to waves of negative growth pushing it into recession and perhaps stagnation. In Montserrat, that is exactly what happened with the volcano crisis.<br />
<br />
Now, this may seem a bit far afield for small development projects, but the issue here is that there needs to be an insightful background that shows in the arguments being made, building confidence that the proposers of the projects know and understand the strategic context for what they are putting forward.<br />
<br />
Therefore, an "in a nutshell" is in order. (As a start-point!)<br />
<br />
In this context, it is worth pausing to look at the aggregate supply, aggregate demand [AS-AD] picture of an economy as a whole, as individual markets add up to give an overall level of performance:<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
Here, we see how the performance of supply (S) and demand (D) behaves in individual markets, and how this adds up to give an overall price level and real output picture. In effect, economies tend to saturate, there is only so much productive capacity at a given time. So, if aggregate demand is rather low, a stimulus can trigger growth with relatively low inflation, but then an economy can overheat, hitting its natural capacity Y* and attempts to push it beyond that level will only lead to rising prices as producers have to bid for very tight resources. This leads to inflation plus resistance to stimulus-triggered further growth. The solution, obviously, is that the economy needs room to grow, increased productive capacity; but that may take a long time to be put in place, for many reasons.<br />
<br />
Also, economies are prone to shocks, which can cause a sudden loss of productive capacity. Suddenly, the shocked economy is stagnant and inflationary. This can trigger long-term stagnation too.<br />
<br />
Austrian Economist Friedrich von Hayek provided a picture of what it takes to produce what we consume at a given time, which we can then put in a wider community context:<br />
<br />
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<br />
Here, we see that an economy has a long tail, tooted in the community and its key factors of production and stability: natural resources, community culture and capability of its people, how well it is governed, its economy and policies etc. Across time, investments are made that move us from what we mine, hunt, fish and grow, to intermediate goods and services, to the final goods and services consumers purchase.today's consumption depends on previous investments, some of them going back 20 or more years. To keep that process going, there is a continual need to re-invest, and that can be a challenge as investment is inherently quite risky behaviour.<br />
<br />
Another Economist from the wider Austrian school of thought, Roger Garrison, gives us a useful bigger picture of the macro-economy:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
The key issue here, is that when we make an artificial development intervention, we are in effect trying to push the economy out beyond its present sustainable production possibilities. This is inherently risky (it can trigger a mal-investment- led boom with amplification through unsustainable consumption, triggering a crisis and collapse well within the production possibilities frontier that can end in long term stagnation due to the havoc wreaked . . . ), but with prudence such can pay off dramatically. (Cf. KF Pamphlet <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByZKFBHV9ve0cUpoUW9sb2pONnc/edit">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
In the Caribbean, that points to development banking initiatives as centres of excellence in supporting such interventions. (Where, yes, the Caribbean Development Bank has been such a centre of excellence for nearly half a century now . . . ) Also, to careful targetting of sound catalytic investments that have potential to trigger growth and transformation.<br />
<br />
Development agencies such as the EU, DFID and other partners are also key potential partners.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Getting support and releasing resources:<br />deal-making, BATNA's and the multi-turn development game</b></div>
<br />
At this point, we are close to getting a project to move ahead with a suitable partner.<br />
<br />
A sound proposal, driven by a solid idea and involving implementers who are credible is exactly what development aid agencies and development banks are looking for. From a <a href="http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/DFID_HowtoNote_BusinessCase_Aug2011.pdf">2011 DFID guide to Business Cases</a>, here is a summary of the sort of things they are looking for in a full-bore proposal for development investment:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
. . . A Business Case sets out the rationale for choosing a project, programme, or approach to funding (referred to collectively as an intervention). It aims to provide a consistent approach to the choices and design of DFID interventions. This note is targeted at all staff involved in the design of interventions leading to investment decisions [ --> that is, this is viewed as internal to DFID] . . . . The Business Case has 5 interdependent cases:<br />
<blockquote>
<b>Strategic Case</b> – sets out the context and the need, including for DFID intervention. Sets out the Impact and Outcome we expect to achieve.</blockquote>
<blockquote>
<b>Appraisal Case</b> – explores how DFID will address the need set out in the Strategic Case, appraises options, and identifies which best delivers value for money.<br />
<br />
<b>Commercial Case</b> – ensures that the option is commercially viable and delivers value for money through procurement;<br />
<br />
<b>Financial Case</b> – establishes that the option is affordable and that the principles of sound financial management for public funds are followed;<br />
<br />
<b>Management Case</b> – sets in place the arrangements necessary for the successful delivery of the intervention including procedures for monitoring and evaluation.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
(An eye-opening example relevant to Montserrat is the 2012 case for a further injection of funding for the Montserrat Development Corporation, <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0ByZKFBHV9ve0eHdaMldqeVVNVkk">here</a>. [NB: The Original bears only a file number, 3689352 and is stored in ODT format. I have provided a PDF copy as just linked. This is the document that says of MDC, c. 2012, that:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div align="justify" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">From
an institutional perspective the MDC has not performed to date as had
been expected. The diagnosis of <span style="background-color: #ea9999;">this failure</span> is clear – too broad a
remit given the staffing constraints, over ambitious targets and
expectations, lack of clarity on how much independence and authority
MDC was to be given, poor governance arrangements, a micro-managing
Board of Directors and inadequate performance from the original
implementing consultants.</span> Upper Quartile</span><sup><span style="font-size: x-small;"><sup>1</sup></span></sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">
report was very clear on the institutional constraints:</span></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
“<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">in
our view, the single most important factor has been the lack of
consistency and continuity in executive leadership. In the space of
its first three years, there have been three CEOs, none of which have
stayed in post longer than six months. There has been no CEO for the
last 18 months. We do not think that the broad mandate is the problem
– it makes sense to manage this range of activities in a properly
integrated way especially in a small economy. But the task becomes
impossible without a CEO and executive team that can build the
knowledge, relationships, trust and credibility necessary to make
such a broad remit work. Most of the other symptoms could have been
treated or worked around by strong executive leadership. <span style="background-color: yellow;">The lack of
delivery has been a human resource problem rather than a mandate one”</span>
(Upper Quartile 2011)<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"> . . . </span></span></span><br />
_____________ </div>
</blockquote>
<div id="sdfootnote1">
<blockquote>
<div align="justify" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1
Upper Quartile consultants were commissioned in 2011 to review the
institutional framework and mandate of the MDC with a view to
proposing a viable way forward.</span></span></div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br />
This document is crucial for understanding Montserrat's ongoing development challenges and should be carefully consulted in its own right, not just as an example for what a DFID Business Case looks like. Another DFID document to ponder is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/291982/HTN-strength-evidence-march2014.pdf">this</a>, on evaluating the strength of evidence.])<br />
<br />
In addition, DFID uses an "Intervention Summary," a form of executive summary, and specifies use of a log frame. The case shown is in a somewhat unconventional format relative to standard log frames (and flows over into a second page, making it harder to interpret):<br />
<br />
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<br />
The implication of this approach, is that DFID needs to receive and appraise a significant project proposal, which then triggers whatever internal processes are required to create a business case; perhaps in partnership. Such a proposal needs to be composed with the internal requirements of DFID in view. Unfortunately, relevant templates -- unlike the case for the Tasmanian Government -- are hard or impossible to find online, so it is advisable to work backward from an example such as the just linked.<br />
<br />
(BTW, I should note here, that in my view unless one is dealing with an actual business disciplined by need to be profitable based on controlling costs and selling products, and needing to be viable in equity and bond markets or with banks, "business case" is perhaps not the best term; <i>organisations that operate administratively and are not disciplined by the need to be viable in customer and investment markets face very different incentives</i>. Something like <i><b>organisational strategic change case [OSCC]</b></i>, may more exactly describe what is being done.)<br />
<br />
A subtle issue, here, is to see that small projects of exploratory and pilot character are very worthwhile, as building capacity and as setting the groundwork for the major projects to follow as the meat of a strategic change programme.<br />
<br />
So, the argument needs to be made, and made by our regional governments and research centres, including universities and colleges. (Where, we should bear in mind that Cuba has some forty universities and is quite willing to work with the Anglophone Caribbean through Caricom etc.) Also, by small business associations, chambers of commerce and industry, farmers associations, even departments of government and community based organisations.<br />
<br />
A very special place is there for educators, also. For, the central and most precious resource for development is found between our ears.<br />
<br />
And, what is right or wrong with education today may well be opening opportunities or closing them off for the next twenty to forty years. So, <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByZKFBHV9ve0RWktQ2t4bVAzT1U/edit">we must have a vision for reform and transformation of education</a> led by capable champions, using sound evidence gathered through significant research and analysis.<br />
<br />
A similar case can be made for various sectors.<br />
<br />
However, again, there are sharks swimming in deep waters here.<br />
<br />
First, to get to agreement, we have to arrive at a stick-able deal in a situation of competition and actual or potential conflict and polarisation. This already brings out the <i><b>pattern of styles of outcomes</b></i> that may (and often do) happen:<br />
<br />
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Too often, where there is a looter culture in an organisation or situation. Where, the issue is to win at expense of the weaker party, whose bargaining stance is in effect<i> let me take what I can get -- a raw deal -- and make the most of it; perhaps . . . until I can get away to less oppressive climes</i>. However, sometimes, we see the power of revenge: <i>I have already lost, I don't care what happens to me now but I am taking you down with me.</i><br />
<br />
Oppression is not ultimately sustainable -- but it may work for a very long time.<br />
<br />
Compromises are often little better, <i>we split the difference now, planning to come back for more later, after forging and sharpening a better knife to put in the back</i>. (Let us not fool ourselves that many compromises represent a positive outcome. Especially, when a ruthless and irreconcilably hostile opponent sees <i><b>a long-game solution</b></i> of gradually weakening resolve and shifting power balance through <i><b>an agenda of successive loaded compromises</b></i>, to eventually impose a victory on his terms over a fatally weakened opponent. The only practical solution to this is to be resolute to deter such and to make sure one understands the long game. As the Romans said so long ago: <i>if you want peace, prepare for war</i>.)<br />
<br />
The better option is based on principles of true peace, harmony and justice rooted in mutual respect and willingness to find grounds on which there can be <i><b>a multiple turn, win-win, "positive sum" outcome</b></i>. [Cf. Wiki article on the theory of repeated games, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repeated_game">here</a>; as a first level reference on a non-ideological topic.] One, that brings sustained and sustainable benefits to all relevant stakeholders. <i>Start with armed compromise, then move to building trust and relationships then move to working together in an atmosphere of trust backed by trustworthiness, to incrementally build a sustainable win-win outcome</i>.<br />
<br />
In this context, it is not to be overlooked that the modern approach to sustainable development was championed by a socialist leader from Norway, Gro Harlem Bruntland. And while it is true that too often there has been a hidden watermelon environmentalist/ socialist agenda -- green outside, red inside -- it is equally so that <i><b>the sustainability principle</b></i> of better and more fairly meeting our needs today AND tomorrow, through better husbanding our bio-physical, socio-cultural and economic environment is a reflection of the Golden Rule and/or Kant's Categorical Imperative. Particularly, that we should hold each other as fundamentally equal in moral value and so act with mutual respect rather than treating others as mere means to our own particular ends.<br />
<br />
This leads us, next, to the need to examine the <i><b>Overton Window</b></i> and <i><b>BATNA</b></i> concepts, in the following context of the grand ideological "game" -- in the <a href="http://www.iep.utm.edu/game-th/"><i><b>game theory</b></i></a> sense -- of our time:<br />
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Here, we have to reckon with <a href="http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/straight_or_spin.htm">media and education manipulation</a>, marches of folly and the sort of distortion that may well create a topsy-turvy, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2afuTvUzBQ&feature=related">Plato's Cave world</a> in which darkness seems light and light darkness. Thus, first we need to seek genuine enlightenment on sound grounds, as a basis for moving beyond the oppression and hidden agenda of destructive compromises games. This requires creating, sponsoring and supporting centres of analysis and information that are sound and become credible. This "mainstreams" the possibility of moving to win-win solutions based on trust and trustworthiness. Of course, this points to the need to sponsor independent think tanks and associated small pilot project or exploratory initiatives that show on the ground what is possible: it is hard to dispute a demonstrated fact.<br />
<br />
(Hence, the power of a programme of small projects, and the danger of using money to create an <i><b>"astro-turf" false fron</b></i>t of fake "grassroots" organisations manipulated behind the scenes by the ruthless. [For Montserrat, one part of a solution would be to create a community forum that represents local areas and a reasonable cross section of civil society which is then incorporated in consultation, participation and policy-making through <i><b>mainstreaming</b></i>.])<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow"><b>The Overton Window</b></a> comes up in that context. For, we see how -- based on what has transpired and the balance of ideas, forces, credibility, capacity of people and institutions etc -- there is a relatively narrow window of feasible policies and alternatives in a community at any given time. Such is locked in by two <i><b>BATNA's</b></i> -- walkaway points where powerful coalitions will withdraw support for working together, leading to a down-spiral of polarisation, antagonism and conflict. In today's age, inevitably, such will be coloured by the Left vs Right debates.<br />
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BATNA and bargain-striking are very important, as the walkaway option . . . the best alternative to a negotiated agreement . . . is the ultimate basis of bargaining power. If I have a serious walkaway option, I will only deal to get a better option. So, we need to find something that is mutually advantageous -- which may require a fight first:<br />
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Obviously, we are here dealing with the big decisions, how they are made and how they are made to stick. That is, with <i><b>governance</b></i>.<br />
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And, it is further obvious that in a region with a horrible history of oppression and injustice, starting with the slave trade, piracy, plantations based on slavery and/or indenture and abusive colonisation, there will be a major trust challenge as well as a significant capacity challenge.<br />
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All of these point to a way forward based on building trust, capacity and a new tradition of trust and positive relationships in peace towards genuinely sustainable development. Which points to using small projects as a gateway to the big ones, and to the creation of centres of capability based on competence and credible partnerships. Thus, it makes a lot of sense to start moving forward now on a long-term programme of strategic development projects pivoting on creation of <i><b>a strategic change portfolio</b></i> and associated <i><b>programme management office</b></i>.<br />
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Not, that common sense solutions are not going to be fought against by those vested in the continuation of Business as Usual. They will, and these opponents will be helped by those afraid of change.<br />
<br />
This is where a particpatory PEST+BP, SWOT and BAU vs ALT exercise (as has already been discussed) can prove very helpful in changing the balance of stakeholders in play and in changing the general understanding, highlighting the way forward. Or at least, helping us ponder where BAU is headed and what possible alternatives are sufficiently credible to consider; often, <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(a) BAU,<br />
(b) near-BAU minimal change,<br />
(c) moderate (possibly incrementally transformative) change,<br />
(d) radical but feasible, transformative change. </blockquote>
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Too often, this sort of deliberation will involve the difficult challenge of bringing out why -- despite our inclination to prefer the status quo -- we must change now or pay a price of riding a ruinous march- of- folly BAU path over a cliff:<br />
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It is now time to act, not to road-block.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>FOR DISCUSSION: </b><br />
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XXXXX<br />
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<br />GEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-91043386111827759392016-12-06T09:18:00.003-08:002018-12-04T03:43:28.932-08:00PM101 U4: Implementing and Managing a Projectxxx<br />
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XXX<br />
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<b>INTRODUCTION: </b>Even after resources have been promised or even [partially . . . ?] delivered, strategic change projects remain challenging. Not just the grand projects, the small, almost informal ones too, as such are likely to be put on the table in light of high uncertainty and high degrees of disagreement on the way forward -- hence the reminder illustration.<br />
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The pivotal issue for Implementing and Monitoring a project (the focus for this fourth unit in our workshop) thus has to be on sustaining critical mass and making controlled but flexible adaptations in the face of obstacles, natural challenges and uncertainties, as well as active skepticism and even opposition.<br />
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Resemblance to military combat in challenging terrain is not a coincidence: a battle is a project, or more accurately, two projects in contest. That is why we must bear in mind that -- as the German General Moltke the Elder was fond of saying -- <i>"no plan survives first contact with the enemy."</i><br />
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(Plans and their parent organisations, in short, are best understood as carefully developed credible frameworks that give insight and provide resources to move to the goal in a reasonably controlled way in the face of unpredictable challenges. Plans are no substitute for capable, insightful and flexible, sound leadership at all levels. Nor does the impossibility of precisely planning the future in a rigid way excuse the opposite fallacy: refusal to plan on the presumption of genius at improvisation, or overconfidence that one holds the high cards and the high ground.)<br />
<br />
So, in this unit, we begin looking at implementation and management with:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The John Boyd OODA Strategic-Operational-Tactical <br />Decision-Action Framework</b></div>
<br />
John Boyd was a Korean War era Fighter Pilot and strategic thinker whose thought, advocacy and theories revolutionised aerial combat, the acquisition of combat aircraft [e.g. the F16] and military strategy. One of his key contributions is the OODA -- observe, orient, decide, act -- loop, which focuses the challenges of high risk, high potential loss, high uncertainty decision-making:<br />
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Instantly, we see just how challenging leadership of a project in a chaotic or even just a relatively uncertain environment is. For, all four main processes must go on simultaneously in interaction, with the fourteen sub-processes structuring that interaction. Where each implies even more background context and dynamics, in a context where delay may be fatal, and rashness is also exceedingly dangerous.<br />
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Further, we again see the relevance of the ALARP approach backed up by solid contingency planning as part of a good log frame based project plan:<br />
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The direct implication is, that <i>we need good, capable, bold (as opposed to either indecisive or rash), soundly informed, flexible, committed, teamwork-capable, trusted and trustworthy people in key positions for managing each level of the strategic change portfolio of projects and programmes</i>. That already implies the need for idea originators, champions and sponsors backed by Godfathers. Yes, key staffing decisions are pivotal strategy decisions. (And if just one key person walks away in disgust, a whole portfolio can blow up; vicious in-fighting must not be tolerated.)<br />
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It also points to the need for incubator facilities -- right up to the level of the justly famous <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeQ0T4VyeU">Lockheed Skunk Works</a> -- as in, where the Kickapoo Joy Juice gets brewed -- if need be:<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pmeQ0T4VyeU" width="640"></iframe>
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(Kindly, pause and view <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41j0JFNkkm4">this lecture</a> on the history of the original Skunk Works.)<br />
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It is well worth the further pause to ponder Kelly Johnson's fourteen rules and practices for:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>THE SKUNK WORKS PROGRAM RULES & PRACTICES</b></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="text parbase section">
<div class="rteText">
<blockquote>
1. The Skunk
Works manager must be delegated practically complete control of his
program in all aspects. He should report to a division president or
higher.<br />
<br />
2. Strong but small project offices must be provided both by the military and industry.<br />
<br />
3. The number of people having any connection with the project must
be restricted in an almost vicious manner. Use a small number of good
people (10% to 25% compared to the so-called normal systems).<br />
<br />
4. A very simple drawing and drawing release system with great flexibility for making changes must be provided.<br />
<br />
5. There must be a minimum number of reports required, but important work must be recorded thoroughly.<br />
<br />
6. There must be a monthly cost review covering not only what has
been spent and committed but also projected costs to the conclusion of
the program.<br />
<br />
7. The contractor must be delegated and must assume more than normal
responsibility to get good vendor bids for subcontract on the project.
Commercial bid procedures are very often better than military ones.<br />
<br />
8. The inspection system as currently used by the Skunk Works, which
has been approved by both the Air Force and Navy, meets the intent of
existing military requirements and should be used on new projects. Push
more basic inspection responsibility back to subcontractors and vendors.
Don't duplicate so much inspection.<br />
<br />
9. The contractor must be delegated the authority to test his final
product in flight. He can and must test it in the initial stages. If he
doesn't, he rapidly loses his competency to design other vehicles.<br />
<br />
10. The specifications applying to the hardware must be agreed to
well in advance of contracting. The Skunk Works practice of having a
specification section stating clearly which important military
specification items will not knowingly be complied with and reasons
therefore is highly recommended.<br />
<br />
11. Funding a program must be timely so that the contractor doesn't
have to keep running to the bank to support government projects.<br />
<br />
12. There must be mutual trust between the military project
organization and the contractor, the very close cooperation and liaison
on a day-to-day basis. This cuts down misunderstanding and
correspondence to an absolute minimum.<br />
<br />
13. Access by outsiders to the project and its personnel must be strictly controlled by appropriate security measures.<br />
<br />
14. Because only a few people will be used in engineering and most
other areas, ways must be provided to reward good performance by pay not
based on the number of personnel supervised.[<a href="http://lockheedmartin.com/us/aeronautics/skunkworks/14rules.html">HT</a>: Lockheed-Martin, host for the Skunk Works since 1943]</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
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The key elements of successful innovation are clearly embedded in these rules for perhaps the most famous of all long term innovation incubators.<br />
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We will need as well to carefully mark the difference between responsible critics and ruthless idea-implementer hit-men and their destructive rhetorical torpedoes (or, knives ready to be slipped in between the ribs -- BTW the critical danger distance for a knife-man is about 20 feet . . . it's not just at arm's length). <br />
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All of this highlights the pivotal importance of the implementer-oriented log frame. for, this is a one-page, at-a-glance overview of a project's logic, critical success factors & their key indicators, assumptions & risks, ever changing circumstances and challenges that call for prompt contingency responses. Where of course, if it cannot fit into a landscape mode 8 1/2 x 11" letter-size sheet, use 11 x 17" tabloid-size . . . it is that vital to be able to see the overview at a glance:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmfreQNgiyRM36PsXfGbBE3OSlzfsx8BxFN-TnAXrRaGGst9SKUpaJEK6hsXDHEg56I85utwUF3O40yuXyjtt7gcjIIIavHwyOCLL_Oo623rx1LllQVYKGb5b_cppxkEU6vwe8l2jorxB/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUmfreQNgiyRM36PsXfGbBE3OSlzfsx8BxFN-TnAXrRaGGst9SKUpaJEK6hsXDHEg56I85utwUF3O40yuXyjtt7gcjIIIavHwyOCLL_Oo623rx1LllQVYKGb5b_cppxkEU6vwe8l2jorxB/s1600/logframe_implementers.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
In short, the implementer-oriented log frame is a key "dashboard" that indicates the dynamics of a proposed or active project. It serves as a main tool to structure and summarise observations and the orienting analysis behind a plan to guide decision and action.<br />
<br />
I add, a UN-derived explanation of the logic, as extended into <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150323163609/https://undg.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/UNDG-RBM-Handbook-2012.pdf">"Results Based Management"</a> (which seems to be one of the latest wrinkles on log frames and project cycle management thinking):<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_42gCHo4oDyGLeY1GdY6BMZwrJHwW7otfGlIs31nyLsQXFVgqDqYz3jAZy4v1K4PTJChjhrlQOKsVucWrpcSidJtKAK7aCBNGuzzAsutf-BY4lhK1i2bgTPMfsROsmmuxsOyIPO1OWeeq/s1600/RBM-chain-logframe_logic.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="677" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_42gCHo4oDyGLeY1GdY6BMZwrJHwW7otfGlIs31nyLsQXFVgqDqYz3jAZy4v1K4PTJChjhrlQOKsVucWrpcSidJtKAK7aCBNGuzzAsutf-BY4lhK1i2bgTPMfsROsmmuxsOyIPO1OWeeq/s1600/RBM-chain-logframe_logic.gif" /></a></div>
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<br />
Hardly less useful is a similarly structured Gantt timeline chart, especially one that illustrates the work breakdown structure in its activity list and highlights the "now" state of planned vs actual progress (whether at project or programme level), e.g.:<br />
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Notice, here, the use of a now vs achieved "string" joined to "indicator lamp" Red- Amber- Green measures of degree of achievement of <i><b>deliverables</b></i> at milestones. This then helps to guide progress/ gaps analysis and triggering of contingencies.<br />
<br />
(As a refinement, evaluation point -- <i><b>milestone</b></i> -- stars can also be colour coded. And yes, it is implied that rework and contingencies can address inadequate milestone performance so that we can show how well or poorly all major deliverables to date have been achieved. Onward, the MoSCoW type priority rules can be used to adjust what we try to do onward. This includes premature termination and accepting what has been delivered to date as the final result of the project;<i> escalating commitment to a demonstrable failure will only increase the loss, as a rule</i>. That's why milestones have another, more chilling, name: <b><i>kill points</i></b>. [NB: In some happier cases, a project may perform better than expected, delivering relevant results quickly, and can be closed earlier than expected. Some projects can even be extended as new opportunities open up.])<br />
<br />
And yes, all of this and more is involved in the Boyd OODA loop; the management of a project is dominated by responding to contingencies day by day, leading to progress by "tacking upwind" through good teamwork and situationally aware leadership.<br />
<br />
It is helpful -- HT, VicHealth -- to draw out the comparison briefly (and indeed . . . a sailing crew in a race is carrying out a project):<br />
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpB-q3tEH1Um2Do5KP-K17WfzaSpRhKaoKLBrl-DDtObe6WpilrAE_OYawHoNIXs2vbAqaSpAQSIzqQUYTmDowABUu9pqBVhyphenhyphen13ZegJ-9ITbZvRj59idZHYpwt6WUNcV_ghtNBeJDTjnVV/s1600/Tacking_drill.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpB-q3tEH1Um2Do5KP-K17WfzaSpRhKaoKLBrl-DDtObe6WpilrAE_OYawHoNIXs2vbAqaSpAQSIzqQUYTmDowABUu9pqBVhyphenhyphen13ZegJ-9ITbZvRj59idZHYpwt6WUNcV_ghtNBeJDTjnVV/s1600/Tacking_drill.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
A sail-boat cannot sail directly into the wind, there is a "no-sail zone" where the wind will directly oppose sailing and will not generate adequate lifting forces -- yes, a sail is in effect a wing. So, to make progress against a wind, the boat has to be sailed in a zig-zag pattern that requires careful teamwork. Indeed, at a certain point in the tack, the sail may "luff," acting like a drag device (it then wobbles and flutters like a flag in a strong breeze). So, also, we can see three phases: [a] ready, [b] the turn and [c] the acceleration on the new tack. The skipper is responsible to spot good zones to tack, avoiding local pockets of relatively dead air. The crew has to be alert to the need to tack, and must have the drill down pat as the turn necessarily loses speed; if it is not smoothly, correctly and swiftly executed, the boat loses speed and time. <br />
<br />
This instructive example thus illustrates several things concerning project implementation management and teamwork:<br />
<br />
First, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fybW75Kx07A">a video</a> (as seeing live action is much more instructive than simply talking or a still picture):<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fybW75Kx07A" width="640"></iframe>
<br />
Now, some notes that draw out <i><b>principles of project teamwork and day to day leadership</b></i>, based on this instructive example: <br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUnam5VlyU6ZX3B_R6x6uICjBmytsvJscPg5LB3JMyLFmaGlSTJ5P3xCM5FeyckoNO-hsXfclCCjwXSim62-g3LbEa_aQLoVVBF7QARATVSfwB2-yrG1olf6jZfuoSpAg8iRuPbFNxTzoE/s1600/tacking+sailboats.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUnam5VlyU6ZX3B_R6x6uICjBmytsvJscPg5LB3JMyLFmaGlSTJ5P3xCM5FeyckoNO-hsXfclCCjwXSim62-g3LbEa_aQLoVVBF7QARATVSfwB2-yrG1olf6jZfuoSpAg8iRuPbFNxTzoE/s320/tacking+sailboats.jpg" width="198" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tacking</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<ul>
<li>A project needs one or more capable teams, with situationally aware credible leadership -- the OODA challenge.</li>
<li>A project team needs to understand that moving towards goals often faces a challenge to move into a headwind.</li>
<li>Sailing upwind will slow down a boat relative to the best points of sail -- which are more or less across the wind ("reach") for a modern type sailing boat. This is due to the lift-based action of triangle-type sails. However, tacking is often necessary to make progress towards a goal.</li>
<li>This also involves sailing in a zig-zag pattern, towards interim objectives that are not the same as the overall goal but help the team make progress towards that goal.</li>
<li>A very good question for a project team to ask is: <i>what are the "headwind" challenges and forces that -- while apparently opposed to our objectives -- can be used to energise well-judged progress, if we harness them correctly? </i></li>
<li>Likewise: <i>how can we best work as a team to tack upwind in our situation?</i></li>
<li>The team needs to recognise that there are appropriate tools, techniques, tactics and processes that must be carried out at the right time in the right way to make good progress while tacking.</li>
<li>Capability, alertness and credibility of leadership, preparation and effectiveness of the team (which should be drilled together beforehand to be ready for the "race"), co-operation and unity of smooth action are essential to tacking right.</li>
<li>Tacking involves definite steps in the right sequence and each member of the crew plays a significant role, while avoiding blocking others in their own work or getting tangled up in the works. </li>
<li>So, <i>what are the drills that must be practiced and what are the preparations must be made ahead of time, by whom, when, how?</i> (Thinking ahead of the current step.)</li>
<li>Crew members should be alert for emergencies and should be ready to respond to such contingencies on a moment's notice. (E.g., what happens if someone falls overboard or something breaks or goes wrong? [Often, there is no time for confusion, so likely or potentially harmful contingencies must be foreseen and prepared for.]) </li>
<li>If a tacking duel is in progress between competing boats . . . cf. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGxy5Sxzttc">here</a>, high skill is needed and fair contest in accordance with the rules becomes an issue. (Where, there are umpires who can and do impose penalty turns.)</li>
<li>Once the tack is executed, the crew needs to be alert to the next action that may be called for, e.g. the next tack.</li>
</ul>
In short, just by pondering an instructive example, we can learn many insights on how to move ahead with projects in general. (It may be a useful preparatory drill for a new project team to study this example and use it to compare to the project in hand. [This is a case of learning and capacity-building by inductive example.])<br />
<br />
This allows us to bridge to looking at:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Project team-work, work breakdowns/packages and timelines</b></div>
<br />
Projects typically require teamwork, to tackle an array of tasks that are linked by the process logic of the project. These must be tackled across time, and cumulatively lead to achieving the project's objectives. That's why log frames, work breakdown structures and timeline charts are so important and helpful in planning, carrying out and managing a project, e.g.:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicsX8S0Gu_S9lQMH-Z3PyaQEuvCJWnt9w6202fygFIPbpzf1GBHbqtNZVFRrOitA7gQXZxpDPmeWjDLcCCt-Kunk3E0WTYMKZQAKTb6A8t2yFjKZRx23RBKhoUycpYdMzBrOTs34fjpnGR/s1600/pm_wbs_t_cost.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicsX8S0Gu_S9lQMH-Z3PyaQEuvCJWnt9w6202fygFIPbpzf1GBHbqtNZVFRrOitA7gQXZxpDPmeWjDLcCCt-Kunk3E0WTYMKZQAKTb6A8t2yFjKZRx23RBKhoUycpYdMzBrOTs34fjpnGR/s1600/pm_wbs_t_cost.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Work naturally breaks down in a pyramid pattern, all the way down to work packages for individuals and groups, as we can see from our house-building example:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKsCCn9ERpLxM-UwgswtU0xjwMxhQtCI8f0sWHq-6MPSXGbf1lkFJOOw1oMk6Vqw0kxCSZb6DbLJ1gvA-xkeszw9ip1uGi6qJpRumQf1nQ4dtQkiLYvvEUcpn2vu-7-TIPunNB34O-h3Qs/s1600/wbs-sample.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKsCCn9ERpLxM-UwgswtU0xjwMxhQtCI8f0sWHq-6MPSXGbf1lkFJOOw1oMk6Vqw0kxCSZb6DbLJ1gvA-xkeszw9ip1uGi6qJpRumQf1nQ4dtQkiLYvvEUcpn2vu-7-TIPunNB34O-h3Qs/s1600/wbs-sample.png" /></a></div>
<br />
Preliminary forms of these planning charts should be a part of the project concept note and the more formal proposal/ business/ strategic change case; not least, because of their at-a-glance, one page format. When a project is approved and resourced, the project charter that states approval, organises and launches the project, also granting powers to key officers, should include the proposal, charts and other key documentation as technical appendices. Then, a standard reporting schedule should require a developed version as part of the inception report. Interim variations should be tracked, and these main charts as updated should be part of the regular milestone "progress/ gaps/ follow-up"interim reports. As a part of the evaluation and project closing, they should be specifically discussed.<br />
<br />
For simple projects, a phased, planned vs actual income and spend budget tracking sheet is also helpful at milestones. Perhaps:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRQwYDaHd03YswS8U0HT58eCFZuxcHEnptrsCfwvfsUdp-_uLjz370YqB70ZBMgdEQaNEPYbewXLYr_IPpzp4imW59yYyD4zg1QaU6OQaYrPef3MG08x8xbaW6kgFzsv2FT4R8wEwVIvbC/s1600/phased_budget.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRQwYDaHd03YswS8U0HT58eCFZuxcHEnptrsCfwvfsUdp-_uLjz370YqB70ZBMgdEQaNEPYbewXLYr_IPpzp4imW59yYyD4zg1QaU6OQaYrPef3MG08x8xbaW6kgFzsv2FT4R8wEwVIvbC/s1600/phased_budget.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
A key insight for all such efforts is that <i>activities require input resources, which are limited and should not face surges beyond availability per unit of project timeline</i>. Accordingly, there is often a trade-off between time and resource use (including costs), and of course this also trades off against time and contingencies that go sour. We are back at the iron triangle three-way trade-off: scope of deliverables, costs, time; constrained further by the necessity of adequate quality.<br />
<br />
Such quality- of- a- project (and/or of its deliverable results) typically involves various factors:<br />
<ul>
<li>fitness for purpose: <i>assured</i> adequate scope, balance and level of features, ease of use & <a href="http://www.ergonomics.com.au/what-is-ergonomics/">ergonomics</a>, durability, aesthetics and capabilities or benefits </li>
<li>reliability [= it will consistently be there to do the job when needed], tied to ease of maintenance support</li>
<li>credibility of product and provider (often, brand strength -- think: Mercedes Benz vs. anybody else for vehicles)</li>
<li>state of the art for a given technology</li>
<li>credible progress of the state of the art (including, through the project!) </li>
<li>effectiveness and efficiency: doing the right things and doing them without excess waste of resources</li>
<li>economy -- giving "good value for money" relative to alternatives</li>
<li>affordability . . . arranging how to own or lease it to good market advantage</li>
<li>ready accessibility: products (goods, services, ideas, etc) are available conveniently when and where desired without undue delay or difficulty of finding it</li>
<li>safety and manageable risks in development, production/operations and use</li>
<li>duties of care and legal risks (how will you defend X in court?)</li>
<li>being ethically responsible (informed by <u>sound</u> principles/ values)</li>
<li>timeliness in delivery or getting to commissioning</li>
<li>etc. </li>
</ul>
Such quality is so important that in aggregate it defines performance; and, quality assurance is thus a key aspect of project management. Defining a balanced, duly weighted adequate quality of performance across these factors is also a key part of project planning and of consultation with stakeholders (especially sponsors and users or beneficiaries and/or those who suffer adverse impacts . . . "dis-benefits").<br />
<br />
This then leads to the significance of the trading off of performance against timelines -- and deadlines -- as contingencies arise. Where, the Pareto principle often applies; in a simple form, the 80/20 rule . . . 80% of effect comes from a key 20% of input, so there may be a performance-time cushion if that last 20% of effect can reasonably be given lower priorities. That's why implementers, sponsors and users have to negotiate and continually re-negotiate under the MoSCoW rules for a given project:<br />
<dl><dd><u>M</u>UST have this requirement to meet the business needs.</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>S</u>HOULD have this requirement if at all possible, </dd><dd>(but the project success does not rely on this).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>CO</u>ULD have this requirement </dd><dd>(if it does not affect the fitness of business needs of the project).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>W</u>ON'T represents a requirement that stakeholders have postponed </dd><dd>(due to the timeliness requirement)</dd></dl>
As implementers tack upwind and face contingencies, as a rule some things that would be nice to have are going to have to be trimmed. This already points to the issue that for any reasonably complicated project, there is a major administrative headache to track, document and communicate adjustments. Jennifer Whitt of Project Management Videos <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3QZ0a5PbcE&list=PLF1064CD7B0A98261">presents</a> the paper vs computer trade-off here:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/x3QZ0a5PbcE?list=PLF1064CD7B0A98261" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />
Thankfully, we are discussing "simple" projects, for which a DAILY diary/journal of actions, notes and changes may be enough. And don't overlook using a tablet or smart phone to snapshot a sheet on a desk or a wall-sized chart or whiteboard or even do a short video summary presentation; as Ms Whitt demonstrates. Self-documentation helps. Multimedia projectors . . . and now big screen TV's . . . used as monitors and teleconference screens also help with communication. Bigger projects need dedicated staff for administration and communication. Specialised project management software is important also. In addition to the well known products, for simple projects or personal use consider things like <a href="http://www.projectlibre.com/">ProjectLibre</a>, an open source package.<br />
<br />
A very good example of the sort of log or journal in view is provided by Admiral Grace Hopper, when she identified the famous case of the actual bug -- duly taped to the paper -- in one of the first digital computers, then under development:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5mQlszos5h5tWqNW8aaenajUwMIQPoNBSREPEF3XCLPDxcGHIjzIT_jFvp08dR6dzn_akhtCiHZLKjowf36JS1Lz3VR2mcpw3WIKoSirurNApSfQrc1hHQEj7I4r8RNndmArxM9VcHSgp/s1600/the_bug.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5mQlszos5h5tWqNW8aaenajUwMIQPoNBSREPEF3XCLPDxcGHIjzIT_jFvp08dR6dzn_akhtCiHZLKjowf36JS1Lz3VR2mcpw3WIKoSirurNApSfQrc1hHQEj7I4r8RNndmArxM9VcHSgp/s1600/the_bug.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
All of this is practically quite useful.<br />
<br />
But, the really tricky issues arise when critical success factor assumptions break and must-haves begin to give trouble. Painful choices may have to be made at that point; up to possibly the premature closing of the project.<br />
<br />
This brings up: <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Dealing with troubled, dragging or blocked projects</b></div>
<br />
Projects can and do fail or go astray or slow down or even stop at any phase of the life cycle. The log frame view of this is, such generally reflects a breakdown or absence of critical success factors, particularly critical mass of support. Often, this manifests in a shift to fears that technology will not come through and/or renewed controversy about required performance/quality. <br />
<br />
In short, <span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"><i>if a project stalls or stumbles or begins to wander into chaos, look for unmet critical success factors, especially at <b>bottleneck points</b> where the process flow hits a key node that constrains the overall process</i></span>.<br />
<br />
Where, it is a longstanding view that there is usually <i><b>a critical, low slack path</b></i> in a project that drives its overall duration. If this path is being delayed, it should be <i><b>"crashed"</b></i> by injecting additional or rushed -- and typically more costly -- resources to bring it back on schedule. Unfortunately, sometimes this is counter-productive as new people have to be brought up to speed, distracting the present team and actually reducing directly productive effort. This tends to happen where the product is non-routine and crashing may actually make the delays worse. <br />
<br />
A more recent approach based on Goldratt's <a href="http://www.leanproduction.com/theory-of-constraints.html"><i><b>Theory of Constraints</b></i></a> looks at this sort of path in terms of it being tied to not just time but availability of key resources. A useful <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Xf-waj23P8">video overview</a> is:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Xf-waj23P8" width="640"></iframe> <br />
<br />
This approach builds on the classical critical path view; which uses activity durations that will normally be estimated and negotiated on "being safe." Psychologically, if an activity finishes early, remaining slack will be used up to "gold plate" the deliverables; much more likely distractions, other deadlines, juggling multiple tasks and last minute urgent rushes will lead to eating up the buffer and looking for more time. The predictable result is delayed projects.<br />
<br />
So, the <i><b>critical chain</b></i> approach revises this to get more realistic scheduling. First, <i>by exerting an informed judgement as to the implicit buffers then squeezing durations [often to 50 - 80% of estimated time -- the "most likely/reasonable" time], then <u>a chain buffer</u> <b>(= project buffer)</b> is created</i>. The work package leader for each successive task in the chain is then given <i><b>a top priority token (= "baton")</b></i> to enable a speed-up if required. <i>The percent of chain-task completed vs percent of remaining chain buffer then allows managing the critical chain</i>. MosSCoW priority rules or the like will allow for balancing adequacy of quality, scope/level of features and keeping to time. Also, <i><b>feeder chains</b></i> require end-of-chain buffers . . . lest they become the new critical path; and, <i><b>key resources</b></i> will require "early arrival" buffers . . . lest they block the start-times for critical chain activities, eating up the project buffer. (And yes, I know that <a href="http://staging.astadev.com/wp-content/uploads/PDF/Critical-Chain-and-Buffer-Management.pdf">timeline charts with such elaborations</a> may well require significant capability-building effort if implementers, managers and decision-makers are to use them appropriately. A buffer driven by the uncertainties of real-world work is not a reflection of laziness, incompetence or waste. If this becomes a problem, it may be advisable to revert to PERT/CPM style precedence network charts with three point duration estimates. Hopefully all of this will not be needed for "simple" projects. But then proverbially, <i>"nothing is as simple as it at first seems to be."</i>)<br />
<br />
As MS Project is a common PM Application, the Office advice page on using it with Critical Chain approaches, <a href="https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Use-schedule-buffers-to-manage-change-428268b7-51b2-4953-a44d-831ab0b9bb8b">here</a>, may be of some help. Illustration (with some remarks on Beta Distributions and PERT approximations):<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmF9ZEnKpKKW4wXquLWcGRPV_RwnF-tMpakg8oGxuuwQU5G4qvxzwBlzVgPBoz2eJoSkH17xTJ89pT6YzAOIVuvleg6OgYR2oCBD5LGmYo2djDPY3u3DbbaHO8JPpuXUwfAcF_NFw0mUMW/s1600/infogr_ms-proj_buffer.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmF9ZEnKpKKW4wXquLWcGRPV_RwnF-tMpakg8oGxuuwQU5G4qvxzwBlzVgPBoz2eJoSkH17xTJ89pT6YzAOIVuvleg6OgYR2oCBD5LGmYo2djDPY3u3DbbaHO8JPpuXUwfAcF_NFw0mUMW/s1600/infogr_ms-proj_buffer.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The timeline for the critical chain may typically be estimated from: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
sum of "median" activity durations<br />
<br />
+ 1/2* x sum of activity buffers </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(*i.e. it assumes some go over, some under)</blockquote>
<br />
+ 1/2* x sum of key resource buffers.</blockquote>
<br />
That resulting timeline is then the <i>estimated</i> project duration.<br />
<br />
As the project proceeds, management can then focus on percent completion of tasks vs. percent of buffer remaining. <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(NB -- if you are interested: Cf. UMT lecture <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAVVJltYdNU">here</a>. [Review paper is <a href="https://www.pomsmeetings.org/ConfProceedings/011/FullPapers/011-0754.pdf">here</a>. Six Sigma discusses the beta distribution and three-point estimation <a href="https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/project-management/better-project-management-through-beta-distribution/">here</a>: early, likely and late finish. The underlying beta statistical distribution -- capable of modelling "bells", U's, J's and reverse J's -- is helpfully discussed in <a href="http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2613&context=etd">this thesis</a>.] I suggest that a "lite" step for managing simple projects would be to put a bloc in Gantt timeline charts for explicitly scheduling availability of key resources and for showing how that availability issue constrains activities/timelines. Buffers are of course contingency plans, and if that is needed can be pointed out in the relevant log frames.)</blockquote>
<br />
How do we <u>know</u> that critical constraints exist? Apart from common observations, we can apply an insight from physics: F = m*a so a = F/m. If mass did not constrain the effect of force [ m --> 0], everything would accelerate instantly to any arbitrary speed. That does not happen, so <i>the issue is to find the key constraint and to work with it to get better effectiveness and efficiency, economically and ethically</i>. For instance, in a sailing race upwind leg, the dead zone in which the wind will not provide motive power is a key constraint and the art of tacking is the key strategy to work with it.<br />
<br />
This latter approach has often had impressive impact on performance, and is reflected in the strong trend of moving IT projects to Agile methods. The idea of bringing together a "scrum" of people to concentrate effort during a definite timebox to keep up delivery and quality assurance of adequate performance then passing to the next cycle in succession clearly reflects critical chain thinking.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aawWfl2n-Pg">A 2011 lecture</a> by the late <a href="https://www.toc-goldratt.com/en/biography-of-eli-goldratt">Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt</a>, gives food for thought:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aawWfl2n-Pg" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
All of this refocusses the 3-4-5 governance factors for the host programme and the project:<br />
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<br />
As we look at the outer box, we can see that as a project moves through its life cycle:<br />
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. . . we are able to update our understanding of trends and shocks, leading to a clearer SWOT-picture. This then raises the question as to whether the current project track is robust and sufficiently advantageous over business as usual to justify continued effort, expense and investment.<br />
<br />
Or, in more positive and specific terms, we may ponder:<br />
<ul>
<li> how can the project become better value for money and a better risk management prospect? </li>
<li>What are the pros and cons of the project alternative vs those of business as usual?</li>
<li>How does the project fit in/ conflict with/ transform vision, mission, values, goals and strategies?</li>
<li>Should we go there, why or why not?</li>
<li>What is happening with critical success factors, underlying assumptions and contingencies?</li>
<li>What is happening with the iron triangle factors?</li>
<li>Is the overall delivered result likely to be fit for purpose and provide good value for money, affordably -- why or why not? </li>
<li>Is there a credible way to tackle bottlenecks? </li>
<li>Is this project still supported by an adequate critical mass coalition: idea sources and champions [with viable implementing teams . . . ], sponsors [often, Project Sponsors], Godfathers [often, "Owners"]?</li>
<li>What is the trend of that support?</li>
<li>Why?</li>
<li>Can the trend be made more favourable? </li>
<li>What is happening with communication?</li>
<li>Where are the responsible critics? The hit-men?</li>
<li>Do we have <i><b>project marshals</b></i> capable of handling the hit-men? </li>
<li>Do they have adequate "ammunition" and "artillery"?</li>
<li>Is there enough organisation or community political capital to keep going?</li>
<li>What are the risks of abandonment or refusal to pick up and run with this project?</li>
</ul>
In the case of aid agencies and programmes, it is perhaps necessary to take a means-ends look at portfolio of initiatives vs. reasonable goals:<br />
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<br />
Beyond a certain point, if there are but few initiatives or there are but few that have or could have significant impact on long term development goals, something is in need of fairly drastic reform. For, this means there is a major capacity bottleneck that is blocked or severely constricted. Nor, is it good enough to point to lack of capacity on the part of the aided community: <i>such lack of capacity is <u>why</u> aid is needed in the first place.</i><br />
<br />
The issue is how to address that bottleneck.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Fixing the Capacity Bottleneck</b></div>
<br />
Capacity (or rather, its lack) seems to be a key constraint.<br />
<br />
Capacity can be understood as ability to take sound decisions in good time and carry forward their implementation without undue delay or risks. It exists in individuals, in organisations and in communities.<br />
<br />
Individuals need skills, knowledge, character, initiative and networks of support. Organisations need to foster positive synergy so that the overall effect is greater than the sum of the individual parts because strengths complement and multiply one another harmoniously; creating centres of excellence. Communities in turn can harness another level of social capital, as clusters of centres of excellence and those emerging or established as community level leaders create a critical mass for growth, prosperity, development and general welfare as well as ever improving quality of life. In particular, as ability make good decisions and to make them stick through to effective implementation is a key underlying concern, quality of governance is also deeply involved.<br />
<br />
This points to the FAO summary of community-level governance and environment dynamics . . . including the implied role of the media as a vital feedback system that may well shape the community's agenda:<br />
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<br />
<br />
When key elements of required capacity lacking or are not fit for reasonable purpose (or are acting abusively or incompetently or in accord with unsound agendas . . . ), it constrains progress and may trigger down-spirals into stagnation, chaos and despair.<br />
<br />
There needs to be a steady stream of capable individuals, which points to the critical role of education and linked health and social welfare systems. Also, there is need for sound career paths and professional development in organisations and the community at large.<br />
<br />
Organisations must avoid the situation where envy, selfish ambition, polarisation and greed promote a silo mentality of piling up power and resources in rival mini-kingdoms that are at best in a cold war of mutual mistrust. Similarly, accounting systems and financial controls must curb corruption and waste.<br />
<br />
The community needs to move to harmony and a common achievable vision.<br />
<br />
In the Caribbean region of post-slavery, more or less post colonial societies riddled with a history of institutionalised racism and the legacy of the cynical policy: divide and rule, that is hard to achieve. One step is that centres of excellence can host strategic programmes of transformation, providing they have good and stable leadership. Once such are in place, capacity can be built as part of the process of building a sustained effort. Establishment of proper programme based project cycle management then enables undertaking of projects that have good prospects.<br />
<br />
Then, gradually, a portfolio of initiatives to effect strategic change and ultimate transformation can be undertaken.<br />
<br />
And so, cumulatively -- sometimes imperceptibly -- transformation can be fostered.<br />
<br />
So, we must again face the challenge of change:<br />
<br />
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<br />
<b> FOR DISCUSSION:</b> Abcdiary<br />
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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx GEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-65524207944709086892016-12-06T09:17:00.001-08:002017-01-02T03:42:21.110-08:00PM101 U5: Completion, Evaluation & Lessons Learnedxxxxxxxxxxxxx<br />
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<b>INTRODUCTION:</b> By definition -- and thus by their inherently temporary nature -- all projects must come to an end. So, whether they achieve their goals ("normal" ending) or if they do not (suffering early closure), there are appropriate steps of termination and evaluation that should be taken at project end; to render due account <u>and</u> to draw lessons that help us to build capacity. And yes, I freely confess that this workshop has focussed on programme-based project cycle management with an eye for sustainability and for capacity building.<br />
<br />
This unit will address these aspects of project management and key lessons to be drawn.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>All projects must come to an end</b></div>
<br />
That's a truism by definition, <u>almost</u> trite.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAS3p6jHHdt50nEzFvb6UMXu_uA8eWnpnZ-G_GuZsiIveSLrtdLAZr5qWoYvHhxZof9vu1h-eDbbAZsBFWUpwpmZYndrCAjnHw-vylyZJDxEzr9VQnJVFZfjRoR8JvHNEx0Eywu-7qUVJg/s1600/jawz.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAS3p6jHHdt50nEzFvb6UMXu_uA8eWnpnZ-G_GuZsiIveSLrtdLAZr5qWoYvHhxZof9vu1h-eDbbAZsBFWUpwpmZYndrCAjnHw-vylyZJDxEzr9VQnJVFZfjRoR8JvHNEx0Eywu-7qUVJg/s200/jawz.gif" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jaws -- the famous movie poster</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The deeper truth -- too often, the hungry Great White -- that lurks, lies in the answers to: <i>when, why, how?</i><br />
<br />
Did the project succeed?<br />
<br />
Did it fail in part or on the whole, after fair trial?<br />
<br />
Did it die prematurely of congenital defects?<br />
<br />
Did it eat up its resources fruitlessly?<br />
<br />
Did someone kill its budget? (Why?) <br />
<br />
Did it fall off the cliff through a mini march of folly?<br />
<br />
Did it fall into hopeless quarrels and confusions, ending in a messy "divorce"? <br />
<br />
Was it pushed off the cliff by its enemies -- including those that pretended to be friends? (As in, <i>who is floating away under a golden parachute -- leaving others to their fate? </i>[Who is it that has the reputation of a cat -- always able to land on his/her feet by hook or by crook?]<i> </i>)<br />
<br />
Did the critical mass coalition the project needed dry up? Did a critical implementer, champion, sponsor or Godfather walk away? (Why?)<br />
<br />
Or, what?<br />
<br />
Why? (Always, <u>why</u> -- and, <u>how</u>?)<br />
<br />
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The answers to these questions and the like will tell us much about the project, its environment, the degree of uncertainty and conflict at work, as well as about the actors (with their diverse motives, means and opportunities) at work.<br />
<br />
And, such questions need to be pondered from the outset of a project, as: <i>projects are temporary but careers for good or ill must go on -- and there is a taint that accompanies being part of a real, perceived or engineered failure.</i><br />
<br />
If a suggested project is widely seen as likely to fail -- regardless of its actual merits, it may not be able to attract adequate support to get it moving or keep it moving upwind through tacking towards its goals.<br />
<br />
Thus, some project failures are self-fulfilling prophecies -- those who believe act in ways that make their beliefs come true; never mind that the project in question may well have been a viable alternative to a patent march of folly:<br />
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<br />
Proverbially, <i>"if it succeed, none dare call it <u>treason</u>."</i><br />
<br />
That is, in a sufficiently polarised situation dominated by ruthless, manipulative, vindictive power brokers, the very relevance of the above questions will strongly tend to suppress them into being whispers in a safe corner.<br />
<br />
The decapitated head of a Cudjoe hanging from the Cotton Tree by the main road to the North (and menacingly near to the execution grounds . . . ) is usually enough of a warning to anyone else who would get "notions" of a better way or make the fatal error of expecting justice or soundness. Likewise, if you hang "Tom" publicly -- and however "justified" you may think this is (whatever he may have done) -- only to see his wife and children rush over the cliff's edge in despair, that is a message about the community's failure and need to reach out with compassion and mercy, too.<br />
<br />
We are back to Lemmings and Cliffs.<br />
<br />
And yes, Lemmings don't normally act like that -- Disney apparently pushed them over the cliff; but as for bureaucrats, managers, agit-prop manipulators and politicians . . . :<br />
<br />
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It is precisely to counter that problem that we began this workshop by advocating for broad-based, empowering stakeholder consultations and for setting up governance systems that will foster transparency, accountability and responsibility. But that will not always prevail and it is vital for us to know the truth of how a project ended, if its end was an unhappy one.<br />
<br />
Learning lessons to build capacity and to do better through sound and fair evaluation joined to quality assurance through financial and performance audit is after all a key part of the project life cycle:<br />
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<br />
<br />
Of course, in enough cases to matter, projects are successful.<br />
<br />
(If there is no chance of success, there is no justification for the project.) <br />
<br />
Why and how a success came to be is also quite important to learn from.<br />
<br />
So, let us turn to:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The successful project</b></div>
<br />
Happily, some projects are successful. (And while many others are not 100% successes, they have done enough good to earn their keep.)<br />
<br />
The successful project has much to teach us, and we need to learn the lessons of the hows and whys of success. Likewise, the key valuable players need to be earmarked for onward initiatives. Good work and good initiative should be recognised and rewarded.<br />
<br />
(And unjustly punishing or tainting the reputations of those who do the right thing and commit the crime of succeeding at it in the teeth of the wishes of powerful interests is a sure road to organisational ruin.)<br />
<br />
How can we best learn the lessons of success?<br />
<br />
Let us list some ways:<br />
<ul>
<li>keep a good project log and keep personal diaries</li>
<li>document the life cycle of the project, day by day [it helps to use self-documenting processes as much as possible]</li>
<li>the initial, exploratory phases should be documented, through concept notes, proposals, feasibility evaluation reports, etc.</li>
<li>good meeting minutes, meeting summaries and the like help</li>
<li>financial records and bookkeeping must be in order</li>
<li>development of the project timeline must be recorded, so we can track projected vs actual timeline performance (and spot what are good predictors) </li>
<li>project documentation should be properly and securely kept under control of a project secretary, part of the executive</li>
<li>inception, interim and completion reports are pivotal, and should make good use of documentation developed day by day</li>
<li>quality assurance should be part of the day to day life of the project</li>
<li>there needs to be a post project audit on financial, technical, managerial and strategic performance</li>
<li>such an audit should emphasise lessons learned, but should not shy away from dealing with errors, gaps and evidence of misbehaviour</li>
<li>the covering programme needs to draw capacity-building lessons</li>
<li>and so forth</li>
</ul>
The principles at work should be obvious: accurate, day by day records and regular reports are key to keeping a project on track.<br />
<br />
There is, however, a lurking problem: strategic over-stretch or "victory disease." That is, when a victory is "easily" won, there is a temptation to overconfidently keep going beyond what can be sustained. Down that road, predictably, lies disaster.<br />
<br />
There is wisdom in knowing where to stop, and when to make a good and fair peace from strength as a good winner.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The partially successful project</b></div>
<br />
A great many projects have points of success and other points where things have not gone so swimmingly.<br />
<br />
The critical judgement, here, is the match between successes and the needs of the organisation, in light of the now rather familiar MoSCoW priority list:<br />
<dl><dd><u>M</u>UST have this requirement to meet the business needs.</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>S</u>HOULD have this requirement if at all possible, </dd><dd>(but the project success does not rely on this).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>CO</u>ULD have this requirement </dd><dd>(if it does not affect the fitness of business needs of the project).</dd><dd><br /></dd><dd><u>W</u>ON'T represents a requirement that stakeholders have postponed </dd><dd>(due to the timeliness requirement)</dd></dl>
Has the project met the must-haves? If so, cutting losses and postponing attempts at things that are nice to have but not vital, may well be a good idea. Perhaps, another time we can follow up on the points that did not work out so well, and the best strategy is to draw lessons on why further success was blocked, to guide building up capacity for later.<br />
<br />
In some cases, however, the problem is a failure-point on what is credibly a must-have.<br />
<br />
Diagnosis of why things failed at that point (or worse, those points) may be instructive. In particular, perhaps there was a decision to do in-house what was in the end beyond capacity. If so, can something be bought or could bringing in fresh blood make a key difference?<br />
<br />
If so, consider making the investment.<br />
<br />
If that is not possible or if that too fails, then this suggests a state of the art problem or a seriously flawed innovation climate. In either case, the business strategy and capabilities need to be revised and upgraded to better fit the environment.<br />
<br />
Otherwise, the business or organisation may well fail.<br />
<br />
If that is on the cards, a serious revision may be necessary.<br />
<br />
If that is unlikely to succeed, it may well be time to cut losses and wind up gracefully then head for the exits, before things collapse uncontrollably. Draw lessons for the future and go.<br />
<br />
In short, a partial failure on a critical success factor can kill a business or organisation.<br />
<br />
A project that reaches such a point has become a case of: <br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The troubled project</b></div>
<br />
The troubled project is an extension of the case of partial success. Early promise is not paying off, and the question now on the table is whether the project is strategically pivotal and/or potentially of such value for money that it is worth taking the risk to try to go on.<br />
<br />
It is generally not wise to <i>"throw good money after bad,"</i> and in this situation, those who proposed, championed, implemented and sponsored the project are clearly batting on the back-foot in the face of aggressive bowling.<br />
<br />
This is a classic point for a Godfather to step in with a well-judged intervention.<br />
<br />
Accurate and fair evaluation is even more necessary now than for projects that have obviously done well.<br />
<br />
Not only because there is a temptation to walk away from a genuine opportunity, but also because loyalty is a two-way street. Organisations and communities that build a reputation for knifing people in the back, or for picking, pouncing on and crucifying scapegoats will drive away the kind of good, loyal-hearted, dedicated and brave people it takes to create new things and to stand firm in the face of grave peril.<br />
<br />
Long run, such will fail because there will be no one willing to fight for them with the heart of a lion in the face of <i>"fearful odds."</i><br />
<br />
Perhaps, it may be necessary to reframe a project and put it into the exploratory category. Such a project's goal is to see what is there, what is possible, what is a promising opportunity, what is a sobering danger. To find this out is important, and valuable. A different kind of success.<br />
<br />
Another approach, again, is to shift to "buy" rather than "make."<br />
<br />
That is, perhaps the project can be turned into an acquisition project, having done internal explorations that allow understanding of opportunities and threats, as well as strengths and weaknesses. From this viewpoint, perhaps an invitation to bid can be issued, and from the contest a winning bid can carry forward. Sometimes, no one bid wins and there may need to be a blending of bids to form a composite framework for moving forward. Then, a turnaround may well save the day.<br />
<br />
All of this assumes that the point of trouble is in the must-haves category.<br />
<br />
(If something is not vital, and good progress is not to be had cost effectively, it is time to cut losses.) <br />
<br />
However, if after reasonable trial has failed for something that is credibly vital, there are stark choices: refactor the organisation to live without what cannot be had [and build capacity for another day], or if that is not feasible, it may be time to wind things up and head for the exits in a controlled way.<br />
<br />
Yes, a failed critical project can kill a business.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The project that was "nipped in the bud"</b></div>
<br />
There is yet another case: a project may not be in trouble because of its inherent problems. Its enemies may be trying to kill it because they see its potential success as a threat.<br />
<br />
This, again, usually calls for Godfather-level intervention, and may require mobilising project marshals to go after the destructive hit-men to counter them and -- in cases that are extreme -- investigate and discipline them. For safety, such a serious move as an investigation should be led by a special oversight committee involving a champion, a responsible critic and a qualified human resources counsellor or auditor. In cases where there is probable cause, the auditor should lead and the other members should be expediters of what is now an audit process.<br />
<br />
We are now in very serious territory, so: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #fce5cd;"><span style="color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"><span style="color: red;"><b><u>WARNING</u>:</b></span> When strong actions with potentially serious consequences are being contemplated (much less carried out) appropriate -- and confidential -- legal, auditing, human resources etc advice MUST be consulted, as well as relevant law, regulations and guidelines. For instance, the law of tort and that of defamation may be highly relevant. In cases where Parliamentary privileges and immunities are abused to shield attackers, the law, practices and precedents of parliament may need to be consulted. If fraud, theft, embezzlement etc are indicated, the police may need to be called in. It should be noted that desperate or despairing people can resort to violence against others, or themselves (suicide), so security services and counsellors may both be necessary; especially if a dismissal has to be by "changing the locks" and/or "changing access codes" and/or stopping the dismissed party from entering the premises or building . . . yes, that happens, especially with those who have access to highly secure facilities and/or computer systems and networks. And, more: seek sound professional, legal and ethical advice before taking drastic actions</span>.</span></span></blockquote>
<br />
Now, <i>destructive <b>idea and implementer hit-men</b> are seldom lone wolf operators acting out of some sick psychology</i>.<br />
<br />
As a rule, instead,<i> they are there on implicit or explicit contract, sent or invited by <b>backers</b></i>. Backers who may wish to target individuals or may think they can get their way in decision-making circles (or with the public) by ruthlessly discrediting and killing off alternatives they do not like. But, when a project is in fact credibly addressing vital strategic necessities after fair examination of alternatives, it is there because it was seen as the best option. So, playing agit-prop character assassination games and/or harassing, abusing and oppressing employees and/or gaming the system to make something good unjustifiably seem to be a failure -- as opposed to being <i><b>responsible, fair minded critics</b></i> -- is in reality a betrayal. A betrayal of their duty of care to neighbours (and to the families of those neighbours), of duty to the organisation, to truth and fairness, perhaps even of duty to the community or nation.<br />
<br />
In defence of vital strategic interests, therefore, <i>one needs to identify, expose, correct and discipline hit-men, then capture enough evidence to uncover the backers</i>. Perhaps, one or more of the exposed hit-men will be willing to talk; but likely there will be a code of silence backed by credible threats of retaliation. In that case, perhaps the offer of witness protection and a fresh start elsewhere -- common in real world Mafia cases -- may open some mouths. Though, such witnesses are inherently of low credibility (and one is doubtless going after a highly positioned target) so their testimony cannot stand on its own. Thus, whether they are silent or willing to talk, corroborating evidence should be sought, that pins down the circumstances tightly enough that serious, responsible action can be taken.<br />
<br />
It needs to be understood that betrayal of a critical strategic initiative on a vital point, is a betrayal of the organisation, its staff, families and perhaps the wider community. Severe disciplinary action is therefore warranted, and the yardstick for such is the old Hebraic standard of justice:<i> those who willfully sought -- or carried out -- an ill fate for others <u>merit</u> the same fate</i>.<br />
<br />
And, there must be sufficient likelihood of exposure and sufficient severity of consequences that highly Machiavellian manipulators -- who are almost always present in an organisation of any significant size (e.g. Judas sat among the twelve) -- will be curbed. Mercy is one thing, merely saying an ineffectual <i>"nay my sons,"</i> while allowing evils to grow unchecked is another. It is a principle of good governance, that<i> there must be highly credible and deterring consequences for evil behaviour that are sufficiently likely to happen and that are sufficiently severe, to deter and check the calculating evil-doer.</i><br />
<br />
Yes, <i><b>dirty, destructive office politics</b></i> -- starting with betrayal- by- spy- and- report, gossip and slander tactics -- can have serious consequences for organisations and communities that tolerate such.<br />
<br />
(Where, yes, this is utterly distinct from and not to be confused with ethical <i><b>whistle-blowing</b></i>, disclosure in the manifest public interest to a responsible party who can and is duty-bound to act: a species of responsible criticism in a situation where normal superiors are deaf to reason. [This is why I believe that Auditors should have explicitly acknowledged <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ombudsman"><i><b>Ombudsman powers</b></i></a>.] But of course, if the evil prevail in an organisation, they will want to use the rules for dealing with misbehaviour to retaliate against and taint whistleblowers. That is one reason that<i> any resignation or withdrawal by a key person involved with a strategic project should be followed up by the auditors, preferably at once</i>. Especially, if it is manifestly a resignation in protest, whether open protest or veiled as withdrawal for whatever socially acceptable reasons. It is a very bad sign for an organisation when such resignations are not taken seriously. Suicides -- and yes, they can happen -- are an even more dangerous sign.)<br />
<br />
So far, we have looked at projects "nipped" while already underway.<br />
<br />
Sometimes, vital projects are unjustifiably killed at an even earlier stage by those whose agendas are threatened.<br />
<br />
That is a very grave sign indeed for an organisation, and that is one reason why it is so important to place a portfolio of strategic change projects in the hands of a programme unit. For, then, programme audits and/or project audits can turn up case of good projects unjustifiably nipped in the bud.<br />
<br />
Also, we here see the vital importance of creating, documenting and implementing a proper and objective<i><b> project cycle management process</b></i> at programme level. As, this makes it much harder for good projects to be "nipped" by threatened interests.<br />
<br />
Strategic change projects are a serious business for an organisation that intends to be here for the long haul, and so the creation and implementation of a strategic change programme is a major test of the quality of governance in an organisation. With, "nipping" good projects a key test of the quality of such governance.<br />
<br />
This sobering thought brings us to:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The bottom-line:</b></div>
<br />
<br />
Let us again highlight the strategic change portfolio test -- putting on the auditor's green eye-shades for a moment:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8UOhK8EEIq-EO9GsAu_pWmmuiCmWb9nuoYaftlA14zNfbPY7wgJ7i1DCeJshJ9XJvbHBQd3STt0XK1cT1fsppmQNb5IpTcb966MYT1rZaF5kTOgpWXM3XszbugmKbRG-gWD-gzBG2K8Iw/s1600/pgm_acn_means_vs_ends.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8UOhK8EEIq-EO9GsAu_pWmmuiCmWb9nuoYaftlA14zNfbPY7wgJ7i1DCeJshJ9XJvbHBQd3STt0XK1cT1fsppmQNb5IpTcb966MYT1rZaF5kTOgpWXM3XszbugmKbRG-gWD-gzBG2K8Iw/s1600/pgm_acn_means_vs_ends.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Let us ask a few pointed questions:<br />
<ul>
<li>What is there in the list of attempted projects across the span of strategic goals in support of the transformational vision? </li>
<li>What is/was their potential impact? </li>
<li>What is their actual impact so far? </li>
<li>Are there crucial gaps? </li>
<li>Have these gaps been un-addressed for a long time? (How long?)</li>
<li>What are the "nipped" projects that could have addressed them and what was their fate, why? </li>
</ul>
What does all of this indicate about the organisation?<br />
<br />
<u>What</u> should be done, <u>how</u>, <u>why</u>, by <u>whom</u>, <u>where</u>, <u>when</u>?<br />
<br />
(And yes, that is a framework for a transformational programme of projects!)<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>FOR DISCUSSION:</b><br />
<br />
<br />
XXXXGEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-26296070321726952302016-12-06T09:15:00.003-08:002017-01-06T02:10:11.216-08:00PM101 U6: Workshopxxx<br />
<br />
XXX<br />
<br />
<b>INTRODUCTION:</b> This workshop is meant to be partly online (across several weeks) and partly face to face, the workshop proper. The question now on the table is to set out how such schedules are to be created and effected.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Schedules</b></div>
<br />
Obviously, the workshop's information-based initial phases can be carried out across several weeks online, based on arranged registration, using bulletin boards for discussion [much easier to regulate than blogs . . . trolls, unfortunately are a fact of life]. Then, as we take up assignments to prepare concept notes and presentations for same, we can set up a face to face workshop.<br />
<br />
As an idea for arranging its timetable, perhaps this <a href="http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/MVAT_Kit.pdf">MVAT Kit launch seminar schedule</a> may help:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4MERgYHf1iYhz63I6-R6EMTunmyfG1NuLr7_MXUpSF4LplhZkZHqpOdlKs8k6O1PFSTmiSnPhJPlpvtujXTvfltlivdRk9hyphenhyphenvTXDVUg-B-rwVr0oOXoXBmHMRNXuqDLthLUj4qFuZ2DzT/s1600/mvat_seminars_format.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4MERgYHf1iYhz63I6-R6EMTunmyfG1NuLr7_MXUpSF4LplhZkZHqpOdlKs8k6O1PFSTmiSnPhJPlpvtujXTvfltlivdRk9hyphenhyphenvTXDVUg-B-rwVr0oOXoXBmHMRNXuqDLthLUj4qFuZ2DzT/s640/mvat_seminars_format.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The idea here is that there is a travel and registration day, with a keynote and official opening on day 1. Of course, if travel is not a big issue, the keynote can be arranged for early in the day (if appropriate, to catch the daily news cycle) with registration to follow. Which, can be as simple as filling in a sheet with details and cross checking on payment or sponsorship, plus distribution of workshop packs of documents, paper, souvenirs etc.<br />
<br />
( Of course, if there is a keynote address of newsworthy significance and/or the media are participants, a press kit should be distributed to media participants.)<br />
<br />
It is recommended that if there is an element of community mobilisation involved, there should be public, free evening sessions that have a somewhat promotional and issues character, issuing in a final declaration and call to action.<br />
<br />
Likewise, a one- [or, if there is a long weekend, two-] day summary session (that can use people who have been in the daily technical sessions as co-presenters) can be used for a general appreciation-level "taster" workshop-in-the-workshop. Attendees should be issued a statement of participation for this. It is at the end of this workshop that the public declaration and call for action should be finalised and officially adopted by motion then issued.<br />
<br />
During the daily sessions, technical issues can be addressed, a survey of the substance of this course can be delivered, and there can be presentation of assignments, with peer review using feedback forms.<br />
<br />
Those who attend the technical sessions should be given an option of certificates of participation, and certificates of achievement for presentations and following up with revision of concept notes based on feedback. If funds are available, perhaps several of the best can be taken forward as project proposals and awarded as projects to be implemented under a small projects scheme.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Tailored content</b></div>
<br />
Obviously, the main generic substance of this workshop is in the five units U1 - 5. <br />
<br />
However, depending on the specifics of a situation, tailored and additional contents can be arranged. In such a case, the certificates of participation and achievement should carry a dual branding. (This will require discussions with human resources and/or executives.)<br />
<br />
Tailoring will require additional preparation and perhaps adaptations. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Onward work</b></div>
<br />
There are now several possible project management professional certification schemes, of which PRINCE2 is probably the best suited to Caribbean circumstances. <br />
<br />
<b>FOR DISCUSSION:</b> Xxxx<br />
<br />
XXXXXXGEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214654088165086333.post-90276596156749608572016-12-06T09:14:00.004-08:002017-01-06T02:20:23.772-08:00PM101 U7: Summary, Outlook & Challengexxx<br />
<br />
This workshop has been a fast-paced introduction to project management for the Caribbean, with a view to development oriented projects of "simple" character. It is meant to deliver initial capability to carry out simple projects, and to support professionals working with more complex ones. beyond, one is encouraged to further develop capability, and PRINCE2 Foundation is suggested as a logical next step. <b>END OF STUB</b> GEM of The Kairos Initiativehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10622199013789009422noreply@blogger.com